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Who will be next PM as protest continues against alleged vote-rigging in Pakistan

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Pakistan’s surprising election results have pushed the political parties into coalition talks but at the same time the people who voted in large numbers, have continued to protest for five consecutive days over alleged vote-rigging in the 8 February parliamentary elections.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI, and the Jamaat-e-Islami party had called on their supporters to take to the streets and rally outside the election commission office.

Thousands of supporters of Imran Khan, who is in jail over fraud allegations, and other political parties have blocked key highways in the southwestern province of Balochistan to protest the alleged rigging, but the Pakistani election authorities rejected allegations pertaining to rigging during the elections.

Intendent candidates backed by Khan were able to secure 93 out of 265 seats contested in the National Assembly, or lower house of parliament. It has been reported that Khan’s candidates had secured more seats compared to other political parties who hatched conspiracy and ousted him from power nearly two years ago.

Pakistan election body rejected vote-rigging in general elections

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has strongly refuted allegations of vote-rigging during the elections but acknowledged the occurrence of a few irregularities.

The electoral watchdog acknowledged that it does not deny the occurrence of a few irregularities and that relevant forms were available for investigation, ECP said in a statement, adding immediate decisions are being taken on complaints filed.

Supporters of Pakistani former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), block the Peshawar-Islamabad motorway as part of their protest against the results of the general election, in Peshawar, Pakistan, February 12, 2024. REUTERS

However, the election body said that the electoral process was peacefully organized despite “difficulties and issues” and furthered that conducting the elections smoothly was a “major operation” which was completed successfully.

Commenting on the delay in election results, the ECP said that the suspension of mobile services on February 8 created some hindrances in the sending of electronic data by presiding officers.

“Except for some constituencies, the results of the elections were completed within one-and-a-half days,” the statement said, adding, “the delay in results in some constituencies did not benefit or harm any specific political party.”

Despite 265 seats in the National Assembly, the polling was also held for 590 seats of provincial assemblies.

Caretaker PM says election result delays due to security reason

Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar said that the election result was delayed due to security reasons, adding that the pool was a “level-playing field” for all.

“There were large reports throughout the country that these non-state actors, these terrorists, are planning to come and sabotage the whole process. So, what was the choice with the government to itself from so-called accusations of meddling into the election, or go for the protection of the people. We choose the second,” Kakar added.

He furthered, “level-playing field was of course available as a process to everyone and all the participants. If it was not available then how come you have a largest group in the National Assembly which is being supported by PTI, I mean they’re the single largest group and still we are being accused that we managed the rigging.”

Political parties split on whether to join a coalition government

After Khan’s party had secured more seats in the National Assembly no other choice left for major political parties like the three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari for a coalition talk.

Though now it is very clear that the Pakistan Muslim League (N) would dominate the coalition government in center, some of its top figures are reluctant to give much more share to the Pakistan People’s Party. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek Insaf affiliated independents are in majority but they are scattered and some of them, mostly from Punjab are joining PML(N).

The PML-N party of former PM Nawaz Sharif says it continues to negotiate with the PPP to clinch a partnership. Reuters

So far results of 264 out of 266 National Assembly seats have been declared by the Election Commission of Pakistan. According to these results, the independents over 95pc affiliated with PTI are dominating the list with 92 and they are followed by PML(N) with 79, PPP with 54 and MQM with 17. After notification of reserve seats for women and non-Muslim minorities, the PML(n) like to undue PTI backed independents but it will be hard for it to have its own government in center.

Whatever may be the final figures of the National Assembly, PML(N) has no option other than entering into an agreement with PPP for establishing a coalition government. So far negotiations between the two parties are progressing and likely to ink the agreement in the very near future. According to reports, the PM office is likely to be retained by PML(N) and the President and Speaker offices would go to PPP. It is premature to say but Shahbaz Sharif is acceptable not only to the PPP but also to the powerful military establishment.

Is the coalition government a better option?

Unlike in the past, this time PML(n) vocal against military establishment like Khawaja Saad Rafique, Sheikh Rohail Asghar and others had also failed to make routes to parliament. There are reports that like outgoing caretaker government, ministers, advisors and other nominees for key official posts will be required clearance from state organs.

