Since the US withdrew most of its troops from Iraq and then Afghanistan, the western analysts are mentioning the so called ‘vacancy’ in the middle east more often. Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the China-GCC and China-Arab summits will be certainly viewed, at least by some people, as a major move to fill this ‘vacancy’.
Not filling the ‘vacancy’, but finding the balance
However, there were not such vacancies at all in the middle east. The peoples there have their own histories, cultures, religions and interests, all of which keep shaping the geopolitics of the region.
It is true that the US had and still has great influence in the economy, politics and security around the gulf, but it has never really controlled it. From the 1973 oil crisis to the recent disapproval of the price cap on Russian oil, the Saudis have proved again and again that it is an independent regional power and has global influence. It is definitely not a dependency of the US.
On the other hand, China has also proved that it is a reliable partner. After the US and the USSR refused to sell Saudi ballistic missiles, China filled the ‘vacancy’ of Saudi’s arsenal with DF-3 ICBM in 1987. It is believed that the now-obsolete missiles has already been replaced by China’s DF-21 recently.
The two countries have already been close partners for decades cooperating in sensitive top secret projects. By the way, Foreign Policy magazine just published a piece of opinion commenting that ‘Riyadh’s Monogamous Marriage to Washington Is Over’. The word ‘monogamous’ doesn’t reflect the truth, but only the arrogance of the west, it even has a somewhat embarrassing tone of sarcasm on the marriage customs of the middle east.
Chinese leaders of fully aware of the sophisticated backgrounds of the middle east. Under the pressure of the US and being disappointed of the ill-fated nuclear deal, Iran finally tried to move closer to China and signed a 25-year agreement to expand its ties with China. But between Iran and Saudi Arabia, there is a long-time competition and mistrust, which could be even dated back to the Sassanian Persia and the Arab Empire.
China would like to see the two powers resolve their problems without its intervention. However no one knows when the problems will be resolved. Before the resolution happens, maintaining the balance is the only reasonable way.
Similarly, China has always supported Palestine and reassured this on the summits while still keeping its friendship with Israel.
This does not mean that China will sell DF-21 to Iran as well or buy the same amount of oil from the two countries. It doesn’t mean that China would be entirely in favor of Palestinian with its territorial disputes with Israeli, either. That’s impossible. Xi will not visit Iran soon either, but a vice PM will.
To make everyone happy is surely a tough task. What China did and will do is to listen, then to find the core interests that China can help with or boost without offending other nations.
Furthermore, it is necessary to have the leaders of China and other countries to meet face to face. It has been decided during the visit that the Chinese and Saudis will have summits every two years. The leaders can settle things down, resolve any misunderstanding and discuss their visions.
Not neo-geopolitics, but a new globalization pattern
Although visions might not be realized as one wished but it can always serve as a platform for others to connect with. Saudi Arabia released its Vision 2030 six years ago. Back then, it appeared more like ‘the Arabian Nights’ fantasy to some observers. Can the Saudis even really start the reform?
Then Saudi Arabia changed steadily. New Crown Prince, new energy, new religious tendency, the new city Neom… and Saudi women now have more rights than ever.
But who can cooperate with Saudi Arabia along the long way of reform to provide engineering capabilities and technologies without criticizing? The answer is explicit. China.
Some experts indulge in elaborating on the oil trade in RMB or even the future collapse of the petro-dollars. Please don’t overestimate the internationalization of yuan. In any sense, China is very far away from taking over the monetary hegemony. China is glad to see more RMB being used just because there is too little Chinese Yuan being used on the international market right now. The proportion of RMB settlement is much smaller than that of China’s trade volume in the global economy.
Becoming a monetary hegemony might turn out to be a ‘trap’ for an ambitious power. The countries that once enjoyed somewhat monetary hegemony always arguably ended up de-industrialized.
Despite some ideological divergence, the neo-conservatives and the neo-liberals of the US shared similar views of the geopolitics in the middle east. It seemed that they both loved oil (and their own interests in this industry) and tried their best to linger in the middle east.
Meanwhile some fans of the neoclassical geopolitics picked up Mackinder’s theory again. They believed that China pushed forward the one belt one road initiative in order to control the Heartland, especially the central Asia, and stretch out to control the peripheral areas including the middle east. It seemed that they were clever enough to neglect the first step of Mackinder’s doctrine – who controls East Europe controls the Heartland, only referring to it when they were accusing Russia.
China wants Saudi to use more RMB, but does not want to topple the US dollar. China needs oil and would like to keep the price stable, too. Nevertheless, both China and the Gulf states know that the future lies in renewable energies. China does want a reliable tie with the World Island, but does not want to revive a conflict between the Land and Sea powers.
So what is China’s ambition? A new globalization pattern.
Globalization 1.0 was based on colonialism and has been discarded historically. During Globalization 2.0 which finally dominated by the Washington consensus, most of the countries around the world still remained poor. The transnational corporate enterprises grabbed large amounts of profits and left very little in the home countries. Trickle-down economics also proved to be a myth. The middle class is shrinking while low income class is continuously growing.
China wants a more equitable version of globalization with a universal modernization. Continuous development and improvement to living standards could be the true ‘universal value’.
The question is what benefits China will gain? I don’t want to give you the impression that China is a saint helping others in the dangerous jungle. China is a big country that has developing provinces and developed ones. It learned from its own experience that if the former makes progress, there would be a bigger market, more human capital, more cooperation opportunities and a more stable community.
Even though win-win sounds overly idealistic and has been taunted as “China will win twice” by someone, but it is worth a try. What the West did has proved that an empire, whether it was colonial or neo-conservative or neo-liberal, might reap resources for a period of time but the consequences can be devastating. We need not only a sustainable environment, but also a sustainable global political system.
Hence, here is something that China might ultimately want from Saudi Arabia and other countries in the middle east, which is not to view China as an other empire.
Some Arabian elites know that ancient China was large and at times very powerful. But after all, it was quite different from the Arabian, Ottoman, Russian and British Empires. The CCP China is certainly not a reincarnated empire. It doesn’t follow the footsteps of the U.S. and the USSR, which are always described as modern empires at least by their opponents.
Expanding and then being backfired is the fate of all empires. Let’s try more win-win projects and the equal dialogue of the two great civilizations.
