{"id":10802,"date":"2025-08-08T12:21:09","date_gmt":"2025-08-08T09:21:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/?p=10802"},"modified":"2025-08-08T21:59:47","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T18:59:47","slug":"is-russia-fearing-loss-of-energy-markets-bowing-to-trumps-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/is-russia-fearing-loss-of-energy-markets-bowing-to-trumps-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Russia fearing loss of energy markets, bowing to Trump\u2019s pressure?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nikola Mikovic, Journalist-writer<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Kremlin seems to have taken U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s threat to impose \u201csecondary tariffs\u201d on Russia\u2019s trade partners, like China and India, seriously. Unlike Beijing and New Delhi, which have indirectly stated they plan to continue doing business with Moscow despite Trump\u2019s ultimatum for Russia to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine, Moscow appears to fear the potential consequences of U.S. tariffs on countries still purchasing Russian oil.<\/span><\/p>\n

In July, Trump initially announced a 50-day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to end the war. In early August, however, he shortened it to \u201c10 or 12\u201d days, later clarifying August 8 as the deadline.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf Russia does not come to the table, we will move forward with penalties against its top energy buyers,\u201d the U.S. leader <\/span>said<\/span><\/a><\/span> in an interview with Bloomberg, directly naming China, India, and Brazil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Although Trump has a history of issuing <\/span>empty threats<\/span><\/a><\/span> \u2013 something he has in common with Russian President <\/span>Vladimir Putin<\/span><\/a><\/span> \u2013 this time he showed he is not joking. While his Steve Witkoff was on the way to Moscow to meet with Putin, Trump imposed <\/span>50% tariffs on India<\/span><\/a><\/span> \u2013 a move that seems to have worried the Kremlin more than the Indian leadership.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

India\u2019s Ministry of External Affairs <\/span>accused<\/span><\/a><\/span> the United States and the European Union of applying double standards, pointing out that while Washington and Brussels criticize New Delhi for importing Russian oil, they themselves continue trading with Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Following Trump\u2019s decision to target India\u2019s oil imports from Russia, New Delhi has once again <\/span>described<\/span><\/a><\/span> his moves as \u201cunjustified and unreasonable,\u201d emphasizing that it will \u201ctake all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security.\u201d Indeed, on the same day \u2013 August 6 \u2013 India and Russia reaffirmed their strategic partnership and <\/span>signed<\/span><\/a><\/span> a key protocol to boost cooperation in sectors including aluminium, fertilizers, railways, and mining technology.<\/span><\/p>\n

Previously, India had reportedly informed Washington it was <\/span>not interested<\/span><\/a><\/span> in purchasing American-made F-35s, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi <\/span>signaled<\/span><\/a><\/span> plans to travel to China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit on August 31. Beijing, on the other hand, has indirectly <\/span>rejected<\/span><\/a><\/span> Trump\u2019s threats, claiming that it will \u201calways ensure its energy supply in ways that serve its national interests.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s policy of \u201csecondary tariffs\u201d could, therefore, lead to political rapprochement between India and China, two geopolitical rivals. Nevertheless, the Kremlin does not seem willing to take the risk of relying on their continued support, especially given that neither Beijing nor New Delhi has explicitly stated that they will continue purchasing Russian oil despite Trump\u2019s tariffs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Since energy has traditionally been the main driver of Russia’s foreign policy, the country\u2019s leadership is likely well aware of the long-term economic consequences if it becomes unable to sell its oil to India and China. The very fact that Witkoff and Putin, according to the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, <\/span>discussed<\/span><\/a><\/span> \u201cthe state of the global economy and energy markets,\u201d clearly suggests that the Russian leadership is on alert over Trump\u2019s threats. It is, therefore, no surprise that, even before Witkoff came to Moscow, the Kremlin reportedly <\/span>signaled<\/span><\/a><\/span> that the Russian military might suspend its long-range strike campaign in Ukraine as a potential concession to the United States.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Such a move would undoubtedly allow the Ukrainian military to consolidate, freely receive American and other Western shipments of weapons, and prepare for another round of fighting. In other words, if Putin makes such concessions to Trump, Russia will effectively give up on its significant trump card \u2013 drone and missile strikes \u2013 and help its opponent secure its rear positions and logistics.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, if Putin agrees to a full ceasefire in exchange for Kyiv\u2019s de facto recognition of the Russian occupation of southeastern Ukraine and Trump\u2019s \u201capproval\u201d for Moscow to continue supplying oil to India and China, the Eastern European country would gain an opportunity to slowly and quietly prepare for another inevitable war in the not-so-distant future.<\/span><\/p>\n

But such an outcome can only freeze the conflict in Ukraine \u2013 not end it. It takes two leaders \u2013 Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky \u2013 to sign a peace agreement. Putin has, however, repeatedly <\/span>refused<\/span><\/a><\/span> to meet with Zelensky, questioning his legitimacy. But even if he goes back on his word and accepts Trump\u2019s <\/span>proposal<\/span><\/a><\/span> to hold a tripartite summit with Ukrainian leader and the U.S. President, Russia and Ukraine are very unlikely to sign a peace deal anytime soon.<\/span><\/p>\n

From Kyiv\u2019s perspective, under the current conditions, any agreement that does not include Russian withdrawal from Ukraine\u2019s internationally recognized territories would be considered a defeat. Although the Kremlin has more room for political maneuvering and can portray almost any concession to Kyiv and the West as a \u201cgreat victory\u201d to the Russian public, it is unlikely to afford ending the war without achieving any of its strategic goals in Ukraine.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That is why the upcoming meeting between Putin and Trump \u2013 whether in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, or elsewhere \u2013 is unlikely to lead to lasting peace in Ukraine. It could, however, help the American leader improve his approval ratings at home by portraying himself as a \u201cpeacemaker\u201d \u2013 especially if he also manages to push the <\/span>Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders<\/span><\/a><\/span> to reach a peace deal \u2013 and temporarily set aside the Epstein files scandal.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nikola Mikovic, Journalist-writer The Kremlin seems to have taken U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s threat to impose \u201csecondary tariffs\u201d on Russia\u2019s trade partners, like China and India, seriously. Unlike Beijing and New Delhi, which have indirectly stated they plan to continue doing business with Moscow despite Trump\u2019s ultimatum for Russia to make progress toward ending the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50,"featured_media":10803,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[529,319,1092,1059,1144,683,5331,2346,822,1192,444],"class_list":["post-10802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-china","tag-donald-trump","tag-india","tag-kremlin","tag-oil","tag-russia","tag-steve-witkoff","tag-tariff","tag-ukraine","tag-united-states","tag-vladimir-putin"],"yoast_head":"\nIs Russia fearing loss of energy markets, bowing to Trump\u2019s pressure? - Harici<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Kremlin seems to have taken U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s threat to impose \u201csecondary tariffs\u201d on Russia\u2019s trade partners, like China and India, seriously.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/is-russia-fearing-loss-of-energy-markets-bowing-to-trumps-pressure\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is Russia fearing loss of energy markets, bowing to Trump\u2019s pressure? 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