US signals Russia sanctions will remain permanent despite tactical oil waivers

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has signaled a definitive stance on the administration’s geopolitical strategy, clarifying that Washington has no intention of abandoning its rigorous sanctions regime against Russia despite recent tactical shifts in the energy market.

Speaking on Fox News, Wright addressed the 30-day license recently granted to India for the procurement of Russian oil, characterizing the move as a calculated maneuver rather than a policy shift. “This is a purely pragmatic and short-term measure,” Wright stated. “There is absolutely no change in our Russia policy.”

The Secretary noted that the temporary flexibility was implemented specifically to “suppress the fear of oil shortages” and exert downward pressure on global prices. Reaffirming this message in an interview with ABC News, Wright also projected that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would resume in the near term, a development expected to further stabilize market conditions.

The Treasury’s calculus: ‘Oil waiting at sea brings no profit to Moscow’

At the start of the month, the US Treasury Department issued a waiver allowing India to purchase Russian oil loaded onto tankers by March 5, with transactions permitted until April 4. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the decision, arguing that these specific transactions would not provide “significant financial gain to the Russian government” because the crude in question was already in transit at sea. Bessent emphasized that Washington maintains a clear expectation for New Delhi to transition its energy procurement away from Russian supplies and toward US sources.

On March 7, Bessent further indicated that the administration might consider additional easing of restrictions on Russian oil as part of a broader strategy to curb aggressive global price spikes. According to the Secretary, the volume of sanctioned oil currently idling in tankers at sea has reached “hundreds of millions” of barrels. The urgency of these market interventions was underscored on March 9, when Brent crude surged to nearly $120 per barrel during intraday trading.

The India front: From 1.7 million barrels daily to the 10-million-barrel trail

Reporting from Bloomberg on March 6 revealed that Indian refiners have already moved to acquire approximately 10 million barrels of Russian oil currently adrift. This follows a period of significant volume; in 2025, New Delhi imported an average of 1.7 million barrels per day from Moscow, a rapid escalation of trade that began following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

In mid-2025, the Trump administration alleged that these purchases were “contributing to Moscow’s ability to finance the war” and subsequently imposed a 25% tariff on New Delhi, demanding a cessation of the trade. Those tariffs were eventually rescinded after India began to demonstrably reduce its import volumes from Russia.

Sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil: The cost of Budapest

In October, the US significantly escalated its economic pressure by imposing sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. This decisive action followed the collapse of a high-profile bilateral meeting in Budapest, where President Trump and Vladimir Putin were expected to deliberate on potential peace negotiations for the conflict in Ukraine.

The US Treasury justified the designations by citing a lack of diplomatic progress, asserting that the sanctions were a direct result of Russia “possessing no serious intention of ending the war.”

New sanctions package ready, held as leverage at the negotiating table

Information recently leaked to the press suggests that the Trump administration has prepared an extensive new package of sanctions against Moscow, held in reserve should peace negotiations reach a total impasse.

Sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that these pending restrictions are surgically focused on the energy sector. The proposed package reportedly targets the “shadow fleet” of vessels used to circumvent existing price caps and international restrictions, as well as the network of traders who facilitate these clandestine operations.