Calculations<\/a><\/span> by the Financial Times, based on Bloomberg data, put the notional value of those trades at $580 million.<\/p>\nTrading volumes in Brent and WTI spiked simultaneously 27 seconds before 06:50. Shortly after the oil trades, futures tracking the S&P 500 rose, with volumes also increasing markedly during that interval.<\/p>\n
It was not clear whether a single institution or multiple entities were behind Monday\u2019s trades.<\/p>\n
At 07:04, Trump\u2019s statement triggered a sharp sell-off in global energy markets as investors scaled back expectations of a prolonged conflict. At the same time, S&P 500 futures and European equities moved higher.<\/p>\n
The well-timed transactions echoed a recent wave of highly profitable bets on the prediction market Polymarket, where traders had speculated on the timing of US strikes on Iran and Venezuela.<\/p>\n
A market strategist at a US brokerage, referring to Monday\u2019s activity, said: \u201cIt\u2019s hard to prove causality\u2026 but you have to wonder who was being relatively aggressive in selling futures 15 minutes before Trump\u2019s post.\u201d<\/p>\n
White House spokesperson Kush Desai said: \u201cPresident Trump and officials in the Trump administration are solely focused on doing what is best for the American people.\u201d<\/p>\n
Desai added: \u201cThe White House does not tolerate any official profiting illegally from inside information, and suggestions made without evidence that officials engaged in such activity are baseless and irresponsible reporting.\u201d<\/p>\n
Several hedge funds said the trades were one of many recent instances of large market moves preceding official US government announcements.<\/p>\n
A trader at a large hedge fund said energy consultants had recently identified several sizable block trades whose timing appeared \u201cunusual.\u201d<\/p>\n
Another portfolio manager said a series of large, well-timed trades had created a sense of \u201cfrustration\u201d among investors:<\/p>\n
\u201cMy instinct, from watching markets for 25 years, is that this is really abnormal. On Monday morning, there was no major data, no Fed speaker you\u2019d want to front-run. It\u2019s an unusually large trade for a day without event risk\u2026 someone just got a lot richer.\u201d<\/p>\n
Later on Monday, in a post on X, Iran\u2019s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf denied that any negotiations had taken place between Washington and Tehran.<\/p>\n
\u201cFalse news is being used to manipulate financial and oil markets and to help the US and Israel out of the quagmire they are stuck in,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
His remarks pushed global equities lower and prompted renewed buying in energy markets.<\/p>\n
A commodities trader said the scale of the oil futures selling was not exceptionally large compared with volumes in what had already been a volatile pre-war market. However, the trader noted a sharp move in Europe\u2019s TTF gas benchmark at roughly the same time.<\/p>\n
Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at consultancy Energy Aspects, said: \u201cThis is higher volume than I would have expected at that time in Brent and WTI, but not extremely high. I struggle somewhat to connect the dots here.\u201d<\/p>\n
Skirrow added that Brent futures and options markets had seen \u201csignificant inflows\u201d from funds in recent weeks.<\/p>\n
\u201cLooking at the price reaction, almost everyone appears to be long. That is almost inevitably a precursor to a move of this magnitude,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Investors executed roughly half a billion dollars in oil trades just minutes before Donald Trump announced \u201cproductive\u201d talks with Iran, prompting questions about timing and market awareness. On Monday, between 06:49 and 06:50 New York time, approximately 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts changed hands. The transactions occurred about 15 minutes before the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14152,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[176],"tags":[17423,9476,13238,319,14204,302,17422,6092,6848,17427,288,17424,17425,17421,17426,5854,17428,17429,2325,5950],"class_list":["post-14151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-america","tag-bloomberg-data","tag-brent-crude","tag-derivatives","tag-donald-trump","tag-energy-aspects","tag-financial-times","tag-futures-trading","tag-global-energy-markets","tag-hedge-funds","tag-insider-trading-concerns","tag-iran","tag-kush-desai","tag-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf","tag-oil-markets","tag-polymarket","tag-sp-500-futures","tag-tim-skirrow","tag-ttf-gas-benchmark","tag-white-house","tag-wti"],"yoast_head":"\n
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