{"id":12582,"date":"2025-12-13T13:27:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-13T10:27:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/?p=12582"},"modified":"2025-12-18T12:45:20","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T09:45:20","slug":"trumps-peace-plan-will-accelerate-europes-central-and-eastern-europeanization","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/trumps-peace-plan-will-accelerate-europes-central-and-eastern-europeanization\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s ‘Peace Plan’ Will Accelerate Europe\u2019s ‘Central and Eastern Europeanization’"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump’s \u201c28-point peace plan\u201d to resolve the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict reflects the underlying political logic of American power politics\u2014the \u201cdining table menu\u201d theory: \u201cIf you\u2019re not at the table, you\u2019re on the menu.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Liu Xiaodan<\/strong>, Associate Researcher, Institute for Central and Eastern European Economic and Trade Cooperation, Ningbo University<\/em>
Ma Xiaolin<\/strong>, Specially Appointed Researcher, Institute for Central and Eastern European Economic and Trade Cooperation, Ningbo University; Bao Yugang Chair Professor; Professor at Zhejiang International Studies University; Director of the Institute for Mediterranean Studies<\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. President Trump has unilaterally introduced a \u201c28-point peace plan<\/a><\/span>\u201d to resolve the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict, thoroughly exposing the EU\u2019s power \u201cbottom cards\u201d and directly striking at the EU\u2019s interest \u201cred lines.\u201d This peace roadmap presents solutions in a segmented manner across nine aspects, including Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty, security architecture, arms restrictions and relations with NATO, postwar reconstruction of Ukraine, U.S.\u2013Russia cooperation, territorial division of Ukraine, and humanitarian guarantees. It once again reflects the underlying political logic of American power politics\u2014the \u201cdining table menu\u201d theory: \u201cIf you\u2019re not at the table, you\u2019re on the menu.\u201d<\/p>\n

Obviously, this time Ukraine and the EU have been placed on the menu, while the two major powers, the United States and Russia, sit at the table holding knives and forks. Europe rushed to respond. On November 23, advisors from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other countries held talks with senior Ukrainian officials ahead of the U.S.\u2013Ukraine Geneva meeting; through U.S.\u2013Ukraine negotiations, the \u201c28 points\u201d were compressed into \u201c19 points,\u201d shelving issues of territorial division and parts concerning Ukraine\u2019s relations with NATO and the EU. After this hurried round, the EU was only able to fend off blows, with no capacity to counterattack.<\/p>\n

What is noteworthy is that the Central and Eastern European countries on the front line of the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict instead appear relatively calm, divided into two camps\u2014\u201cpro-war\u201d and \u201cpro-peace\u201d\u2014each adhering to positions aligned with their national interests. In a short period of time, bilateral or multilateral meetings among the United States, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine have continued around the \u201c28-point\u201d or its revised peace plan, with Central and Eastern European countries also interspersed among them, attempting to influence the course of events.<\/p>\n

On November 28, Hungarian President Viktor Orb\u00e1n visited Russia to hold talks on the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict and energy issues, and expressed hope that U.S. and Russian leaders could meet in Budapest<\/a><\/span> to resolve the conflict peacefully; Orb\u00e1n stated that \u201cthe Moscow talks were very successful.\u201d On December 2, German Chancellor Merz met Polish Prime Minister Tusk in Berlin, stating that he \u201chopes Poland will become an important partner in building a secure, free, and prosperous Europe.\u201d On the same day, Russian President Putin once again emphasized opposition to bargaining, stating that all modifications proposed by Europe to Trump\u2019s peace plan aim to completely block the entire peace process.<\/p>\n

From this, it can be seen that although the process of shifting the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict \u201cfrom war to peace\u201d appears to have entered a \u201cfast lane,\u201d it is in fact still in a \u201cclimbing stage.\u201d The Central and Eastern European region, increasingly becoming a focal point of great-power competition, is seeing its geopolitical influence continuously strengthened, seemingly assuming the role of a main force shaping Europe\u2019s situation and accelerating the trend of Europe\u2019s \u201cCentral and Eastern Europeanization.\u201d<\/p>\n