Like the capital (Islamabad), similar is the situation in Balochistan where no party got a single majority. Both PPP and JUI(F) are in majority with 11 berths each in the house of 51. PML(N) is second with 10 whereas strength of independents is 6. All nationalists both Pushtoons and Baluch, remained with single digits. Situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is favorable for PTI whereas its backed independents got an overwhelming majority. The PTI is in the position of its own government but its leaders are divided regarding future political strategies.

Ironically, despite fueling or strengthening its position in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PTI is now ahead with capable leadership. Almost all its top leaders like ex-speaker Asad Qaisar, former federal and provincial ministers like Ali Muhammad Khan, Sheheryar Afridi, Atif Khan, Ms Shandana Gulzar, Arbab Sher Ali, Ali Asghar Khan and others were elected to National Assembly. Only ex-Federal Minister Ali Amen Gandha Pur elected to both National and Provincial Assemblies and he decided to quit the NA seat and eyeing on the office of Chief Minister but some of his own party fellows like Atif Khan from Mardan are in his opposition.

Like past, 2024 elections will also fail to settle crippling issues in Pakistan

“No doubt to mention that like in the past, 2024 elections also would face failure in settling the issues ahead to the country and its people,” Shamaim Shahid, a Pakistani political expert said.

Speaking to Harici, he said that beside other difficulties, Pakistan is facing hard issues like “economic disorder, bad governance, security, religious extremism and militancy.”

He went on saying that all those who reached into parliament lacked capacities and capabilities in handling these issues. However, there is a possibility if the powerful military establishment gives up its decade’s old behavior of “interference and intervention in politico-administrative affairs of the country.

ANP Senator Afrasiab Khattak

As Mr. Shahid hinted at a bad security situation, at least three people were killed and five others wounded when unidentified attackers opened fire on a vehicle in the rally of Pakistan Peoples Party. The incident happened when people on board the vehicle were going to congratulate PPP candidate Ahmed Karim Kundu for his victory in a provincial assembly set in the general elections, according to DAWN.

A police official said that the incident happened in the limits of Hattala police station and said that immediately police reached the spot after receiving information and shifted the dead and injured to hospital.

No free and fair elections in the history of Pakistan

On 8 February, the election day in Pakistan, the process was apparently conducted in a transparent way and no rigging was seen at first place when the people approached polling stations to cast their votes, said a Pakistani veteran politician.

Former Pakistani senator, Afrasib Khattak, said that rigging in the election came after the process of counting votes started and the people staged protests against it.

“People went to vote enthusiastically, but immediately turned to the streets to protest against enormous election rigging being designed by the military establishment,” Khattak, who is also a leader of the National Democratic Movement, told Harici.

He lamented that some Pakistan authorities resorted to violence and some police officials started beating up some protestors and even shooting directly toward them, resulting in casualties.

Regarding vote-rigging, Khan said that the first rigging in the election was when Imran Khan’s political party was barred from election campaign, and second had been carried out on the night of the election day.

“In some states the majority of rigging happened against Khan’s candidates, but most of the political parties have the same complaint that the election was not conducted in a transparent, free and fair way,” he added.

He furthered that violence had erupted in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and in Waziristan as well in which an armed attack happened against Mohsin Dawar, the Chairman of the National Democratic Movement in Waziristan. “Three people were killed and Mr. Dawar received injures in the attack.”

Free elections were only conducted in 1970

Khattak furthered that rigging in the election has occurred in such a massive way that no political parties have the capability to do it except the establishment. “Vote-rigging occurred in all states. It is not the case in one or two provinces. And also, to force the officials of the election body to accept the election result could only be the work of the Pakistani military establishment,” he furthered.

“The only one free and fair election in the history of Pakistan was in 1970, in which a politically party with majority of them were Bangali’s, had won the election, but the opposition didn’t accept the result, unleashing deep political crisis that caused separation of Pakistan and formation of Bangladesh as an Independent country,” he added.

Since that, in every election, the military establishment has interfered in the elections.

Khattak furthered that no parties had won the election and now major political parties are considering the formation of coalition government, which he believes is not an easy job.

“Within 21 days after the election, the government must be formed, which means at the first week of March, the government should be announced and before that the political parties should negotiate form a coalition government, and this is a time-consuming process,” he added.

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South Korea plans $120B spend on eight US nuclear power plants

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South Korea will spend $120 billion to construct eight nuclear power plants in the US under an agreement that provides for $350 billion in investments in exchange for lower tariffs.

The South Korean government also announced that Seoul and Washington will begin examining a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska comprising a large-scale pipeline to transport natural gas from the north of the state to the south, alongside the construction of an LNG terminal for exports overseas.

