It has been exactly three and a half years since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. This war may show the first glimmer of peace with a ceasefire, however, Ukraine and its European partners will be forced to drink the bitter wine of \u201cceding land for peace.\u201d This bitter wine was brewed in the old wine vat of NATO\u2019s eastward expansion, bottled during Biden\u2019s presidency, and is now handed to Ukraine and its European allies by his successor Trump, along with the increasingly exposed \u201ctoxic sausage\u201d: Ukraine cannot join NATO, at most the U.S. and Europe will provide security guarantees.<\/p>\n
Although Ukraine and its European partners are still refusing this bitter wine that pleases Russia and eases America, they do not rule out holding a Russia-Ukraine summit or a U.S.-Russia-Ukraine summit in the near future to make final bargaining\u2014even if only procedurally, formally, or psychologically\u2014to show \u201cman proposes, God disposes.\u201d<\/p>\n
On the 20th, White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that preparations were underway for a possible meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, with several candidate locations. She also revealed that whether a U.S.-Russia-Ukraine tripartite meeting would take place depends on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine summit.<\/p>\n
According to AFP, during the U.S.-Russia leaders\u2019 call on the 18th, Putin suggested that the future Russia-Ukraine summit could be held in Moscow. The holding of the Russia-Ukraine summit was announced that day after Trump met with Zelensky and seven other European leaders. However, European leaders were clearly unwilling to elevate Putin and aggrieve Zelensky, therefore they did not agree to the first Russia-Ukraine summit being held in Moscow.<\/p>\n
Switzerland, which has maintained a 200-year tradition of neutrality, leaned toward the European camp because of the Russia-Ukraine war and participated in the blockade and sanctions against Russia. Now, perhaps seeing the general trend of U.S.-Russia reconciliation and the inevitable defeat of Ukraine and Europe, it seeks to please both the U.S. and Russia and play the mediator, proactively proposing to host the Russia-Ukraine summit. Of course, Turkey and the UAE are also possible venues for witnessing the historic meeting between Putin and Zelensky.<\/p>\n
However, no matter where it is held, Ukraine and its European partners cannot rewrite the ceasefire script already drawn by Russia and approved by the U.S., namely: Ukraine must accept that the four southeastern regions and the Crimean Peninsula will henceforth \u201cbear the Russian name, not the Ukrainian name,\u201d even if not legally recognized; Ukraine must be completely shut out of NATO, cutting off its original intention and long-cherished wish to enjoy NATO\u2019s collective defense.<\/p>\n
This is the ceasefire bottom line repeatedly emphasized by Russia, the strategic goal of its military action in Ukraine, and the prerequisite the U.S. must accept to restore relations with Russia. This war result of \u201cRussia fights, America yields,\u201d \u201cRussia wins, Ukraine loses,\u201d \u201cRussia advances, Europe retreats\u201d was already settled at the U.S.-Russia Alaska summit on August 15, and confirmed again at the U.S.-Ukraine and U.S.-Europe summits in Washington on August 18.<\/p>\n
Trump even warned his European partners who came lobbying: Putin \u201cmay not want to reach an agreement.\u201d The subtext was clear: “Don\u2019t assume that being the client gives you the upper hand \u2014 and don\u2019t you dare push your luck.” Observers believe Putin is not in a hurry to reach an agreement because Russia is militarily in a strong position and has not yet fully achieved its set goal of fully annexing Donbas. Therefore, its ceasefire premise is Ukraine withdrawing troops from the Donbas-controlled areas and continuing to cede part of its sovereignty and territory. As for a more complex and long-term peace agreement, Russia expects more commitments from the U.S. and NATO.<\/p>\n
At the White House \u201cdual summit\u201d on the 18th, seven European leaders traveled long distances to collectively back Zelensky, a grand formation displaying a strong \u201cforcing the palace\u201d posture. However, in the face of the very strong Trump, they were first collectively ignored, then ridiculed and humiliated one by one, creating a tragic and despairing scene for transatlantic relations. Trump insisted on meeting Zelensky alone first, then holding large-scale talks with Zelensky and the other leaders. The key point is that his basic plan did not change: Ukraine and its European partners could only discuss whether to first ceasefire or to reach a one-time peace agreement.<\/p>\n
The dramatic scene of the White House dual summit evoked the fairy tale \u201cSnow White,\u201d as if Zelensky were the harmless Snow White, the other European leaders the seven dwarfs surrounding him, and Trump more like the old witch deceiving and harming Snow White with the poisoned apple. This real-life geopolitical fairy tale is not a tragicomedy but a thorough tragedy\u2014because at the climax there is no prince marrying the awakened Snow White, only a polar bear that will swallow 20% of Ukraine\u2019s land and continue to stare down Ukraine and Europe. And as American strategist Mearsheimer once said, this polar bear was \u201cstabbed on the left and right by NATO for thirty years, left with no retreat, and forced to pounce and bite\u201d its opponent.<\/p>\n