The core characteristics of Europe\u2019s \u201cCentral and Eastern Europeanization\u201d are reflected in the accelerated advancement of \u201cde-Russification\u201d: in economic, energy, and security fields, achieving partial or full \u201cdecoupling\u201d from Russia; at the security level, relying on the United States and the NATO framework to bind external security guarantees; and in development pathways, elevating the priority of security interests while relatively weakening investment in resources related to people\u2019s livelihoods. The roar of artillery fire in the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict interweaves with the quarrels of U.S.\u2013Ukraine peace negotiations, causing the situation in Central and Eastern Europe to exhibit high sensitivity, sharp confrontation, and complex dynamics, which may spread and deepen across the European continent.<\/p>\n

Sensitivity: Absolutization of Security Issues and Politicization of Non-Political Issues<\/strong><\/p>\n

The sensitivity of the situation is manifested, on the one hand, in the absolutization of security issues, with the core focus on military defensive security. The first ten points of the \u201c28-point peace plan\u201d clearly outline Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty and security architecture with attached guarantee conditions. In response, prior to the U.S.\u2013Ukraine Geneva meeting on November 23, several European countries communicated privately with Ukraine, expecting the United States to provide collective defense security guarantees similar to those stipulated in NATO Charter Article 5, demanding that the United States offer comprehensive security assurances and place Ukraine\u2019s security under NATO\u2019s collective defense umbrella.<\/p>\n

At present, Europe\u2019s defense and security still follow the U.S.-led NATO unquestioningly, while the realization of strategic autonomy is inseparable from solid defense capabilities as support. To accelerate the process of European defense integration, in October 2025 the European Union officially launched the \u201cDefense Readiness Roadmap 2030,\u201d aiming to promote Europe\u2019s transformation from a \u201cpayer\u201d to an \u201cactor\u201d in the defense field, achieve precise alignment between defense fiscal expenditure and diplomatic discourse power, and ultimately ensure that Europe \u201cmust be at the table\u201d in negotiations involving European security.<\/p>\n

Another layer of sensitivity is reflected in the politicization of non-political issues, focusing on energy. Against the specific backdrop of the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict, Europe\u2019s \u201cCentral and Eastern Europeanization\u201d process has driven external cooperation toward a mindset of \u201cemphasizing security over economics,\u201d with livelihood politics yielding to geopolitics. A landmark event was that, under criticism and pressure from Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries, in February 2022 then German Chancellor Scholz announced the suspension of certification for the \u201cNord Stream 2\u201d project. In October 2025, the EU approved its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, for the first time targeting Russia\u2019s liquefied natural gas industry, marking a further deepening of the EU\u2013Russia energy decoupling process. In this process, energy has been stripped of its basic economic attributes and reduced to a tool of geopolitical competition. In sharp contrast, Hungary has consistently adhered to independently importing Russian energy based on its own economic and livelihood needs; this \u201cgoing its own way\u201d approach has led some forces to view it as a \u201cTrojan horse\u201d within the anti-Russia system.<\/p>\n

Confrontation: Polarization of Differences and Contradiction of Positions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Regarding the territorial clauses involved in the \u201c28-point peace plan,\u201d the majority of Central and Eastern European countries quickly expressed strong opposition. Polish Prime Minister Tusk emphasized that \u201cany agreement must not weaken or undermine the security of Poland and Europe, and peace cannot be achieved at the cost of weakening Ukraine\u2019s military capabilities.\u201d Croatian Prime Minister Plenkovi\u0107 declared that the plan infringes upon Ukraine\u2019s territorial integrity. European Commission President von der Leyen also stressed that countries cannot be changed by force and that Ukraine must have the right to choose its own destiny.<\/p>\n