Seoul stated that a decision regarding the LNG project will be made following a commercial feasibility study. However, US President Donald Trump said that South Korea would invest $54 billion in the project, pointing to an apparent lack of full coordination between the two sides on the matter.

Trade and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said in a statement: “This announcement opens a new horizon of cooperation where the two countries join forces to develop joint commercial ventures in strategic areas directly linked to economic security and future sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and LNG.”

“We will adhere to the principle of prioritising national interests and investing solely in commercially viable projects,” Kim said.

Speaking at the White House, Trump characterised South Korea’s plans as “one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in American history”.

The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung roughly one year ago at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in South Korea, where they agreed on the creation of a $350 billion investment fund.

Under that agreement, $150 billion was allocated to the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion to other sectors. In return, the US announced it would reduce tariffs imposed on goods imported from South Korea from 25% to 15%.

Under the nuclear power project, South Korea’s state-controlled utility will build two plants in the US, while Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric will construct six plants.

According to the South Korean government, this will mark the first instance in which a foreign country builds its own nuclear power plants in the US.

South Korean firms are also evaluating the possibility of acquiring a stake in Westinghouse as part of negotiations over sharing profits generated by the project.

South Korea additionally announced that it will build a $22.3 billion natural gas-fired power plant in Texas with a capacity of 6,472 megawatts.

The facility will be designed to supply electricity directly to nearby data centres. The project’s first phase is targeted to begin commercial operations in 2029, with full-capacity operations slated for 2032.

Seoul also disclosed that it had agreed to allow the US to receive 50% of the profits generated by the projects until South Korea recoups all of its investments.

After South Korea fully recovers its total investment amount, 90% of the profits will go to the US.

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DeepSeek engineer warns AI will lead to communism or Cyberpunk

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Shengyu Liu, a low-level hardware architecture and processor kernel optimisation specialist at China-based artificial intelligence organisation DeepSeek, has published an assessment addressing the existential crisis facing software developers and humanity amid the pace of AI advancement.

A senior engineer who personally coded the core attention mechanism kernels for the DeepSeek v4.1 model, Liu stated that the technology he developed with his own hands will very soon render his professional expertise redundant and has initiated the phasing out of human labour.

Arguing that AI will steer future societies either towards a communism in which productive forces are entirely emancipated or towards a dark Cyberpunk dystopia where resources are concentrated within mega tech monopolies, Liu highlighted the vital importance of the open-source software struggle for humanity.

Noting that the DeepSeek v4.1 model released a few days ago raised the capability ceiling for small-scale systems, Liu stressed that transformation across the sector is advancing at an inconceivable pace.

Recalling that the transition from initial chatbots with context lengths of only a few thousand semantic tokens to reasoning-capable contemporary models took just two years, the senior engineer observed that the emergence of autonomous agents executing complex instructions within test and execution environments spanned a period of merely one and a half years.

Stating that AI will attain the capacity for self-improvement and full integration into physically embodied systems within the next few years, Liu described the transformation this development has generated in his own field:

“AI is taking incredible strides in processor kernel design and authoring, the field for which I am responsible. Within the span of merely a year, it transformed from a modest assistant that merely scanned technical documentation, read code, and identified bugs into a master that independently reads GPU machine-language instructions and hardware-level instruction sequences directly. Using professional profiling tools, it inspects instruction latency stalls and optimises processor kernels autonomously. In the not-so-distant future, it will also acquire the ability to independently design instruction scheduling, weigh the performance of different plans, implement them, and bring them to perfection.”

Expressing pride in the success achieved by the DeepSeek v4.1 model as a concrete fruit of his own labour, Liu noted that he personally coded the system’s most critical attention mechanism components, stating that the model’s success serves as an endorsement of his craft, yet the superhuman nature of technological progress remains unstoppable.

“I want to lead my own revolution”

Liu considers it a certainty that within six months to a year, AI will generate processor kernels far superior to his own.

Pointing to the rapidly widening chasm between the human mind and machine capacity, the senior engineer said: “AI can think at 300 semantic tokens per second, write a line of code in half a second, and complete an entire block of code in 20 seconds. I cannot do this. AI can continually increase model depth, thinking intensity, external tool invocation frequency, and processing parallelism; I cannot achieve this.”

