Salman Shaikh, former adviser to the UN Middle East peace envoy, spoke to Harici. “I used to live in Gaza, and now I see that my house has been completely destroyed,” Shaikh told Harici, adding that China, together with the United States and other global and regional powers, can play a responsible role leading to a two-state solution.
The United States argued that the Gaza ceasefire resolution adopted by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was “non-binding but should be implemented”, while Israel criticised the resolution and said it would not abide by it.
The Washington Post, citing unnamed Pentagon and State Department officials, reported that the Biden administration had recently approved new arms shipments to Israel. Notably, the alleged arms approval came immediately after Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant’s visit to Washington.
Israel is currently building a corridor in the middle of the Gaza Strip from Israel to the sea, as well as a buffer zone about a kilometre wide on the border with Israel. These two initiatives are part of Israel’s plan to exercise security control over the territory.
We spoke to Salman Shaikh, who lived in Gaza between 2000-2003 and 2006-2006 and was political adviser to the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Lebanon during the 2006 war, about the ‘day after’ scenarios in Gaza, the two-state solution and the role of global powers.
Shaikh is Director of the Doha Centre at the Brookings Institution and his research focuses on conflict resolution, domestic politics and geopolitics in the Middle East, with a particular focus on the Levant (especially Syria, Lebanon and Iraq) and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
Let’s start talking about the government’s re-design in Palestine. Israel wants to control of post-war Gaza but the US government wants Palestinian Authority to have the control there. Do you think the change in the government is a new design plan for post-war?
Well, I would say that the revitalization of the Palestinians is obviously one of the priorities of the entire international community but also Palestinians themselves. Now, how we go about it is very important. It cannot be a us or any other decision. It cannot be even made in Moscow. It has to be a Palestinian effort. To start on the basis of the Palestinian Authority, I guess many would say, it is a normal start, it’s a place to start given that there is a Palestinian Authority in the official structures. But I would say that in fact, the work needs to start before that, and here, we really need Palestinian factions particularly Fatah and Hamas to come together and discuss a revitalized not just Palestinian Authority but a revitalized PLO and a revitalized Palestinian National Assembly. It’s on the basis of this then we can then look at the governance of the entire territory as well as Gaza.
What do you think about Palestinian government? Do you think a much more technocratic government will be much better?
For any governance and either the West Bank but especially Gaza it’s going to be extremely difficult, given the actions of the Israeli government. We’ve just seen how the Israeli government has been withholding Palestinian tax revenues. This is Palestinian money which the Israelis have not handed over until really severe pressure from the Americans and the Biden Administration. I believe that we have to think about a more comprehensive approach to Palestinian governance. And that starts with a certain international political will for establishing a Palestinian State and for a political process that will lead to that. As part of that, then, we can start thinking about Palestinian government.
Israeli government approved an operation to Rafah which is very much criticized by Egyptian government. It’s a big crisis between Israel and Egypt. So, as ceasefire is not achieved, will this lead to a new uprising in East Jerusalem and West Bank? How do you see reaction of the population living there?
The situation is desperate. I used to work for the United Nations and lived in Gaza. My home I’ve now seen has been completely wiped out. There is only sand along the beach road where it was. So, I’m afraid, yes, what we are looking at and we have to take seriously from the speeches of Israeli government ministers that they do intend to go into Gaza. This is what Netanyahu himself says. What is undermining the efforts to try and achieve a more comprehensive ceasefire, of course, are the Israeli government’s actions. Whether it’s in the north of Gaza right now, or Rafah or the West Bank and the daily incursions and killings that we are now seeing in the West Bank but also with regards to Israel’s border with Lebanon. These are all hot areas. Until and when we have a real political will to get the Israeli government to stop this, particularly from Washington, I’m afraid Rafah or other such things will happen. The situation even if we can’t bear to think of that will get worse. That is something, I think, should exercise us all and work for the international community led by the Americans, to say “enough is enough and this has to stop”.
If you objectively evaluate the mediation of the US, which today fully supports Israel, a two-state solution initiative led by the US has failed. What other actors can step in for a two-state solution? Please also give us your opinion on the guarantor model proposed by Turkey.
