{"id":11221,"date":"2025-09-02T16:17:09","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T13:17:09","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2025-09-02T16:17:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-02T13:17:09","slug":"developing-nations-pivot-from-us-dollar-debt-amid-high-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/developing-nations-pivot-from-us-dollar-debt-amid-high-interest-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Developing nations pivot from US dollar debt amid high interest rates"},"content":{"rendered":"

Emerging nations are shifting away from US dollar debt, turning to currencies with very low interest rates, such as the renminbi and the Swiss franc.<\/p>\n

This shift, initiated by debtor nations such as Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Panama, reflects a reaction to the high interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). These rates, in addition to angering President Donald Trump, have also increased the debt servicing costs for other countries.<\/p>\n

Armando Armenta, vice president of global economic research at AllianceBernstein, told<\/a><\/span> the Financial Times<\/em> (FT), \u201cHigh interest rates and a steep US Treasury yield curve… have made US dollar financing more burdensome for developing countries, despite the relatively low margins on emerging market debt. Consequently, these countries are seeking more cost-effective options.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, Armenta described the move to cheaper, non-dollar financing as “temporary measures” taken by countries that “must focus on reducing their financing needs.”<\/p>\n

The switch to renminbi-denominated borrowing, with the Chinese currency reaching its highest level against the dollar this year, can also be seen as a consequence of Beijing’s $1.3 trillion Belt and Road development program.<\/p>\n

Under this program, hundreds of billions of dollars in loans have been extended to foreign governments for infrastructure projects. Although the total figures for new renminbi loans are not widely known because Beijing negotiates them bilaterally with other governments, Kenya and Sri Lanka are seeking to convert high-profile dollar loans into this currency.<\/p>\n

Kenya’s treasury announced in August that it was in talks with China ExIm Bank, the country’s largest creditor, to convert the repayment of dollar loans for a $5 billion railway project, which is straining its budget, into renminbi.<\/p>\n

The president of Sri Lanka also told parliament last month that his government is seeking loans in renminbi to complete a major highway project that was halted when the country defaulted in 2022.<\/p>\n

With the US federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%\u2014much higher than equivalent rates set by other major central banks\u2014the total cost of new dollar-denominated borrowing is relatively high for many developing countries.<\/p>\n

The Swiss National Bank lowered its interest rates to zero in June, while China’s benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate is 1.4%.<\/p>\n

“The cost of financing appears to be the reason for the conversion to renminbi,” said Thilina Panduwawala, an economist at Colombo-based Frontier Research.<\/p>\n

In the 2010s, many “Belt and Road” loans were issued in US dollars at a time when US interest rates were much lower. Since then, the cost of such debt for Kenya and Sri Lanka has increased significantly, accelerating the trend away from dollar financing.<\/p>\n

By borrowing in currencies like the renminbi and the Swiss franc, countries can secure loans at much lower interest rates than those offered by dollar bonds.<\/p>\n

However, Yufan Huang from the Johns Hopkins University China-Africa Research Initiative argued that Beijing’s broader efforts to promote lending in its currency have made limited progress.<\/p>\n

“Although renminbi interest rates are lower, many borrowers are still hesitant. For now, it seems to be more of a case-by-case practice, as in the example of Kenya,” Huang said.<\/p>\n

Since governments rarely earn export revenue in currencies like the renminbi and the Swiss franc, they may also need to hedge their exposure to foreign exchange rates through derivatives.<\/p>\n

As the Panamanian government struggles to control its fiscal deficit and prevent its credit rating from falling to junk status, it took out nearly $2.4 billion in Swiss franc loans from banks in July alone.<\/p>\n

Panama’s Finance Minister, Felipe Chapman, said that accessing cheaper financing saved over $200 million compared to issuing dollar-denominated debt and that the new loans were hedged.<\/p>\n

The minister added that the country is “diversifying” its public debt management into both the euro and the Swiss franc, “instead of relying solely on American dollar capital markets.”<\/p>\n

Colombia also appears to be turning to Swiss franc loans to refinance its dollar bonds. Last week, a group of global banks launched an offer to buy discounted Colombian bonds, which investors see as part of arranging a Swiss franc loan to the government that would use the existing debt as collateral.<\/p>\n

Although Bogot\u00e1 has not yet approved such a loan, the country’s finance ministry announced plans in June to diversify its foreign currency borrowing.<\/p>\n

Andres Pardo, head of Latin America macro strategy at XP Investments, said that by borrowing at low Swiss interest rates of around 1.5%, Colombia could buy back dollar debt yielding 7% to 8% and local peso bonds yielding up to 12%.<\/p>\n

The country’s local currency debt was downgraded to junk status by S&P that month after the government suspended a key fiscal rule.<\/p>\n

Investors noted that while government borrowing in Swiss francs could help limit interest expenses, in the long run, such borrowing cannot replace access to the larger public market for dollar-denominated bonds.<\/p>\n

“These help with fundamentals if you want to fix your maturity profile… but we need to see policymakers make improvements to reopen the [dollar] markets to them,” said one emerging market debt fund manager.<\/p>\n

According to JPMorgan, companies in emerging markets are also selling more euro-denominated bonds this year, with the amount of this debt reaching a record $239 billion as of July.<\/p>\n

The total value of dollar-denominated corporate bonds in emerging markets is approximately $2.5 trillion.<\/p>\n

“This year’s euro-denominated issuances are growing more than dollar-denominated ones,” said Toke Hjortsh\u00f8j, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management.<\/p>\n

The manager added that issuers in Asia account for one-third of euro-denominated issuances, up from 10% to 15% fifteen years ago.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Emerging nations are shifting away from US dollar debt, turning to currencies with very low interest rates, such as the renminbi and the Swiss franc. This shift, initiated by debtor nations such as Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Panama, reflects a reaction to the high interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). These rates, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11222,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[175],"tags":[12739,1331,529,2047,12734,10067,12732,12741,9584,189,12736,4051,12740,2221,12737,2822,419,5100,12738,12735,12733,10863],"class_list":["post-11221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-diplomacy","tag-alliancebernstein","tag-belt-and-road-initiative","tag-china","tag-colombia","tag-currency-diversification","tag-de-dollarization","tag-developing-countries","tag-emerging-market-bonds","tag-emerging-markets","tag-fed","tag-financing-costs","tag-interest-rates","tag-johns-hopkins-university","tag-jpmorgan","tag-kenya","tag-panama","tag-renminbi","tag-sovereign-debt","tag-sri-lanka","tag-swiss-franc","tag-us-dollar-debt","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"yoast_head":"\nDeveloping nations pivot from US dollar debt amid high interest rates - 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