{"id":13474,"date":"2026-02-05T15:59:30","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T12:59:30","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-02-05T15:59:30","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T12:59:30","slug":"erdogans-diplomatic-chess-and-americas-waning-wars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/erdogans-diplomatic-chess-and-americas-waning-wars\/","title":{"rendered":"Erdogan’s diplomatic chess and America’s waning wars"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ahmed Moustafa, Director and Founder of Asia Center for Studies & Translation Egypt<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The Middle East is witnessing one of the most important diplomatic events in years. On the surface, the convergence seems coincidental: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Riyadh on Tuesday, February 3, at the same time that US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff landed in Tel Aviv. These parallel visits\u2014which precede the talks scheduled between the US and Iran in Muscat, Oman, on Friday, February 6\u2014represent much more than a mere coincidence in the calendar. They signal a fundamental realignment of regional power dynamics, with T\u00fcrkiye positioning itself as an indispensable mediator, while Israel watches anxiously from the sidelines, increasingly isolated by counter-alliances it fears more than anything else.<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan’s visit to Saudi Arabia, his first since July 2023, comes at a pivotal moment. The Turkish president arrived in Riyadh with a heavyweight delegation including Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Ya\u015far G\u00fcler, and Finance Minister Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek\u2014an indication that this was no routine courtesy call. The agenda was ambitious: deepening bilateral trade from $8 billion to $10 billion, expanding defense cooperation including Turkish drone exports, and coordinating positions on Gaza, Syria, and the looming Iran crisis.<\/p>\n

But the real significance lies in what Erdo\u011fan represents\u2014a resurgent T\u00fcrkiye acting as the connective tissue between Riyadh, Cairo, and potentially Tehran. Following his Saudi stop, Erdo\u011fan proceeded to Egypt on Wednesday for the second meeting of the T\u00fcrkiye-Egypt High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. This dual Gulf-Egypt tour consolidates Ankara’s position as the primary diplomatic broker in a region desperately seeking to avoid catastrophic war.<\/p>\n

The current trade volume between Egypt and T\u00fcrkiye is estimated to reach $9-10 billion in 2024, up from $8.6-8.8 billion in 2024. Egypt has a slight trade surplus (around $200-300 million). The future goal is to reach $15 billion in the coming years (by 2028), with Turkish investments in Egypt expected to grow by $300-500 million annually, particularly in the textiles and manufacturing sectors.<\/p>\n

There is no doubt that the timing is deliberate. The talks scheduled for Muscat, Oman (formerly Istanbul) on Friday are significant because Muscat hosted the first 5 rounds of talks as of the spring of 2025, and they know where the negotiations stood. The talks, which bring together US envoy Witkow, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and representatives from Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and possibly Pakistan, represent the first direct contact between the US and Iran since Trump’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in the summer of 2025. T\u00fcrkiye is not just a host; it is coordinating, with Foreign Minister Fidan as the main mediator.<\/p>\n

Israel’s Nightmare: The Counter-Alliance Takes Shape<\/strong><\/p>\n

While Erdo\u011fan courts Saudi favor, Witkoff’s presence in Jerusalem reveals Israeli anxiety at its peak. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s marathon three-hour meeting with the U.S. envoy wasn’t just protocol\u2014it was an urgent attempt to constrain American flexibility before the Muscat summit. Netanyahu reportedly stressed that Iran “cannot be trusted” and demanded that any agreement include zero enrichment and address ballistic missiles and proxy militias\u2014conditions Tehran has already rejected.<\/p>\n

Israel’s fears extend well beyond the nuclear file. The Jerusalem Post reported that Israeli officials believe the U.S. may ultimately choose military action, yet there’s palpable concern that Washington might settle for a limited deal that leaves Iran’s regional capabilities intact. More fundamentally, Israel is confronting the emergence of exactly the counter-alliances the user mentioned: a Turkish-Iranian d\u00e9tente brokered by Ankara, coupled with deepening Turkish-Saudi-Egyptian coordination that increasingly excludes Israeli input.<\/p>\n

The proposed defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and potentially T\u00fcrkiye\u2014though Ankara recently signaled it won’t join formally\u2014represents the kind of “Islamic NATO” that haunts Israeli strategic planners. Even without formal treaty obligations, the coordination between these powers on Gaza reconstruction, Syria’s future, and Iran crisis management creates a regional consensus that bypasses Tel Aviv. When 160 UN member states recognize Palestine\u2014a diplomatic push led jointly by T\u00fcrkiye and Saudi Arabia\u2014Israel finds itself diplomatically encircled by the very moderate Arab states it once courted for normalization.<\/p>\n

This encirclement is economic and military as well as diplomatic. T\u00fcrkiye’s defense industry has penetrated Gulf markets deeply, with Baykar’s $3 billion drone deal with Saudi Arabia representing the largest aviation export contract in Turkish history. Ankara and Riyadh coordinate on Syria’s reconstruction, oppose Israeli expansionism, and increasingly align on Palestinian statehood. Egypt, once hostile to Turkish regional ambitions, now engages in strategic council meetings and joint business forums. The T\u00fcrkiye-Egypt rapprochement, sealed through shared concern over Gaza and mutual interest in Libyan stability, completes an arc of cooperation that leaves Israel looking toward an increasingly coordinated southern and eastern flank.<\/p>\n

