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Why Washington avoids an abrupt collapse in Venezuela?

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Danilo Caruso, a professor at the Federal Institute of Rio de Janeiro (IFRJ), argues that oil’s central role in the Venezuelan economy is key to understanding the limitations of the United States’ interventionist strategy toward the country.

According to the academic, an abrupt overthrow of the Chavista government could trigger a scenario of instability affecting oil production in the short, medium, and long term—a result that would not serve Washington’s interests.

In this context, Caruso evaluates that the most effective strategy for the US is to exert pressure on the cadres of the Bolivarian government, which he identifies as the only force capable of managing or containing the potential reaction of the Chavista base.

President Donald Trump’s preference not to force a total political transition reinforces this reading.

Speaking to the Brazil-based newspaper Opera Mundi, Caruso said: “Venezuelan politics and the economy have revolved around oil since the early 20th century, and the situation is no different today. The best scenario for the US to impose its interests is to force the Bolivarian administration into concessions. This is because only this administration has the conditions to prevent or control a potential reaction from the Chavista base. Trump’s preemptive rejection of the possibility of bringing María Corina Machado or another opposition figure to power clearly demonstrates this.”

The Donald Trump administration announced this week—without providing official details of the agreement—that the provisional administration led by Delcy Rodríguez has agreed to deliver 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the US.

Venezuelan officials have not yet issued a confirmation regarding the matter.

According to Trump, the South American country’s oil will be sold at market prices, transported by storage vessels, and unloaded at US ports. The US president also stated that he would maintain control over the funds generated by the sale.

Caruso emphasized that US aggression toward Venezuela must be read through broader strategic interests that transcend the domestic scenario and fit into global geopolitical competition.

“Beyond this very heavy attack on international law, Venezuela’s sovereignty, and the Bolivarian Revolution, this is also a clear sign of the role imperialism has assigned to us in the face of China’s rise—turning us into colonies to support US hegemony,” Caruso evaluated. “Today it is Venezuelan oil; tomorrow it will be our rare earth elements, water resources, or the Amazon.”

Last week’s US operation resulted in the deaths of more than 80 people and the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.

The Venezuelan leader and the First Lady were illegally taken to New York, where they were brought before a court on narco-terrorism charges.

The IFRJ professor pointed out that the charges presented by Washington to justify the kidnapping are “fragile.”

“There is no evidence that a structure called the Cartel of the Suns (Cartel de los Soles) actually exists,” Caruso said. “Beyond the Drug Enforcement Administration’s (DEA) ‘anonymous sources’ constantly cited in mainstream media, there is no proof that they constitute an organized group.”

The US Department of Justice has also walked back the accusation that Maduro was the leader of the Cartel of the Suns, now defining it as a “culture of corruption” composed of high-ranking Venezuelan civilian and military officials who “protect and encourage drug trafficking.”

This definition differs from the rhetoric Trump propagated months before the military assault.

According to the professor, the direct accusation against Maduro is even less credible.

Stressing that state control over oil revenues would make any relationship with illegal structures unnecessary, Caruso said: “The idea that Maduro is part of this so-called criminal organization is even less plausible. There will be no ‘trial’ for Maduro, only an extrajudicial and illegitimate conviction.”

Is there a deal between Caracas and Washington?

Caruso also commented on narratives suggesting a possible deal between Washington and the upper echelons of the Venezuelan military.

While noting that this perception has not yet been proven, the academic highlighted its political weight and the challenges of the new balance of power.

“From a pragmatic perspective, the rumor of ‘betrayal’ is already being discussed in the streets, and if the Venezuelan government makes concessions in future oil agreements, this situation will be ‘proven,’” Caruso said.

Stating that the provisional government is walking an extremely delicate line, Caruso evaluated: “This is the razor’s edge that the provisional government will now have to navigate.”

According to Caruso, national sovereignty remains a constitutive element of Venezuelan identity. “Millions of people voted for Maduro knowing that this would mean the continuation of economic sanctions imposed by the US,” the academic said, emphasizing that this stance demonstrates the determination of Venezuelans not to submit to foreign yokes.