Emphasising that software engineers have been drawn into a race knowingly preparing their own demise, Liu explained why he works day and night on optimisation efforts that accelerate his own obsolescence:

“Throughout history, humanity has never hesitated when it comes to self-destruction. Knowing that the more flawless the kernels I write, the faster our new model’s training and inference speeds will be, the more its capabilities will multiply, and the earlier I will be sidelined, why do I continue to optimise with all my strength? On one level, this work is like a game to me; it brings me indescribable pleasure. When I discover a new method or see the performance curve of my code rise, the thrill I feel is no different from that of a record-breaking speed enthusiast. Moreover, I feel immense pride when I outperform the official code of hardware vendors.”

Pointing to the ruthless competition on the other side of the coin, Liu stated: “Yet the primary reason is this: even if I quit today or deliberately slowed the progress of our models, other companies would continue their work and eventually eliminate me anyway. Naturally, no one wishes to see their own profession overturned; however, if this revolution is inevitable, I want the force that unseats me to originate from my own hands. In a landscape where everyone is so focused on self-destruction, I, too, am forced to join this relentless arms race.”

“The din of machines crushes the joy of craft”

Preparing for the day when AI surpasses his level of expertise, Liu noted that he will not face unemployment, but will be forced to switch domains.

Stating that his judgement, cognitive capacity, and initiative will allow him to remain at the core table of the industry, the specialist engineer observed that this adaptation entails a heavy emotional toll.

Explaining that shifting fields means abandoning an area to which he is deeply devoted, Liu described his sense of dislocation:

“Switching domains means leaving behind the hardware kernel design, coding, and optimisation work to which I have dedicated years and an ardent passion, only to become a machine operator of AI agents. In the past, my personal curiosity, my area of expertise, and industry demand were in complete harmony. Now, AI has become far more adept than I am in the exact domain of my expertise. Industry demand has shifted away from the human writing high-performance kernel code toward an operator prompting AI to produce such code more rapidly. To bow to this industry demand, I must abandon the field I love and steer toward an unknown path.”

Illustrating the transformation through the metaphor of a traditional craft, Liu continued:

“Consider, for instance, being a master sweater knitter who achieves exquisite patterns and colour harmonies. The quality of the fabric you weave is so superior that wealthy patrons from surrounding villages seek you out, earning you a good living. What is more, sitting by the window sipping tea while looking out at mountains, streams, and animals brings you deep peace as you knit in silence. Then one day, a machine is invented; you feed it only wool and a pattern template, and it knits the sweater identically to your manual craft, only far faster. Realising your competitors will easily overtake you with this tool, you begin using it yourself. Thanks to your 20 years of accumulated experience, you remain faster than your competitors even while operating the machine. Yet the elegance of those hours spent listening to the rain and working stitch by stitch is crushed and extinguished under the mechanical din of the machine. That quiet by the window will be experienced for the final time this summer. I must leave my talent behind in yesterday and become an armoured-machine driver; my hands hold more gears now, but my heart has lost its rhythm.”

“AI in the hands of the unskilled spells disaster”

Looking beyond personal sorrow to societal and pedagogical risks, Liu focused on signs of decay within the education system.

Noting that the new generation of students tends to delegate coursework assignments to AI, the veteran engineer remarked that a student who spends a few cents to have AI produce top-grade code within minutes, rather than sweating for eight hours to obtain an imperfect result, will be stripped of foundational skills.

Emphasising that this shortcut will erode vital engineering abilities such as systems building, code architecture design, abstraction, and anticipating future requirements during development, Liu expressed deep concern:

“Will this foundational engineering mindset fade into history like the skill of writing machine language in past eras, or will it retain permanent value like the capacity to grasp entire computer architectures from software down to hardware? If this comprehension continues to hold value, the situation is dire indeed. Because when an individual with weak engineering fundamentals is equipped with AI, they will produce mountains of garbage code far faster than before. This will plant countless ticking time bombs deep within software systems, driving the world toward a far more precarious, ramshackle structure liable to collapse at any moment.”

Pointing out that raw authority and power will become decisive in the future world rather than technical expertise and intellect, the senior engineer stated that only time can answer these fundamental questions.

