{"id":14024,"date":"2026-03-15T12:29:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-15T09:29:03","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-03-15T13:36:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-15T10:36:07","slug":"former-cia-analyst-warns-us-israel-miscalculation-in-iran-has-triggered-global-economic-chokehold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/former-cia-analyst-warns-us-israel-miscalculation-in-iran-has-triggered-global-economic-chokehold\/","title":{"rendered":"Former CIA analyst warns US-Israel ‘miscalculation’ in Iran has triggered global economic chokehold"},"content":{"rendered":"

In an expansive and sobering assessment of the escalating conflict in Southwest Asia, Larry Johnson, a former CIA intelligence analyst and veteran counter-terrorism official, has characterized the joint US-Israeli offensive against Iran as a catastrophic strategic miscalculation. Speaking with Professor Hasan \u00dcnal on the Strategic Compass<\/em> program, Johnson argued that Washington and West Jerusalem have fundamentally misinterpreted Iranian internal stability and military resilience, precipitating a global economic crisis that now threatens to plunge the West into a prolonged depression.<\/p>\n

The discourse, occurring in the wake of what Johnson termed a “murderous attack” on February 28, centers on the assassination of Iranian leadership and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict enters its 14th day, Johnson warns that the geopolitical architecture of the region is being irreversibly dismantled, with T\u00fcrkiye potentially occupying a precarious position on the “next on the list” of targets for Israeli subversion.<\/p>\n

“A complete miscalculation on the part of the United States and Israel”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Opening the m\u00fclakat, Professor \u00dcnal framed the current hostilities as “straightforward naked aggression” by the US and Israel, noting that the theater of war appears to be deviating significantly from the aggressors’ original blueprints. Johnson concurred, noting that the intelligence community in Washington fell victim to its own manufactured narratives.<\/p>\n

“They underestimated the military capability of Iran,” Johnson stated, adding that the Pentagon and the Mossad “overestimated their own ability to try to destroy the leadership in Iran.” He revealed that US planners labored under the “false belief” that the elimination of the Supreme Leader and high-ranking IRGC officials would trigger a popular uprising. This assumption, according to Johnson, was based on flawed polling data funded by the CIA through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and USAID.<\/p>\n

“They had funded a series of public opinion polls done over the Internet that claimed that 80% of the Iranian population were opposed, violently opposed to the Islamic Republic,” Johnson explained. “Well, it turned out that was a lie.” He cited counter-polling from the University of Maryland, conducted via traditional telephonic methods, which indicated that the regime maintained roughly 70% support. “There is no language to justify what was done other than it was an act of treachery, it was a barbarous act,” Johnson asserted, comparing the current US-Israeli conduct to the war of aggression for which the Nazis were tried at Nuremberg.<\/p>\n

“Do the Turks realize you’re next on the list?”<\/strong><\/p>\n

A significant portion of the conversation focused on the implications for Ankara. Despite the “barking dog seldom bites” proverb cited by Professor \u00dcnal to describe Turkish perceptions of Israeli rhetoric, Johnson issued a stark warning. He suggested that if Israel survives its current confrontation with Tehran, it will pivot its “vicious, out of control” state apparatus toward senior Turkish leadership.<\/p>\n

“Israel is the most vicious, out of control state political organization in the world,” Johnson remarked. “There is no other country that has so wantonly and regularly attacks and kills others, in particular murdering civilians in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iran, in Yemen.” He dismissed the notion of T\u00fcrkiye being able to remain insulated from the chaos, arguing that the Israeli state views T\u00fcrkiye as a strategic obstacle to be subverted rather than a partner to be respected.<\/p>\n

Johnson noted that the US has long used T\u00fcrkiye for its own purposes without regard for Ankara\u2019s long-term interests. “T\u00fcrkiye is somebody to be used for our purposes,” he said, reflecting the prevailing view in Washington. He cautioned that any Turkish cooperation in “crushing” Iran would not be met with Israeli gratitude, but with further subversion. “They\u2019re going to subvert you, they\u2019re going to destroy you, they\u2019re going to get rid of you,” he warned, characterizing President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019s attempts to manage the Israelis as “foolish.”<\/p>\n

