Why the Putin-Zelensky summit is stuck in deadlock?

Gevorg Mirzoyan, a political scientist from Russia’s Financial University, stated that the likelihood of a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky taking place in the near future is low.

In his analysis published in Vzglyad, one of Russia’s leading diplomacy outlets, Mirzoyan noted that despite expectations from the US, Europe, and Kyiv, Moscow sees fundamental obstacles to entering negotiations.

According to Mirzoyan, US President Donald Trump aims to win a Nobel Peace Prize by directly managing the process between Moscow and Kyiv. Kyiv, on the other hand, seeks to prevent Washington from striking a deal that excludes Ukraine and to boost morale within its domestic audience.

The Russian political scientist stressed that Moscow, through Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, has signaled that talks could be raised to the ministerial level, but emphasized that three major obstacles stand in the way of a leaders’ summit.

“Preconditions not fulfilled”

Mirzoyan identified the failure to meet preconditions as the first and most significant obstacle. He explained, “Russia says that a leaders’ meeting can only take place at the stage when agreements already reached are ready to be signed,” summarizing Moscow’s expectations.

The analysis pointed out that Kyiv has not taken concrete steps in response to Moscow’s demands, which include the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from Donbass, recognition of the regions annexed by Russia through constitutional referendums, and Ukraine’s transition to a neutral status.

Legitimacy problem of the agreement

The second obstacle concerns the legitimacy of any peace agreement. Citing Putin’s stance, Mirzoyan stated: “Putin emphasizes that the individual sitting at the table is not important; what matters is that a legitimate signature is placed under the document.”

He noted that the inability to hold elections in wartime Ukraine has deepened legitimacy debates over Zelensky’s term in office, adding that Zelensky is not inclined to resign and transfer authority to Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk.

“Security guarantees cannot be ensured”

The third obstacle, Mirzoyan underlined, is ensuring the leaders’ security. He explained that such a summit would require protection by both Russia’s Federal Protective Service and Ukraine’s State Protection Directorate. However, deep mutual distrust and accusations of terrorist attacks make this arrangement unworkable.

Mirzoyan also stressed that delegating security to a third country is unacceptable for both Moscow and Kyiv.

He concluded his analysis with the words: “Such a meeting may serve less to accelerate the end of the war than to allow Zelensky to prolong the process without fulfilling the preconditions.”