“A binary future: Communism or a dark corporate dystopia”

Observing that humanity has arrived at a crossroads with the advancement of AI, Shengyu Liu emphasised that future society will evolve toward one of two radical poles, which he termed communism and Cyberpunk:

“With the momentum of AI, future society will probably be cast toward one of two extremes: communism or Cyberpunk 2077. In the first option, productive forces are completely unshackled, domination over the means of production is broken, and human living standards make an unprecedented leap forward. In the second option, a small tech oligopoly consolidates all resources. While a privileged elite gains access to the most advanced AI and cutting-edge technologies, ascending almost to a state of mechanical divinity, the overwhelming majority of society is left with extremely weak and constrained AIs. Upward social mobility becomes impossible; to reach a higher class, one must possess the most powerful AI, yet access to that AI requires already having been born into that class. An unbreakable cycle of exploitation is thus established.”

Openly criticising the monopolistic and closed models adopted by Western tech companies, Liu posed a pointed question:

“In a scenario where the world’s most advanced AI remains permanently monopolised by a company like Anthropic, do you believe the future will evolve toward communism or a dark Cyberpunk dystopia? Go ahead and guess.”

Stating his conviction that top-tier AI must be delivered openly, transparently, and free of charge to all humanity, the DeepSeek engineer expressed a lack of trust that actors such as Anthropic or OpenAI would uphold this mission.

Likening the possibility of Anthropic alone controlling artificial general intelligence to the catastrophe of nuclear technology falling into the hands of fascist regimes during World War II, Liu concluded with his rationale for remaining at DeepSeek:

“That is precisely why I chose to remain at DeepSeek and why I am holding the line here. We build powerful, lightning-fast AIs offered for the common good of all humanity, and we release them as open source. This is the path to pulling the world back from the brink of that dark corporate dystopia and liberating productive forces for the benefit of the people.”

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Analysts warn new surge in Chinese exports threatens global markets

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Financial Times writer Ryan Avent has written that a fresh, rapid surge in China’s trade surplus could signal a new wave of the “China shock”.

Economists define the “China shock” as a spike in Chinese exports to global markets that intensifies competition for manufacturers in advanced economies and curtails employment in certain sectors.

The term gained widespread currency after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, accelerating the inflow of inexpensive Chinese goods into the US and other nations.

The US was the country hit hardest by the initial shockwave. Between 1999 and 2011, more than 2 million jobs were lost because domestic producers were unable to withstand the competition.

Avent argued that the effects of the initial wave are still felt across the American economy because China failed to carry out the rebalancing that the world expected.

The share of net exports in China’s gross domestic product contracted during the 2007-2019 period, allowing Western nations to focus on national security and other matters.

Avent reported that the trade surplus is now escalating rapidly once again, posing a threat to the economies of wealthy nations.

The writer pointed to the stagnation of domestic demand following the collapse of the real estate market six years ago as one cause of this surplus. Another prominent factor is the Beijing government’s channelling of massive resources into manufacturing in pursuit of self-sufficiency.

Attention was also drawn to the role of the depreciating yuan. An appreciation of the currency could require China to alter its foreign exchange interventions, reduce purchases of foreign currency and assets, and sell those assets off. That scenario could trigger currency depreciation and rising interest rates in other countries.

The Wall Street Journal also reported in the spring of 2024 on economists’ concerns regarding a potential second wave.

Experts predicted that global markets would once again be flooded with inexpensive goods, stating that China was manufacturing far beyond domestic demand to overcome its economic troubles.

Moreover, it was stressed that China is now competing in high-technology fields such as automobiles, computer chips, and complex machinery manufacturing.

Meanwhile, Vasiliy Kashin, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) University in Moscow, told the Russian media outlet RBC that the US has imposed sanctions on the Chinese economy since the first shock period, adding that these measures would very likely tighten in the event of a fresh export wave.

According to assessments reported by the Financial Times, this new process could also shake China’s own economy. Alongside rising output, entry-level manufacturing plants across the country are turning toward automation and reducing personnel.

This trend could trigger a painful departure from labour-intensive production, leaving millions unemployed. Manufacturing activities in China that previously capitalised on cheap labour are shifting to other Southeast Asian countries.

The Beijing administration rejected allegations that its industrialisation steps pose risks to other countries. As reported by the Xinhua news agency, China’s Ministry of Commerce stressed that claims of a “China shock 2.0” are groundless. The ministry stated:

“The US and other Western countries have circulated the so-called ‘China shock 2.0’ narrative, asserting that China’s industrial development has shaken Western monopolies and narrowed growth space for Global South countries. This claim is unsupported by concrete data and is entirely unfounded.”

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