“Donald Trump is under the control of the Zionists”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Addressing the domestic political drivers in the US, Johnson reiterated his controversial stance that the American government remains “under occupation” by the Israeli lobby. He pointed to the frequent visits by Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington\u2014seven since Donald Trump took office\u2014as evidence of the administrative hierarchy being given “instructions.”<\/p>\n

“Donald Trump is under the control of the Zionists, as are many members of the US Congress,” Johnson claimed. He argued that for 46 years, the US and Israel have propagated the “absolute false” claim that Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. Drawing on his experience at the Bureau of Counterterrorism and data from the CIA and the National Counterterrorism Center, Johnson argued that the primary drivers of international terrorism over the last quarter-century have been Sunni jihadist elements, specifically Takfiri and Wahhabi groups often linked to Saudi billionaires, rather than Tehran.<\/p>\n

“Iran is absolutely not the number one sponsor of terrorism, not even anywhere close,” Johnson said. He highlighted Iran’s historical restraint, noting that during the eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s, Tehran refused to retaliate with chemical weapons despite being targeted by Iraqi gas provided by the US. He credited this to the “spiritual guidance” of the leadership which viewed such weapons as “a sin against Allah.”<\/p>\n

“Grabbed the world economy by the throat and is choking it”<\/strong><\/p>\n

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has transformed the military conflict into a global economic siege. Johnson reported that even in the US, which is largely energy independent, the psychological and market effects are acute. He cited a 54% increase in gasoline prices at a Florida station within a single week as a harbinger of things to come.<\/p>\n

However, Johnson identified a more “dangerous cut off” than petroleum: the supply of urea and nitrogen for fertilizer. “People can live without gasoline. You can walk instead of drive your car… but no fertilizer, no food,” he said. “Famine, starvation is now a definite possibility six to seven months from now.” He predicted that oil could reach $200 a barrel before a collapse in demand triggers a global depression.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s strategic leverage, Johnson argued, is now absolute. “Iran’s not going to let go of its chokehold. Why should it?” he asked, noting that Tehran is now in a position to demand reparations, the total lifting of sanctions, and ironclad security guarantees that it will never again be attacked by the US or Israel.<\/p>\n

“Iran’s military and defense sites are built into mountains… basically impervious to Western missiles”<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the tactical front, the war has exposed the limits of both Western and Eastern technology. Johnson noted that while a Chinese-provided air defense radar system reportedly failed in a combat environment, the Iranian military has successfully downed sophisticated US MQ-9 Reaper and Israeli Hermes drones.<\/p>\n

He clarified that while the US JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) has inflicted damage on Iranian infrastructure, it has failed to disarm the nation. “Iran is three times the size of Ukraine,” Johnson reminded the audience. He noted that unlike Israel, which has 55% of its population concentrated in just two cities\u2014Haifa and Tel Aviv\u2014Iran is vast, with its critical assets buried deep underground.<\/p>\n

“Iran doesn’t have to target a hundred different places… it only has to worry about two places, Haifa and Tel Aviv,” Johnson said. He revealed that at least one US base in the Persian Gulf has completely “run out of air defense cover,” leaving personnel vulnerable. “Iranian missiles can penetrate and hit them at will.”<\/p>\n

“Russia is in a position… the world now needs it and needs it desperately”<\/strong><\/p>\n

The primary beneficiary of this regional implosion, according to Johnson, is Moscow. With the Persian Gulf neutralized, Russia remains the only global power with ample supplies of oil, liquid natural gas, and fertilizer. “Russia is in a position… the world now needs it and needs it desperately, and I\u2019m sure Russia will take advantage of that,” he said.<\/p>\n

In his concluding remarks, Johnson emphasized that the era of US hegemony in the Middle East\u2014characterized by “milking” Gulf Arab states for decades under the guise of protection\u2014has ended. The failure to stop Iranian missile barrages and the inability to protect Israel’s “multi-layered” air defense system from Hezbollah\u2019s four-hour saturating strikes have shattered the perception of US invincibility.<\/p>\n

“The United States is Goliath,” Johnson concluded. “And now Iran, like David, has hit the United States right between the eyes with the stone and the United States has collapsed.”<\/p>\n