We need to responsibly and effectively internationalize the solutions to this conference. What do I mean by that? We need an international conference which the Chinese and others have suggested, which, in my view, should be co-sponsored by the US and China, which creates a series of working groups, which helps us in the transition of Gaza and launches a more credible political process. We need an international contact group which includes regional states, which includes Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan as well as the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia,crucially Qatar and the UAE as well as key international countries, maybe the permanent members of the UN Security Council, which of course include the US, the UK, France but also China and controversially some would say Russia. Why is that? Because we need now through this internationalization a clear mandate for the establishment of a Palestinian state. In fact, on the way towards this the international community should declare the end point which is a Palestinian state in a UN Security Council or UN General Assembly resolution. Don’t forget! It was the UN that led to the partition of this land in 1947-48 and it is now, in my view, the UN which should give the mandate for the creation of a Palestinian state. If that does not happen, I’m afraid, rather than the remaking of the United Nations through Gaza and the Palestinian-Israeli issue, we will see the end of it.
Why do you think China is so important? Is it just because of having a chair opposite of the US?
No, the world is not the same as it was even 10 years ago. We, now, live in a much more multi-polar, multi-networked world of which China is clearly seen as a global power. This is not to put in more competition between the great powers. In fact, it’s to avoid it. We’ve seen how China has played a role in the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran last year an agreement which it seems to be holding. And I believe that China can play a responsible role with the United States and with key other global and regional powers in taking us to a new process and a Palestinian State as well as an Israeli state.
There is no part in Israel that supports the two-state solution. They just want to erase the whole state of Palestine. Are the two-state solution discussions realistic still?
I’m sure those who look on the ground and who have seen the ever-growing Israeli settlements in the West Bank as well as what is being done to Gaza today, with calls to reset Gaza by Israelis, would be very skeptical. I can understand that. But in my view, the two-state solution still offers the best way forward for an Israeli-Palestinian negotiation based on the borders of 1967. This is also about international legitimacy as well as producing practical ideas. The two-state solution is still probably the best basis on which to have those negotiations.
There are mass killings in Gaza especially targeting the group of people who gather to get the humanitarian aid. Do you think the United States is being a shield for Israel? I mean what is the thing that Israel is leaning on?
It’s a very good question. You know, in 2006, I was working for the United Nations in the Lebanon war. And at that time, even though it was a very difficult war especially for Lebanese, the US administration led by President George W. Bush and Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State effectively put guardrails around the actions of Israel at that moment. We did not see that in this conflict. In fact, we saw with the bear hug of President Biden, a good friend of Israel. But he was not prepared to put guardrails on the actions of this Israeli government, probably the most extreme Israeli government that we have seen. And now we are seeing the results of that. And this is something that I think is affecting the Biden Administration in internally; it’s affecting American society. We’re seeing it in other Western capitals. There are now deep divisions which are coming out. So, standing by Israel and such an extreme government as it breaks international law, international humanitarian law, is not the way to go. It will not make Israel any securer. In fact, on the contrary. What I understand right now, is that there is a deep debate going on in Washington. They are trying to restrain Netanyahu and his government but it’s too weak. And in my view, there is not just confusion; there may well be chaos. Because Benjamin Netanyahu and some of the extreme members of his cabinet, see an opportunity to actually expand their operations. For Netanyahu, of course, it’s also his survival. This is a very bad situation. If the Americans are now not able to put a hard stop, yes, many will conclude that the US doesn’t have a legitimate or credible role when it comes to the future of Israel and Palestine.
According to you what is the next day scenario for Gaza?
Well, I’ll give you two. The bad scenario is that we see an intensification of this conflict into Rafah and even the forced displacement of people outside Gaza, a second Nakbah. Even if Egypt is determined for that and the international community says it is determined, for that not to happen, we’re already seeing the humanitarian effects of that with starvation and taking place amongst its citizens, especially its children and and women. That is the worst case and of course that spawns a broader regional conflict. So, we may only be in one chapter of a much longer conflict than we are right now. A better scenario is for the international community to act with one voice to affect a ceasefire for us to go to an international conference that sets in place the transition of this conflict, the transition of Gaza towards a political process that leads to a Palestinian State.
If an operation by Israel carried out on Rafah, how do you think this will affect Egypt and Israel relations?
I think it would put them under severe strain whether or not it leads to a suspension of the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel. We don’t know. These are very uncharted and dangerous waters for Israel to thread. And if it does, it will be undermining its own security. Practical effect: you will see the biggest most populated Arab count country suspending its hard fought and negotiated peace agreement with this. And this is why I come back to the point that there is only one path, which is the path of ceasefire now. and then creating an international mandate for the eventual establishment of a Palestinian State alongside Israel.