The Putin Factor and American Constraints<\/strong><\/p>\n

Compounding Israeli and American concerns, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, at the Kremlin on January 30th\u2014just days before Muscat summit. This unannounced high-level consultation, occurring while Iran faces unprecedented internal unrest and American military pressure, signals Moscow’s determination to maintain Tehran as a strategic partner.<\/p>\n

The Larijani visit follows Washington’s imposition of sanctions on him personally over alleged involvement in suppressing protests that reportedly killed thousands. That Putin would receive him anyway\u2014and discuss “important regional and international issues” per the Kremlin\u2014demonstrates that Russia remains Iran’s insurance policy against total American dominance. Moscow has offered to mediate between Washington and Tehran, but its real role is ensuring Iran doesn’t face the West alone.<\/p>\n

This Russian-Iranian coordination, combined with the emerging T\u00fcrkiye-led regional architecture, creates a multipolar Middle East that constrains American and Israeli freedom of action. The user mentioned the “Ebstein scandalous leaks”\u2014while specific details remain unclear in open sources, the reference likely points to continued political turmoil in Washington that undermines Trump’s ability to pursue aggressive military options. Between domestic scandal, economic headwinds, and the reality that 2025’s strikes failed to permanently degrade Iran’s program, the administration faces diminishing returns on military escalation.<\/p>\n

Economic Realities and the Limits of War<\/strong><\/p>\n

The question of whether Israel and the U.S. can “ignite more wars when their economic conditions are very bad” strikes at the heart of the current moment. Both nations face significant fiscal constraints. The United States carries unprecedented national debt, and the costs of maintaining carrier strike groups in the Persian Gulf, as the average annual operating cost of a single aircraft carrier is approximately $1.5 billion, according to figures from specialized American research centers and the Pentagon\u2014part of Trump’s “massive armada” rhetoric\u2014drain resources even without shots fired. Israel’s economy, battered by fifteen months of war in Gaza and northern tensions, strains under mobilization costs and investor uncertainty.<\/p>\n

Yet economic constraint hasn’t eliminated the appetite for conflict\u2014it has merely forced both powers toward proxy and limited warfare rather than decisive confrontation. Trump’s threats of strikes “with speed and violence” alternate with offers to negotiate, suggesting an administration uncertain whether it can afford either full-scale war or the political cost of apparent appeasement. Israel, for its part, has shifted toward targeted assassinations and air strikes rather than ground invasions of Lebanon or Iran, recognizing its limitations even as it seeks to maintain deterrence.<\/p>\n

Regional powers have noticed this American-Israeli hesitation. When Erdogan, Sisi, and the Saudi leadership coordinate to host talks between the US and Iran, they are not only preventing war, but managing it, channeling great power rivalry into diplomatic frameworks that preserve their own effective role. The Muscat summit is a confirmation of the influence of medium-sized regional powers: Washington and Tehran may be the main players, but Ankara, Riyadh, and Cairo are setting the stage and writing the rules of engagement.<\/p>\n

The Post-American Middle East<\/strong><\/p>\n

What we are witnessing is the emergence of a post-American Middle East, not a Middle East from which Washington has completely withdrawn, but one in which its dominance has been reduced by regional powers that have developed their own agendas and capabilities. T\u00fcrkiye’s mediating role, Saudi-Pakistani defense cooperation, Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement, and the ongoing partnership between Russia and Iran point to a multipolar regional order.<\/p>\n

For Israel, this represents an existential strategic challenge. The Jewish state has built its security on bilateral relations with Washington and periodic peace treaties with its isolated Arab neighbors. It now faces a region in which its former adversaries coordinate through Turkish and Saudi diplomacy, where its American patron is distracted and constrained, and where its military superiority cannot easily be translated into political security.<\/p>\n

The Muscat talks in Amman on February 6, whatever their outcome, symbolize this new reality. They are not taking place in Geneva or Vienna\u2014the traditional venues for superpower negotiations\u2014but in Amman, at the invitation of a NATO member increasingly comfortable with the balance of alliances. Whether they result in a nuclear agreement or merely a postponement of confrontation, they prove that the future of the Middle East will be shaped as much by its internal forces as by external superpowers. In this future, Israel’s isolation is not merely a possibility, but an emerging default situation that its leadership must confront realistically and accept diplomatic compromises that reflect this situation.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ahmed Moustafa, Director and Founder of Asia Center for Studies & Translation Egypt The Middle East is witnessing one of the most important diplomatic events in years. On the surface, the convergence seems coincidental: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Riyadh on Tuesday, February 3, at the same time that US Middle East envoy […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":13476,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[4035,319,582,288,812,16210,207,7757,315,866,1448,683,679,531,409,16209,1192],"class_list":["post-13474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-abbas-araghchi","tag-donald-trump","tag-egypt","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-maskat","tag-nato","tag-oman","tag-pakistan","tag-qatar","tag-recep-tayyip-erdogan","tag-russia","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-syria","tag-turkiye","tag-umman","tag-united-states","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"\nErdogan's diplomatic chess and America's waning wars - Harici<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\""The Middle East is witnessing one of the most important diplomatic events in years. 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