As the EU expanded to include Central and Eastern European countries, major states such as the V4 Group (the Visegr\u00e1d Group, including Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia) and the three Baltic states have vigorously promoted incorporating Soviet \u201cdictatorial rule\u201d into Europe\u2019s collective memory, gradually shaping the entire EU into an identity-based political actor characterized by \u201canti-Russia\u201d and \u201cde-Russification.\u201d It is not difficult to see that clauses exchanging territory for peace have completely activated the historical memories of hostility and aversion toward Russia among most Central and Eastern European countries, and this shared identity has further reinforced strong resistance at the EU level.<\/p>\n

In contrast, the \u201cpro-peace camp,\u201d represented by Hungary, has remained relatively restrained. From the very beginning of the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n has strongly opposed the EU\u2019s stance of \u201csupporting Ukraine against Russia\u201d and has been committed to promoting a Budapest meeting between the United States and Russia to facilitate peace talks. On November 28, Orb\u00e1n visited Moscow and stated his willingness to provide a platform for negotiations to resolve the Ukraine issue. This move triggered strong dissatisfaction from Poland, which subsequently canceled a previously scheduled bilateral summit with Hungary, retaining only the relevant agenda of the Visegr\u00e1d Group summit on December 3.<\/p>\n

However, with high inflation, sharply increasing pressure on people\u2019s livelihoods, and energy and security policies hollowing out national development potential, populist forces have taken the opportunity to make a comeback, and governments in many Central and Eastern European countries face the risk of restructuring. In October 2023, Fico once again assumed the post of Slovak prime minister, a result driven precisely by public dissatisfaction with intensifying inflation; similarly, in December 2025, Babi\u0161, leader of the Czech populist far-right party \u201cANO (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens),\u201d will once again serve as prime minister. Proceeding from the core interests of safeguarding national economic and livelihood concerns, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic are highly likely to form a \u201cpro-Russia, distant-from-Ukraine\u201d triangle.<\/p>\n

Dynamics: \u201cNew Europe\u201d Leading \u201cOld Europe\u201d and the Fatigue of Supporting Ukraine<\/strong><\/p>\n

Except for the Balkan region, Central and Eastern European countries have all joined the European Union. They have been labeled by U.S. politicians as \u201cNew Europe,\u201d aimed at counterbalancing the \u201cOld Europe\u201d represented by Western Europe, with the intention of dividing and weakening the European continent\u2019s drive toward unity. In the early stages of EU accession, these European \u201cnewcomer\u201d countries were mostly in a position of passively accepting rules and undergoing one-way transformation; their core demands consistently focused on obtaining more economic development resources and tangible opportunities to improve people\u2019s livelihoods. The outbreak of the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict has completely reshaped Europe\u2019s political leadership landscape: propelled by the United States, Central and Eastern European countries leaped to the forefront as \u201cvanguards\u201d of anti-Russia, pro-Ukraine support, with their geopolitical influence surging sharply and even reversely shaping the EU\u2019s positions and decision-making toward Ukraine and Russia. In the early phase of the conflict, Poland, the three Baltic states, and others were particularly active, strongly calling for military assistance to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, ultimately pushing these propositions to become unified EU actions.<\/p>\n

However, as the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict became protracted, anxiety and fear among Central and Eastern European publics continued to rise, directly fueling the resurgence of populist far-right parties. In some countries, coalition governments and government reshuffles emerged, leading to fundamental adjustments in foreign policy directions. For example, Hungary and Slovakia have clearly exhibited diversified tendencies of being \u201cpro-Russia, pro-U.S., and skeptical of Europe.\u201d The concept of \u201cnation first\u201d has spread rapidly across the European continent, and governments in Germany, Poland, and other countries have gradually revealed pressure and dissatisfaction regarding the reception of Ukrainian refugees, calling on the EU to increase subsidies for migrant resettlement. At the same time, the emergence of \u201cfatigue with supporting Ukraine and opposing Russia\u201d has disrupted the EU\u2019s previously unified rhythm of \u201canti-Russia, pro-Ukraine,\u201d with calls and possibilities for resolving the conflict through peace negotiations correspondingly rising. On November 7, during Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s special visit to the United States, Trump stated, \u201cWe will end this war in the not-too-distant future,\u201d to which Orb\u00e1n responded, \u201cMiracles are always possible,\u201d calling on European politicians to stop actions that undermine progress toward Russia\u2013Ukraine peace.<\/p>\n

