US weighs nuclear expansion and return to testing as New START treaty expires

Following the expiration of the New START treaty (START-III) on February 5—the final remaining strategic arms control agreement between the US and Russia—the United States is actively considering an expansion of its nuclear arsenal and a potential return to nuclear testing.

Reports from The New York Times, citing statements from Trump administration officials, indicate that Washington is evaluating two primary pathways: the deployment of additional nuclear assets and preparations for some form of nuclear test. Thomas DiNanno, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, addressed the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva on the day the treaty lapsed, characterizing the agreement as having imposed “unacceptable unilateral restrictions” on the US.

Among the options for expanding current nuclear forces, DiNanno highlighted the potential deployment of shorter-range weapons intended for tactical use. This comes as Russia has already developed a suite of advanced weaponry that fell outside the scope of New START, including the Burevestnik cruise missile, the Oreshnik hypersonic missile, and the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo.

Submarine capacity expansion planned

DiNanno noted that Washington possesses a significant amount of “unfettered nuclear potential.” According to The New York Times, this capacity could be rapidly realized through the Ohio-class submarine fleet. Each of these 14 vessels is equipped with 24 launch tubes for nuclear-armed missiles; however, under the restrictions of New START, four tubes on each submarine had been deactivated.

Reactivating these tubes would allow the US to add 54 missiles and several hundred warheads to its active arsenal. This move aligns with statements made by Donald Trump last year, in which he expressed a desire to resume nuclear testing to ensure the US remains on “equal footing” with China and Russia.

The administration’s deliberations encompass several scenarios, including the transfer of warheads from storage to active delivery vehicles and directives given to Trump’s aides to prepare for a resumption of testing. Despite these signals, Jill Hruby, who headed the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) under the Department of Energy until last year, cautioned that the situation remains fluid and lacks concrete data to confirm a final decision.

Negotiation strategy and regional reactions

The New York Times suggested that these escalatory moves might be designed to pressure other nuclear-armed nations back to the negotiating table. On the same day New START expired, the US announced that American and Russian military officials would resume contact regarding nuclear security.

However, the report warned that Russia and China may interpret these developments as a definitive decision by the US to grow its nuclear forces, potentially prompting reciprocal build-ups. While the US has not conducted a nuclear test since 1992, and both Russia and China have maintained their own moratoriums, North Korea carried out six underground tests between 2006 and 2017.

During his speech in Geneva, DiNanno alleged that the US government is aware of secret “nuclear explosive device tests” conducted by China, specifically citing an incident on June 22, 2020.

Allegations of secret Chinese tests spark debate

American officials noted that while intelligence experts continue to debate whether such a test occurred, no definitive conclusion has been reached. Furthermore, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) issued a statement on February 6 confirming that its global monitoring system detected no explosive events on the date in question.

DiNanno countered this by claiming that China utilized specialized technology designed to mask the detection of shockwaves from nuclear explosions. While he did not specify exactly how Washington would respond to these alleged provocations, DiNanno reiterated Trump’s insistence that the US will maintain parity with China and Russia in the nuclear domain.