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Musk appointed co-director of Pentagon future warfare initiative

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The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, has assumed the co-directorship of a Pentagon initiative focused on the future of warfare, known as “Project Meridian”.

Musk’s new role was announced by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth.

Musk, who has long expressed his conviction that wars will ultimately be fought with autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles, will advise the project as co-director alongside Palmer Luckey, founder of defence start-up Anduril, and former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich.

In a memorandum issued at the Pentagon, Hegseth stated that the group would “examine the battlefields of the future” and “determine which weapons and technologies warfighters must employ to achieve dominance in these environments.”

During his “State of the Force” address at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Hegseth said:

“The best predictors of future conflict do not reside exclusively within the Pentagon. Obvious biases and risks arise when we task ourselves with both framing the questions and answering them.”

Hegseth stated that this initiative would commence immediately and that, following his address, he would convene with Musk, Luckey, and Gingrich at a secure location.

Project Meridian will have 120 days to “ruthlessly map the trajectory of wars, domains, and technologies”, a process that will culminate in the public disclosure of its findings alongside a classified annex.

Hegseth outlined an expansive mandate extending “from beneath the surface of the Earth to beyond the Moon.”

Rather than formulating new military strategies or policies, the panel will seek to identify “the domains we must seize and the capabilities we must master”, focusing on the effort to “discover, develop, and field” the weapons and systems that next-generation American troops may require.

The group is expected to submit a report containing recommendations to him by the end of January.

In 2024, Musk remarked: “Future wars will be entirely about drones and hypersonic missiles.” This was merely one of several similar statements he has made in recent years.

For Musk, whose oversight role at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) ended in turmoil and escalated into a dispute with President Donald Trump over Trump’s spending bill, this appointment marks his formal return to government in an official capacity.

Musk and Trump ultimately reconciled, and Musk attended a meeting on artificial intelligence safety at the White House this week alongside other technology leaders.

Meridian forms part of a broader push announced by Hegseth to restructure the military around autonomous warfare and rapidly advancing technologies.

Hegseth announced the establishment of the Autonomous Warfare Command (AUTOWARCOM), a new four-star combatant command endowed with what he termed “service-like authorities” to scale autonomous and robotic capabilities across the joint force.

The Department of War will also begin phasing in new occupational frameworks across all military branches to establish specialised career tracks for what Hegseth described as “the next generation of autonomous warfighters.”

“We should have conceived an Autonomous Warfare Command a decade ago,” Hegseth said, explaining that Meridian aims to gaze far enough ahead to enable the military to anticipate the next technological shift rather than lag behind.

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Pentagon breach exposes personal records of three million people

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A cyberattack targeting the US Department of War’s personnel database has resulted in the leak of personal information belonging to approximately 3 million people.

Speaking to ABC News, a Pentagon official stated that the system accessed by unauthorised individuals contained the records of 2,760,000 living persons and 294,000 deceased individuals.

The Military Times portal, which first broke the news, had reported the number of affected individuals as approximately 4 million based on two sources. The Pentagon official subsequently conveyed different figures to ABC News.

The leak encompasses Social Security numbers and duty information belonging to military personnel and civilian employees. According to an official notification examined by Military Times, the compromised records may also include names, dates of birth, contact information, sex, race, and military occupational specialties.

The unauthorised access to the information system of the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) lasted for approximately nine months, between October 2025 and 16 July 2026.

ABC News reported that the access in question was obtained by a small number of third-party users. The vulnerability was closed after it was identified.

The DMDC is considered one of the Pentagon’s primary personnel records centres. More than 60 million records belonging to active-duty personnel, reservists, civilian staff, contractors, retirees, veterans, and military family members are stored at the centre.

The Pentagon has not detected any evidence that the leaked data has been misused. Military Times reported that affected individuals were offered identity restoration and credit history monitoring services.

A similar data breach previously occurred on the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) recruitment website, FBIJobs.gov. According to information obtained by ABC News from internal communications and sources, the FBI is considering the possibility that data belonging to its entire staff may have been stolen.