Trump attempts to resolve the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict in the name of peace, but the \u201c28-point peace plan\u201d has made the EU clearly recognize that the United States\u2019 approach to seizing Ukrainian resources has become increasingly unsightly, with the principle of \u201cAmerica First\u201d fully on display. Because Russia strongly opposes the \u201c19-point peace plan\u201d and insists on using the \u201c28-point peace plan\u201d as the basis for negotiations, Europe\u2019s security nerves have once again been tightened, accelerating Europe\u2019s \u201cCentral and Eastern Europeanization\u201d and solidifying the will to \u201coppose Russia and support Ukraine.\u201d On December 3, European Commission President von der Leyen proposed a new version of a \u201cusing Russian assets to aid Ukraine\u201d loan scheme, seeking to resolve Ukraine\u2019s loan funding sources by confiscating frozen European assets of the Russian central bank, and to submit it for review at the EU summit on the 18th. In essence, the issue of Ukraine\u2019s security guarantees fundamentally reflects deep-seated security anxiety across the entire Central and Eastern European region, pulling at Europe\u2019s choices of stance within the conflict.<\/p>\n

Due to significant divergences between U.S. and European positions, Russia\u2013Ukraine peace negotiations have repeatedly fallen into deadlock, and the trend of Europe\u2019s \u201cCentral and Eastern Europeanization\u201d may persist over the long term, potentially accelerating the integration of European defense amid crises. Although EU member states still exhibit pronounced differences and divisions across political, economic, and social fields, in response to pressing external security pressures, all countries have incentives to accelerate steps toward strategic autonomy and increase investment in hard defense capabilities. At the same time, relying on the unique advantages of the unified single market, the EU continues to harden its \u201csoft power,\u201d and in increasingly intense international competition, most member states are coordinating their efforts with a more united and assertive posture.<\/p>\n

The \u201c28-point peace plan\u201d is akin to a precisely calibrated litmus test, impacting the strategic \u201cbottom lines\u201d that Central and Eastern European countries and the EU can tolerate. Amid repeated games and tug-of-war among multiple parties, the United States, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine have no longer concealed their respective interest pursuits and sovereignty red lines. A long-term power struggle among the United States, Russia, and Europe has already been set, making it inevitable that the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict, as a surface manifestation, will evolve toward greater protraction and complexity. In this process, Central and Eastern European countries located in the \u201cmiddle zone\u201d will continue to see their discourse power in the field of security and defense rise, thereby playing an increasingly pivotal role within the EU\u2019s collective decision-making mechanism.<\/p>\n

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump’s \u201c28-point peace plan\u201d to resolve the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict reflects the underlying political logic of American power politics\u2014the \u201cdining table menu\u201d theory: \u201cIf you\u2019re not at the table, you\u2019re on the menu.\u201d Liu Xiaodan, Associate Researcher, Institute for Central and Eastern European Economic and Trade Cooperation, Ningbo UniversityMa Xiaolin, Specially Appointed Researcher, Institute for Central […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":12583,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[319,3650,805,1212,683,800,14821,1027,822],"class_list":["post-12582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-donald-trump","tag-european-security","tag-european-union","tag-peace-plan","tag-russia","tag-russia-ukraine-war","tag-trumps-peace-plan","tag-u-s","tag-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s 'Peace Plan' Will Accelerate Europe\u2019s 'Central and Eastern Europeanization' - 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