October 11th marked a historic day in Japanese politics.<\/p>\n
In a press conference, Komeito’s current leader, Saito Tetsuo, announced that his party would no longer be part of the ruling coalition, ending its stable and loyal 26-year partnership with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Saito also declared that Komeito would henceforth terminate its electoral cooperation with the LDP. This signifies a major shift in Japan’s political landscape, given the interconnectedness of Komeito and the LDP. However, he emphasized that cooperation on an issue-by-issue basis in parliament would still be possible and that his party did not aim to become an outright opponent of the LDP. In short, the LDP-Komeito coalition, which governed Japan from 1999-2009 and again from 2012, has officially come to an end.<\/p>\n
This coalition was arguably the structure that has shaped Japanese politics for the last thirty years.<\/p>\n
After the LDP lost power in the early 1990s, turning to Komeito to ensure stability in a challenging political environment was a natural move. Since then, it evolved into a political fortress as a stable and enduring alliance. In essence, those familiar with Japanese politics could conclude that the LDP and Komeito were governing the country together. They secured a majority in the Diet [the Japanese parliament]. This was also how things worked during the Shinzo Abe era in the 2010s. Despite being a conservative, Shinzo Abe maintained the coalition through his personal relationships and carefully crafted policy compromises that always required Komeito’s approval, or at least its acquiescence. Komeito, in turn, set its own conditions, and the LDP-Komeito partnership thrived. It was an almost flawless political machine.<\/p>\n
For the last thirty years, the LDP and Komeito have consistently held over 60% of the seats in the House of Representatives, the more powerful of the two houses of the Japanese Diet. However, this dominance does not reflect their actual strength in terms of votes; Japan’s electoral system, with its LDP-dominated single-member districts, rewards such coalitions.<\/p>\n
How did the coalition work?<\/strong><\/p>\n The coalition essentially operated as a two-way system: First, the LDP’s strength traditionally lay in Japan’s single-member districts. Komeito was active on the ground, supporting LDP candidates through Buddhist organizations like Soka Gakkai, delivering an estimated 20,000 votes per district.<\/p>\n Second, Komeito focused on a limited number of single-member districts where an LDP candidate did not run, traditionally in urban areas like Tokyo or the Kansai region (mostly Osaka and Hyogo). The party concentrated its full power on the proportional representation vote, where its true base lies. It was a mechanism that worked on the ground for the LDP.<\/p>\n However, it is a known fact in Japanese politics that there has always been a degree of skepticism towards Komeito within LDP conservative circles. This stems partly from the party’s links to the Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, and partly from criticism of Komeito’s socially moderate stances on issues like same-sex marriage, the policy on separate surnames [for married couples], or defense spending. Furthermore, Komeito’s traditionally close relationship with China also fuels this skepticism.<\/p>\n All of this has now come to the surface and finally fractured.<\/p>\n In the nineties and 2000s, these policy differences were not very significant, or at least they were set aside by the LDP and its leaders, who saw Komeito as a reliable partner with whom they could govern Japan. Together, they governed by consensus. They were successful. But last week, the coalition reached its breaking point.<\/p>\n It appears there were two fundamental points of disagreement that led the party to part ways with the LDP:<\/p>\n The first major reason is that Sanae Takaichi’s right-wing policy stances, and perhaps more importantly, her style and tone, were not well-received by Komeito. Komeito worked with Abe, and they had many disagreements, but it’s important to remember the significant nuances between Abe and Takaichi. Abe learned his lessons after his failed first term in 2007 and, in his second term, pivoted to economic policies, reassuring Komeito that the government would not shift too far to the right.<\/p>\n The second point of contention is the “seiji to kane” (politics and money) scandals that have plagued the LDP in recent years. Komeito may have felt it could no longer justify remaining in a coalition with a party that it believed was not taking real steps toward reform and was continuing the same political behavior that Japanese voters have punished in every election for the past five years.<\/p>\n And then there is the role of personal ties. The Japanese press reports that Sanae Takaichi has almost no relationship with Komeito and has formed a leadership team within the LDP dominated by conservatives who feel little affinity for Komeito. One of them is former Prime Minister Aso Taro, who has become the “cloistered emperor” [a term referencing a powerful figure ruling from behind the scenes] guiding Takaichi through the treacherous waters of Japanese politics.<\/p>\n So, what is expected to happen next?<\/strong><\/p>\n The Japanese Diet must vote for a new prime minister in the coming days. The initial date was already postponed, as Sanae Takaichi may not currently have enough votes to secure the position.<\/p>\n But today, the Japanese government decided to convene an extraordinary session of the Diet on October 21st. Parliamentary sources said the session is expected to hold a vote to elect the next prime minister.<\/p>\n To become prime minister, a candidate needs to win a majority in both houses of the Diet. The problem is that the LDP does not have an absolute majority on its own, not even in the first round\u2014and that was with Komeito. Now that the coalition has dissolved, this gap has widened even further, threatening to lead the LDP to failure.<\/p>\n If no candidate secures a majority, the vote goes to a second round between the two leading candidates, and this time the LDP will enter the run-off alone.<\/p>\n The LDP remains the largest party in the House of Representatives, and Sanae Takaichi could become Japan’s first female prime minister! We shall see.<\/p>\n However, the opposition is still in disarray. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), Japan’s largest opposition party, is trying to persuade two right-leaning opposition parties, the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Ishin no Kai, to agree on a common candidate. On the other hand, the CDPJ is also trying to coordinate with smaller left-wing parties like the Communists, Social Democrats, and Reiwa.<\/p>\n What will Komeito do?<\/strong><\/p>\n Leader Saito Tetsuo stated that the party would vote for him (their own leader) in the first round but did not disclose what they would do in a potential second round, leaving the balance of power in the Diet completely uncertain.<\/p>\n Komeito’s closing message was as follows:<\/p>\n “To revive politics for the people and to restore public trust, Komeito will take the lead and move forward. We express our gratitude for our past partnership with the LDP, and we part with a handshake.”<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" October 11th marked a historic day in Japanese politics. In a press conference, Komeito’s current leader, Saito Tetsuo, announced that his party would no longer be part of the ruling coalition, ending its stable and loyal 26-year partnership with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Saito also declared that Komeito would henceforth terminate its electoral cooperation […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":11799,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[529,3281,13673,503,870,3172,9126,13672,8567,13674,871,1192],"class_list":["post-11798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia","tag-china","tag-coalition","tag-dpfp","tag-headline","tag-japan","tag-komeito","tag-ldp","tag-saito-tetsuo","tag-shinzo-abe","tag-soka-gakkai","tag-tokyo","tag-united-states"],"yoast_head":"\n