{"id":12883,"date":"2026-01-02T13:03:32","date_gmt":"2026-01-02T10:03:32","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-01-02T13:03:32","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T10:03:32","slug":"2026-asia-outlook-a-year-of-critical-elections-and-high-stakes-summits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/2026-asia-outlook-a-year-of-critical-elections-and-high-stakes-summits\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 Asia outlook: A year of critical elections and high-stakes summits"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>For Asia, 2025 was a year marked by significant trade disruptions due to\u00a0US\u00a0tariffs, conflicts in South and Southeast Asia, changes in government in South Korea and Japan, and China conducting trade negotiations with Trump.<\/p>\n<p>In 2026, Asia faces a year filled with numerous elections, political turbulence, and diplomatic summits.\u00a0<em>Nikkei Asia<\/em>\u00a0has <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/spotlight\/your-week-in-asia\/asia-in-2026-bangladesh-vote-vietnam-leadership-change-fifa-world-cup\">compiled<\/a><\/span> the prominent developments for the region:<\/p>\n<p><strong>JANUARY<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Verdict on Abe assassination in Japan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A Japanese district court will announce its verdict regarding the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on January 21. This case brought the activities of the Unification Church, a religious group with strong ties to conservative politicians including Abe, into the spotlight. The 45-year-old murder suspect, Tetsuya Yamagami, and his family suffered financial hardship due to his mother&#8217;s substantial donations to this organization.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Myanmar elections<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Following the first phase conducted in 102 districts on December 28, the Myanmar junta\u2019s Union Election Commission will hold the second phase of general elections in 100 districts on January 11. The third phase is expected to take place on January 25. The elections are proceeding even though the country remains embroiled in civil war and faces political uncertainty. Regional countries are concerned about suspicious voter lists within a strict party system dominated by military allies.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Vietnam Communist Party congress<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Members of the Communist Party of Vietnam will gather in Hanoi from across the country to hold the party\u2019s largest meeting. The gathering will also see the selection of the country\u2019s top leaders for the next five years. The party congress is being held during a critical period in which Vietnam is implementing its most comprehensive reforms in forty years. The new leaders will play a key role in determining whether the country can achieve its ambitious goals, including annual economic growth of at least\u00a0<strong>10%<\/strong>\u00a0starting from 2026.<\/p>\n<p><strong>FEBRUARY<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Bangladesh elections and referendum<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On February 12, Bangladesh will hold its first elections since the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, along with a referendum on a reform package known as the\u00a0<em>July Charter<\/em>. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party is seen as the favorite, gaining momentum with the return of its de facto leader, Tarique Rahman, from London. The Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami is expected to take second place. The National Citizens\u2019 Party, founded by students who led the 2024 uprising, is trailing in the polls. Nationalist-Islamist parties are gaining strength in Bangladesh.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thailand elections<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In the general elections to be held on February 8, Thais will vote for 500 members of the lower house. While 400 of the total will be elected from constituencies across the country, the remaining 100 seats will be distributed based on the total number of votes received by each party. The Election Commission will certify all members of parliament over approximately one month before parliament convenes in April to select the new prime minister.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Laos elections<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Laotians will head to the polls on February 22 to elect representatives for the National Assembly and Provincial People\u2019s Councils ahead of the ruling Lao People\u2019s Revolutionary Party congress. University of Tokyo professor Toshiro Nishizawa predicts that the leadership transition at the congress will lead to technocrats taking a greater role in steering the economy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>MARCH<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Nepal elections<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On March 5, Nepal will hold its first parliamentary elections since protesters\u2014dubbed &#8220;Gen Z&#8221; by the West\u2014toppled the elected government of then-Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli following violent protests that spread nationwide in September, claiming 76 lives. When candidate registration closed at the end of November, over 100 political parties, including the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and Maoist Centre, had announced their candidacies.