{"id":12684,"date":"2025-11-17T17:13:39","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T14:13:39","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2025-12-21T10:16:24","modified_gmt":"2025-12-21T07:16:24","slug":"why-the-russian-economy-didnt-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/why-the-russian-economy-didnt-collapse\/","title":{"rendered":"“Why the Russian economy didn’t collapse…”"},"content":{"rendered":"
Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE University, evaluated the debates surrounding the Russian economy for Harici<\/em>: “The Russian business community and Russian officials entered into a collective mobilization to ensure the sustainability and development of the economy.”<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Russia’s leading think tank, the Valdai Discussion Club, held its XVI Asian Conference in collaboration with the Ankara Institute on November 10-11 at the Conrad Hotel in Istanbul. The event was titled “Eurasia in a Fragmented World.”<\/p>\n

The main theme of the conference centered on the question: “Will a new order or disorder emerge from the global deadlock in economy and politics?” Other points of interest included the capacities of BRICS and Asian countries, as well as the harmonies and discord between them.<\/p>\n

During sessions featuring lively debates, speakers were selected from the “non-Western” world, specifically Russia, T\u00fcrkiye, China, and India. On an ideological level, T\u00fcrkiye was the most “Western” participant at the meeting…<\/p>\n

Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE University\u2014one of Moscow\u2019s most prestigious institutions\u2014was among the speakers. We sat down for a conversation about the Russian economy during a lunch break with the Dean, who teaches courses on the economics of sanctions.<\/p>\n

We asked about the resilience mechanisms of the Russian economy, which appears to have passed the test so far, despite Western experts expecting a second collapse similar to the economic bankruptcy of the USSR. According to Likhacheva, if these sanctions had been imposed in 2002, Russia might indeed have collapsed. The Dean emphasized that the trend toward multipolarity over the last 25 years has provided Russia with a foundation for economic resistance.<\/p>\n

Regarding whether there might one day be a return to the West, Likhacheva stated she sees no such possibility in the short term. According to her, Russia\u2019s pivot to the East began long before 2022 and is a strategic, rather than tactical, shift. Believing that they were 20 years late in deepening relations with China, Likhacheva says they are now building a strategic foundation with Asia and the rest of the world. Regarding the freezing of Russian assets, Likhacheva remarks, “We thought this couldn’t be done,” adding, “Russia has learned its lesson.”<\/p>\n

Likhacheva describes the steps taken toward trading in national currencies\u2014a popular topic of debate\u2014as “valuable,” but notes there are limits here as well, suggesting that converting dozens of currencies back and forth could become “a different kind of nightmare.”<\/p>\n

First of all, thank you for taking the time. I have many questions, but I will try to ask them as concisely as possible. How is Russia coping with the Western sanctions imposed after the Ukraine war? After President Putin announced this \u201cspecial military operation\u201d in 2022, we read many articles, especially in the Western press, claiming the Russian economy would collapse for a second time since the fall of the Soviet Union. Western experts expected similar results, but it didn’t happen. What measures did you resort to in the economy?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Actually, I have been teaching “the economics and politics of sanctions” for some time. Therefore, I can shorten my remarks depending on which lens I look through. To frame it briefly: First, we observed what is called “rallying ’round the flag.” The Russian business community and Russian officials entered into a collective mobilization to ensure the sustainability and development of the economy. Because of the “tsunami” effect of the external pressure created by sanctions, a very powerful internal movement formed within our managerial class. This alone was not enough, but it was a necessary first step.<\/p>\n

Second, there is a common narrative that Russia\u2019s pivot to the East only began in 2022. If we had truly started in 2022, we would have collapsed. Russia’s opening to the East began much earlier. Thanks to this, by the time we reached 2022, we had a solid foundation to rapidly increase trade with China, India, Central Asia, the Middle East, and T\u00fcrkiye. In other words, we didn’t start from scratch; we had a strong background.<\/p>\n

Third, we entered a process of very rapid diversification. Historically, the Russian business world has always grown under constant stress. In the 1990s, while the old economic model was completely collapsing, there was an environment where no rules existed for the new one. Then came the 1998 default, the Asian crisis, and global fluctuations. Then came a decade of growth, only for the 2008 global crisis to break out. So, the Russian business world has never been accustomed to working in a long-term, calm, and friendly atmosphere. On the contrary, it has been quite well-trained in working under stressful and crisis-oriented conditions.<\/p>\n