The New York Times (NYT) examined a portion of the stolen FBI records. Home addresses, telephone numbers, official email addresses, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, hiring dates, and emergency contact details for relatives were identified within these documents.

The database also contained unit designations, duty roles, and information regarding the supervisors of personnel. Some records revealed assignments within counterintelligence and counternarcotics units, as well as departments examining threats originating from Russia, China, and Iran.

Ciaran Martin, the former head of the UK National Cyber Security Centre, noted that this type of breach could directly affect the FBI’s operational capabilities.

The hacker group known as ShinyHunters had announced that it had seized medical data and security clearance records alongside files belonging to tens of thousands of active and former FBI employees.

Experts evaluating the matter for the NYT warned that this information could be used to track agents, threaten their families, or compile dossiers by foreign intelligence services.

The ShinyHunters group initially threatened to release the data unless the bureau withdrew an advisory it had published concerning the group’s attack methods.

The group later asserted that it had never intended to leak the information and characterised its action as an advertising campaign.

In a report published in May, Reuters noted that the personal data of US military personnel had been used in surveillance and attack preparations.

According to the agency, Washington’s adversaries gained the ability to pinpoint areas where troops were concentrated by exploiting commercially available location data. US lawmakers at the time criticised the Pentagon for failing to adequately protect the personal data of military personnel.

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Canada diversifies oil and gas exports away from US

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US President Donald Trump’s trade policy and the Washington administration’s push to increase Venezuelan oil imports are prompting Canada to diversify its energy exports.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, recent developments are accelerating Canada’s development of new oil and natural gas projects.

Steps taken by the Ottawa administration, which aspires to become an energy superpower, are seen as potentially strengthening the country’s position in global markets.

In Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer and fifth-largest natural gas producer, the energy sector accounts for approximately one-fifth of total exports.

Almost all of the country’s natural gas exports and approximately 90% of its oil exports go to the US.

The newspaper writes that the trade war with Washington and the atmosphere of confrontation entered into with Iran have heightened Canada’s desire to turn to alternative markets outside the US.

Officials plan to increase shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to European and Asian markets.

Accelerating infrastructure investments in line with this target, Canada is also shortening approval processes. The government is prioritising the construction of an oil pipeline extending specifically to the west coast.

According to the newspaper’s estimate, if major pipeline projects are implemented, Canada’s daily oil transport capacity could rise to 6.8 million barrels by 2034.

Routes heading to the west coast will make up approximately 30% of this capacity.

The Canadian administration is simultaneously advancing LNG export projects. According to the report, these investments could allow approximately 55% of Canadian natural gas exports to be directed to markets outside the US by the early or mid-2030s.

While the government expands tax incentives for the oil and natural gas sector, the province of Alberta also plans to overhaul its royalty system.

However, the newspaper notes that implementing the new projects requires heavy investment, and the process depends on the final decisions taken by producers as well as the completion of regulatory approval processes.

The expansion of pipeline and LNG infrastructure could gradually reduce Canada’s dependence on the US market while raising its share in the global energy market.

The Canadian Prime Minister’s demand to reduce reliance on the US market had also come to the fore in July.

According to Carney’s statement, the province of Alberta submitted a plan for a pipeline spanning more than 1,000 kilometres to the west coast of British Columbia.

Targeted for completion by September 2027, the line will reach the Pacific coast by following an existing corridor through the mountainous terrain.

This shift in energy comes at a time of strained relations with the US. Donald Trump said that if Canada obtains associate member status in the European Union, he could halt trade with Europe in certain sectors and impose high tariffs.

As reported by the Associated Press, Trump characterised such a rapprochement as a “potentially hostile act”.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had proposed opening the path for Canada to become the EU’s first associate member. The terms of this associate membership status, which is not defined in EU treaties, are not yet clear and require the approval of member states to enter into force.

Canada, which does not seek full membership, aims for maximum rapprochement with the EU.

Following Trump’s return to the White House, relations between Washington and Ottawa deteriorated. The Trump administration, which repeatedly called on Canada to become the “51st state” of the US, introduced additional tariffs.

In July, the US began imposing 50% tariffs on certain Canadian-origin goods.

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