<\/p>\n<p><strong>China National People\u2019s Congress<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>China will hold its annual National People\u2019s Congress, where Communist Party leaders will review and approve the country\u2019s economic plan for the next five years. The plan was discussed at the party\u2019s significant fourth plenary session in October and focuses heavily on technological innovation and self-sufficiency as the world\u2019s second-largest economy enters a prolonged superpower rivalry with the\u00a0US.<\/p>\n<p><strong>APRIL<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Potential Trump visit to China<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>US\u00a0President Donald Trump stated he plans to visit China in April and potentially launch a series of summit meetings with his rival Xi Jinping that could reshape relations between the two countries. The two leaders finalized a trade truce and reduced tensions regarding tariffs and rare earth elements when they met in South Korea at the end of October, though many issues remain unresolved.<\/p>\n<p><strong>China Auto Show<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s most important auto show will open in Beijing on April 24, showcasing the latest vehicle technologies. The rapid rise of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers has brought the global industry to a turning point. According to the organizer\u2019s website, the\u00a0<em>Auto China<\/em>\u00a0fair will span 380,000 square meters and host over 1,000 exhibitors.<\/p>\n<p><strong>MAY<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Shangri-La Dialogue<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia\u2019s largest defense conference, will be held once again against the backdrop of\u00a0US-China rivalry. While high-level military officials and security analysts are expected to attend the annual conference, it remains a matter of curiosity whether the defense ministers of the world\u2019s two largest economies will participate.<\/p>\n<p><strong>JUNE<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>FIFA World Cup<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On June 11, the FIFA World Cup will commence with host countries Mexico and South Africa facing off in Mexico City. In the tournament, which is also co-hosted by the\u00a0US\u00a0and Canada, Asia-Pacific nations Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Uzbekistan will compete to win the iconic gold trophy, though none are considered favorites. The final match will be played on July 19 in New Jersey.<\/p>\n<p><strong>South Korea local elections<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>South Koreans will elect mayors and other municipal administrators nationwide in local elections traditionally viewed as a report card for the ruling party\u2019s first term. The elections will occur as President Lee Jae Myung completes his first year in office. The most watched seat will be the mayoralty of Seoul, where one-fifth of the population resides. Fundamental issues such as housing and job creation appear set to dominate the pre-election debate agenda.<\/p>\n<p><strong>&#8220;Summer Davos&#8221; in Dalian<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The World Economic Forum will hold its annual summer meeting from June 23\u201325 in the northeastern Chinese city of Dalian. The conference will bring together academics, politicians, executives, and others to discuss current global issues.<\/p>\n<p><strong>JULY<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>NATO Summit in Ankara<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Following the historic NATO summit held in The Hague in 2025, where allies pledged to dedicate\u00a05%\u00a0of their gross domestic product to defense by 2035, the transatlantic defense pact is holding its annual meeting in Ankara, strategically located near Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Caucasus. This marks the second time Turkey has hosted the summit, following the meeting in 2004.<\/p>\n<p><strong>AUGUST<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Start of New J. League calendar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>After 32 seasons, Japan remains set to change its football J. League calendar to an European-style autumn-spring season. To ensure a smooth transition, a mini-league will be held between February and May before the August\u2013May season begins. The goal is to better align the calendar with global transfer windows to increase player values, reduce the number of matches played during the country\u2019s grueling summer months, and synchronize better with continental competitions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SEPTEMBER<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Semicon Taiwan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>One of the year\u2019s most important technology and chip industry events begins on September 2 in Taipei. Last year\u2019s event broke records with over 100,000 visitors and more than 1,000 exhibitors.\u00a0Semicon\u00a0regularly attracts the industry\u2019s biggest names, and executives from\u00a0Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,\u00a0Nvidia, and\u00a0Infineon\u00a0have featured as speakers in the past.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization will hold its annual summit in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. This meeting of the group, which includes other Central Asian countries as well as Russia, India, Pakistan, and Iran, is expected to focus on security.