Perhaps your economy has developed a kind of immunity to crises. Could we put it that way?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yes, in a way. In a way, but it is Russia we are talking about. Still, if the same scale of sanctions had been applied in, say, 2002, I am not sure if Russia could have displayed the same degree of resilience it shows today. This is because the world has changed entirely. The share that Asia and the Middle East hold in the global economy, global trade, and global politics has increased extraordinarily. We have seen that China, India, the United Arab Emirates, and T\u00fcrkiye have shown not only the capacity but also the willingness to implement their own independent foreign economic policies. Of course, these countries looked after their own interests by protecting domestic businesses as much as possible from the pressure of American and European sanctioning bodies. But essentially, they followed their own policies and defended their national economic interests. Because by that time, all these countries had the economic volume, sufficient GDP, and enough political and economic power to do so. This leap in power in the twenty-first century played a truly major role in Russia overcoming the initial shock of the sanctions.<\/p>\n

But the West froze approximately $300 billion of Russia’s assets. This is a huge amount of money for T\u00fcrkiye as well…<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is a huge amount of money for Russia too, and for Europe.<\/p>\n

Well, didn’t Moscow or Russian decision-makers foresee such an outcome before Ukraine? How is this issue viewed within Russia?<\/strong><\/p>\n

I think both the Russian authorities and the authorities of many other countries in the world underestimated the capacity and determination of those who defend the legal order and the “rules-based international order.”<\/p>\n

Shall we say you trusted the rule of law and your money was gone?<\/strong><\/p>\n

In reality, what we are experiencing is an extremely crude, extremely brutal crime. We see this clearly when looking at what happened with Russia’s assets. Despite this, I think the risk was underestimated here because some assets of Venezuela and Iran had already been frozen before. So, a precedent had been set. And according to the sanctioning logic of the West, especially America, if something happened before, it can\u2014and even should\u2014happen again in the future. The issue of scale becomes secondary. What matters is that the precedent was established, and it was created in the past. We simply believed that Russia was too big, that our assets were too large; we thought this couldn’t be done. Because such a step would shake the entire reputation of Brussels and Euroclear. And it did. Brussels and Belgium are still looking for every possible way not to actually physically<\/em> steal these assets; they want to freeze them and use them as they wish, but they don’t want to seize them directly. Because Russian assets, if I remember correctly, make up more than 70% of the total assets in Euroclear. And if they truly steal these assets, the owners of the remaining 30% would do everything they can to withdraw their money and move it elsewhere. I think Russia has learned its lesson to at least some extent; now, the majority of our new assets are being directed toward gold.<\/p>\n

How do you evaluate the economic relationship between Russia and China? Also, there is a new term in global politics now: the Global South, right?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Global Majority. That is what we use. Because geographically, Russia cannot be part of the Global South.<\/p>\n

Is this process a tactical move for Russia? In other words, do you expect that one day Russia and the West might sit at the same table and conduct a kind of “New Yalta”? Or are these relationships you’ve established with other parts of the world a tactic developed against the West, or a strategically and permanently oriented economic shift?<\/strong><\/p>\n

I think the idea that this orientation is tactical is a big mistake. After all, we share the world’s longest land border with China, which has been the fastest-growing economy of the last 30 years. It would be irrational for any country in the world not to utilize this opportunity. We lost 20 years in deepening these relations; if we take the 90s and the early 2000s as a starting point, we fell far behind in integration with this region. Now we are rapidly closing that gap. Today we discussed that T\u00fcrkiye is also turning to the East. Iran turned to the East starting from the late 80s. ASEAN countries turned to the East. China has already turned toward its own axis. Because when you look at demographics, economy, and technological innovation, everything is in Asia. It is only natural for Russia to orient itself more toward this region. If one day we experience another “honeymoon” with Europe… I don’t see that as a possibility right now, but let’s assume it happened. That day, Europe would be a completely different Europe, and Russia would be a completely different Russia that has learned how to trade and build relationships with Asia. It would be suicide for Russia to cast aside this new skill and return to the old, exploitative form of relationship.<\/p>\n

Yes, the question is this: Where exactly is the limit of economic relations between T\u00fcrkiye and Russia? I am aware of the major strategic investments Russia has made in T\u00fcrkiye. The nuclear power plant, the TurkStream pipeline, and the S-400 defense system we bought from Russia… these are still on the table. But when I look at the picture, I feel as though Russia’s economic space seems closed to the Turkish business world or business circles. I see that there are some limits, but I cannot describe them. Do you have a definition or explanation for this?<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is certainly no clear definition or rigid formula for this. What we know from history is this: Russia and T\u00fcrkiye can live without each other economically. We saw this in the past. But can we do more? Can we earn more? Yes, we can. Actually, the fact that it is possible<\/em> not to develop economic relations is, I think, the biggest issue and the factor that determines all international interactions. There is the security factor, the political factor; economics is not separate from political economy. However, the number of real projects has increased in recent years; the bonds between people and businesspeople have multiplied. This makes it possible to rely on the network of small and medium-sized projects blossoming around large projects like the nuclear power plant or the gas line. These stand like the main organs of the system, but without this network, it is hard to imagine strong momentum. Additionally, in previous decades, there were significant diasporas on both sides; the Russian community here and the Turkish community in Russia. Now this is also developing, and a new source of economic inspiration could emerge from it.<\/p>\n