A ceasefire in place is the urgent demand of Ukraine and its European partners, while a peace agreement is Russia\u2019s tough demand. If there is no quick ceasefire, it means Ukraine, which has lost military advantage and been abandoned by Trump, will lose more land, more bargaining chips, and face greater defeat. If a comprehensive, package, and guaranteed peace agreement is not reached, Russia fears falling again into the strategic trap of the 2014 eastern Ukraine ceasefire\u2014as former German Chancellor Merkel and former NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg later admitted, NATO, especially its European members, used the ceasefire to train more Ukrainian troops and provide more equipment, causing Russia to lose battlefield-level advantages.<\/p>\n
To reassure Russia about signing the ceasefire agreement, the Trump administration not only closed the door to Ukraine\u2019s NATO membership but also significantly reduced its security guarantees for Ukraine. On the 20th, U.S. news outlet Politico<\/em> cited Pentagon policy officials, saying that the U.S. plans to play a minimal role in security guarantees for Ukraine, and Europe must bear the burden of maintaining lasting peace in Kyiv. It was reported that the defense ministers of the UK, France, Germany, and Finland urged the U.S. to clarify what kind of assistance it would provide in terms of troops and aerial assets to maintain the peace agreement that Ukraine and Russia might reach. This response from the Pentagon officials undoubtedly left Ukraine and its European allies greatly disappointed.<\/p>\n Perhaps to make Ukraine and its European allies completely abandon their hopes and stop expecting the U.S. to continue paying for their security, U.S. Vice President Vance publicly stated that European countries will have to assume the \u201cprimary responsibility\u201d for Ukraine\u2019s security guarantees. This young, passionate, and fiercely loyal White House number two even bragged about how he humiliated Zelensky on the 18th: \u201cIf you follow the rules, I won\u2019t say anything.\u201d In February this year, Zelensky met with Trump, who had just returned to the White House, and was reprimanded by both Vance and Trump himself for \u201cdisrespecting the U.S.,\u201d forcing him to leave the White House early. Vance bringing up this old incident and mocking Zelensky more brazenly this time undoubtedly served as an additional pressure demonstration towards Ukraine and its European partners.<\/p>\n As the saying goes, the defeated general cannot speak of bravery. Learning from the lesson of the unfriendly breakup during the U.S.-Ukraine summit four months ago, Zelensky, on this trip to the White House, obediently took off his iconic military uniform and switched to a Western suit. He also thanked Trump four times throughout the meeting, in stark contrast to the confrontational attitude during the first summit. He knew very well that the situation was stronger than any individual, and that in his dependent position, he could not expect to be on equal footing with Trump, let alone arrogantly set conditions for the main financier, especially since Ukraine\u2019s military position was already in a disadvantageous state.<\/p>\n On the 21st, Trump made his latest statement on the Russia-Ukraine war, saying, \u201cWe will know the result in about two weeks\u201d and indicated that the U.S. may adopt another strategy in two weeks. When Trump left the Alaska summit, he called out to Ukraine and its European partners, stating that whether a peace agreement is reached depends on Ukraine and its European partners\u2019 agreement, and they must agree.<\/p>\n The ball of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has shifted from a war to a peace process, is indeed now in Ukraine and its European partners\u2019 court. As the traditional team captain, the U.S. now plays the referee and is blowing the whistle while trying to accommodate Russia\u2019s demands. Even though Ukraine is unwilling a thousand times, even though the European war-hawk countries are unwilling ten thousand times, the U.S. has no intention of continuing to accompany and save the situation. Ukraine and Europe are even less capable of changing the battlefield situation. With the situation being what it is, sacrificing Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for the cessation of European warfare has become a choice with no alternatives. Ukraine and its European partners are bound to drink this bitter wine of the Russia-Ukraine war.<\/p>\n Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It has been exactly three and a half years since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. This war may show the first glimmer of peace with a ceasefire, however, Ukraine and its European partners will be forced to drink the bitter wine of \u201cceding land for peace.\u201d This bitter wine was brewed in the old […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":11154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"yoast_head":"\n