<\/p>\n<p><strong>OCTOBER<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>International Maritime Organization net zero discussions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The International Maritime Organization\u2019s Net Zero Framework was not adopted at the October 2025 meeting due to joint opposition from the\u00a0US, despite being tentatively accepted by IMO members earlier in the year. Instead, it was decided to postpone the vote on the framework, which consists of a global fuel standard and a pricing mechanism for maritime transport emissions, by one year. The sector accounts for approximately\u00a02%\u00a0of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>NOVEMBER<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>ASEAN Summit in the Philippines<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ambassadors and leaders will gather in the Philippines for the ASEAN Summit, one of the most important summits for Asia. All eyes are on Manila as the group\u2019s new chair. Manila\u2019s tenure will determine the bloc\u2019s resilience in the face of deepening geopolitical fractures and economic challenges.<\/p>\n<p><strong>APEC meeting, Shenzhen<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>China will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders&#8217; meeting in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19. By setting the meeting\u2019s theme as &#8220;Building an Asia-Pacific Community for Shared Prosperity,&#8221; China is displaying a stance contrary to the escalating tensions with the\u00a0US, Japan, Taiwan, and other countries.<\/p>\n<p><strong>UN Climate Conference, T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The United Nations\u2019 annual climate talks will be held in the Turkish city of Antalya, but Australia will chair the negotiations following a compromise on hosting duties between Ankara and Canberra. After the 2025 conference in Brazil failed to reach an agreement on a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels due to opposition from oil-producing nations, the focus will be on whether progress can be made this time. The issue of trade, which India and China helped turn into a climate problem in Brazil, will again be on the agenda.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos exit least developed country status<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Five years after the United Nations decision, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos are preparing to exit Least Developed Country status on November 24. This will be a turning point in the economic development of these countries. However, exiting this category means the loss of certain advantages, including trade privileges, and there have even been debates in Bangladesh about whether to delay exiting this status. Dhaka is currently attempting to sign trade agreements to make the transition smooth.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Taiwan local elections<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Voters in Taiwan will cast ballots for mayors, city council members, and other officials on November 28. As Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te\u2019s Democratic Progressive Party battles the main opposition Kuomintang and its new leader Cheng Li-wun, the local elections will be a closely watched indicator of general political momentum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>DECEMBER<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>New Zealand elections<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>New Zealand will hold elections following the dissolution of the current parliament or the expiration of its term, with the deadline for voting set for December 19. The National Party, the dominant member of the ruling coalition, and the opposition Labour Party, which suffered a defeat in the previous elections in 2023, are currently running neck and neck in the polls.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G20 Summit<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The G20 summit will be held over two days starting December 14 at Trump\u2019s golf resort in Miami. The leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will also attend this event, which will form a significant diplomatic platform for Asia\u2019s major powers\u2014China, India, and Japan\u2014upon the invitation of the\u00a0US\u00a0president.<!-- notionvc: 3922e38f-b82e-4205-9cbd-4c352954f812 --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For Asia, 2025 was a year marked by significant trade disruptions due to\u00a0US\u00a0tariffs, conflicts in South and Southeast Asia, changes in government in South Korea and Japan, and China conducting trade negotiations with Trump. In 2026, Asia faces a year filled with numerous elections, political turbulence, and diplomatic summits.\u00a0Nikkei Asia\u00a0has compiled the prominent developments for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12884,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[13882,1685,529,1091,319,712,2172,782,15256,503,870,6632,7689,2106,207,1147,10419,8567,2360,787,409,8340,502,821,786],"class_list":["post-12883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia","tag-asean-summit","tag-bangladesh","tag-china","tag-climate-change","tag-donald-trump","tag-elections","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-g20-summit","tag-geopolitical-rivalry","tag-headline","tag-japan","tag-lai-ching-te","tag-lee-jae-myung","tag-myanmar","tag-nato","tag-philippines","tag-shangri-la-dialogue","tag-shinzo-abe","tag-tariffs","tag-trade-war","tag-turkiye","tag-unification-church","tag-united-nations","tag-us","tag-xi-jinping"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - 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