The Turkish economy has a large deficit against Russia and China. We sell our products to the West, not to China or Russia. T\u00fcrkiye is trying to open up. We buy natural gas from Russia, but the Russian market is not very open to T\u00fcrkiye. I am trying to understand why economic relations have such limits. After all, we are neighbors. In this case, what is Russia saying to the world\u2014not just to T\u00fcrkiye, but to the world\u2014in the economic field? Does it claim to be establishing a new economic system? Is there a goal to create a parallel world, a parallel economic line, like in the Soviet era?<\/strong><\/p>\n

I believe that what Russia is doing today, and will continue to do in the future, is not a Cold War-style attempt to build a new alternative dollar system centered on the ruble. Furthermore, I think any country that wants to create an alternative by copying the American system but using different currency and institutional names will fail. Because most countries do not want to move from one monopoly to another. Countries truly want options; they deserve to participate in decision-making processes; they deserve a non-exclusionary decision-making order.<\/p>\n

What Russia advocates today is an understanding that goes beyond payments made in national currencies. These payments are, of course, a valuable step; they have reached a certain threshold and will continue. But we all know this: When you try to pay twenty different trade partners in their national currencies, it becomes a total nightmare for central banks and foreign exchange brokers. It requires twenty separate currency swaps. Moreover, in many countries in Eurasia, the risk of fluctuation in local currencies is already high. In other words, you are protected from the dictates of the dollar, but this time you become completely exposed to other types of exchange rate risks. This is one part of the picture. It is acceptable, but what we need in the next stage is a system based on principles of distributed control<\/strong>. In the crypto world, this is called blockchain<\/strong>. However, we can apply the logic of blockchain to other areas of cooperation. Without this, we only have palliative solutions that manage the situation.<\/p>\n

For example, T\u00fcrkiye and Russia could not establish the Mir payment system. There was an effort, but…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Then the Americans came and said, “If you implement the Mir system, we will remove you from Visa and MasterCard.” That’s how they work. That is why an alternative payment system at just a bilateral level is not enough. There is a need for another financial framework that covers many countries. This structure should be based on crypto assets and new technological solutions that provide extremely fast information transfer. Russia, China, India, and some Middle Eastern countries can establish this together and offer it as an open platform to other countries. Otherwise, we cannot be successful tomorrow.<\/p>\n

Could the crypto system be an alternative?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The logic<\/em> of the crypto system…<\/p>\n

So, not the system itself.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yes, I am not advocating for Bitcoin or any other specific currency. The issue here is the logic of the crypto system. Of course, central banks do not like this logic. However, there is an example we see: Even the Russian Central Bank, which is extremely conservative, allows the use of crypto assets in external economic transactions. This is one of the signs pointing toward the direction of the future.<\/p>\n

Well, moving on to the final question.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yes…<\/p>\n

There are many questions, but I chose one last question about the Russian people. Is there a nostalgia for the Soviet era on the economic side? I wonder: From an economic perspective, which ideology is more dominant in Russia today? Is the communist approach still strong in the economy, or does a liberal or neoliberal line prevail, or perhaps a state-led market system? Is there such a systematic or ideological framework in the economic debate in Russia?<\/strong><\/p>\n

We are Russia; we cannot be linear. First of all, if you look at economic management, many liberal economic tools are still used today, and a market economy functions in many aspects. The period after 2022 proved this. On the other hand, Russian society and the Russian Constitution emphasize the social state<\/strong> very clearly. The demand for social rights is deeply nourished by history, the Soviet legacy, and the reality that a significant portion of Russia’s GDP is still derived from raw materials that constitutionally belong to the people. There are companies that manage these resources, but there is a strong social expectation that the profits arising from this production and export should be distributed more fairly. The demand for justice is very deeply ingrained in the ideological vein of Russian society. The framework of this sense of justice may change according to income level, region, and other factors, but this call for justice stands at the center of Russian thought. Regardless of which official framework we place it in, we still do not have a clearly defined national ideology today.<\/p>\n

Thank you.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Thank you.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE University, evaluated the debates surrounding the Russian economy for Harici: “The Russian business community and Russian officials entered into a collective mobilization to ensure the sustainability and development of the economy.” Russia’s leading think tank, the Valdai Discussion Club, held its […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":12685,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[14963,529,52,892,14964,207,683,659,409,822,3537,826],"class_list":["post-12684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interview","tag-anastasia-likhacheva","tag-china","tag-economy","tag-eurasia","tag-hse","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-sanctions","tag-turkiye","tag-ukraine","tag-valdai-discussion-club","tag-war","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"\n"Why the Russian economy didn't collapse..." - 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