{"id":10125,"date":"2025-06-20T16:04:04","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T13:04:04","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2025-06-20T16:04:04","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T13:04:04","slug":"european-central-banks-cut-interest-rates-amid-trade-war-fears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/european-central-banks-cut-interest-rates-amid-trade-war-fears\/","title":{"rendered":"European central banks cut interest rates amid trade war fears"},"content":{"rendered":"

While President Donald Trump’s trade war has tied the Federal Reserve’s hands, it is pushing<\/a><\/span> central banks in Europe to support their economies by lowering interest rates.<\/p>\n

Following moves last month by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), the central banks of Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway cut their official interest rates this week.<\/p>\n

All five central banks have lowered their growth forecasts in recent weeks. The common theme is that uncertainty about the future of trade, following Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2, has damaged confidence and suppressed economic activity.<\/p>\n

In contrast, the Fed is not considering an interest rate cut this year, even though the same factors are negatively affecting the US economy. The reason is that the scope and scale of Trump’s tariffs are almost certain to raise inflation in the US.<\/p>\n

“Everyone I know is forecasting a significant bump in inflation in the coming months because of the tariffs, because someone has to pay for them,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday after the US central bank left its federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%.<\/p>\n

At the meeting, Fed policymakers revised their inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upward, signaling that interest rates will need to remain higher for slightly longer as a result.<\/p>\n

“Our job is to keep long-term inflation expectations stable and prevent a one-time increase in the price level from turning into a persistent inflation problem,” Powell said.<\/p>\n

In this context, Powell emphasized that the US economy is still growing at a reasonable pace, while unemployment, at just 4.2% of the labor force, is low enough for the Fed to wait a little longer before acting.<\/p>\n

The Fed’s cautious stance has angered Trump, who has called Powell a “fool” and said this week that he “might have to force things” if a move is not made soon.<\/p>\n

“Obviously, we have a fool at the Fed,” he told reporters in front of the White House before the Fed’s decisions on Wednesday. “There is no inflation. There is only success. I want interest rates to come down.”<\/p>\n

On the other side of the Atlantic, the situation is very different. The initial impact of the tariffs was felt in Europe’s export sector. Companies that rushed to ship their products to the US before the tariffs took effect now face a long wait for new orders.<\/p>\n

While central banks are still concerned that the trade war could disrupt global supply chains and introduce additional costs that would increase inflation at some stage, that concern has been set aside for now.<\/p>\n

“The economic recovery that began last year has lost momentum,” Sweden’s Riksbank said on Wednesday, cutting its interest rate by a quarter point to 2%.<\/p>\n

“After a strong first quarter, growth will slow again and remain quite weak for the rest of the year,” the Swiss National Bank said on Thursday morning, lowering its interest rate from 0.25% to zero.<\/p>\n

In Norway, where the central bank had resisted cutting rates despite the post-pandemic inflation surge, it announced that the time had finally come to change its stance. Norges Bank also indicated it would cut rates again later in the year.<\/p>\n

The BoE left its bank rate unchanged on Thursday, but it had cut rates in May, and Governor Andrew Bailey stated, “Interest rates are continuing on a gradual downward trend.”<\/p>\n

The ECB also made its eighth interest rate cut of the past year at the beginning of June, and analysts predict that both central banks will continue to cut rates in the coming months.<\/p>\n

As growth slows, inflation is also falling below the level desired by central banks, at least in the short term. The ECB forecasts that inflation will be 1.6% next year before returning to its 2.0% target in 2027.<\/p>\n

In Switzerland, inflation turned negative on a year-over-year basis in May, at -0.1%.<\/p>\n

The reason for this is largely the shaken confidence in the dollar due to Trump’s policies. The dollar has lost about 9% of its value this year against major Western currencies such as the euro, sterling, and the Swiss franc.<\/p>\n

This has caused the prices of many of Europe’s imports, particularly commodities priced in dollars like oil and coffee, to become significantly cheaper in local currency terms.<\/p>\n

“Because of the erratic and chaotic new policy style in the US, we have seen European currencies strengthen,” said ING economist Carsten Brzeski, describing them as “a significant driver of deflationary pressures in Europe.”<\/p>\n

Indeed, Switzerland’s interest rate cut on Thursday was directly aimed at reducing the appeal of the franc, which global investors see as a “safe haven.”<\/p>\n

“We will not take the decision for negative interest rates lightly,” SNB President Martin Schlegel said at a press conference, while acknowledging that he might have to lower the main interest rate below zero again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While President Donald Trump’s trade war has tied the Federal Reserve’s hands, it is pushing central banks in Europe to support their economies by lowering interest rates. Following moves last month by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), the central banks of Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway cut their official interest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10127,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[2397,10868,10867,319,1856,2052,10861,9382,829,917,10862,4338,4050,10866,10865,10864,2360,787,1131,10863],"class_list":["post-10125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","tag-bank-of-england","tag-currency-exchange-rates","tag-deflationary-pressures","tag-donald-trump","tag-ecb","tag-economic-growth","tag-european-central-banks","tag-european-economy","tag-global-economy","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rate-cuts","tag-jerome-powell","tag-monetary-policy","tag-norges-bank","tag-riksbank","tag-swiss-national-bank","tag-tariffs","tag-trade-war","tag-us-economy","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"yoast_head":"\nEuropean central banks cut interest rates amid trade war fears - 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