{"id":15172,"date":"2026-06-04T14:24:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T11:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/?p=15172"},"modified":"2026-06-04T14:24:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T11:24:12","slug":"oecd-warns-prolonged-iran-energy-shock-could-trigger-global-recession-and-spike-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/oecd-warns-prolonged-iran-energy-shock-could-trigger-global-recession-and-spike-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"OECD warns prolonged Iran energy shock could trigger global recession and spike inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

A prolonged disruption in energy supplies resulting from conflict in Iran would deal a severe blow to the global economy, according to a new economic outlook report<\/a><\/span> published on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

The research data indicated that such disruptions are highly likely to push countries into recession and lead to an increase in unemployment.<\/p>\n

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) described the effects of the war in question as the “dominant force shaping the global economic outlook.”<\/p>\n

The report noted that if disruptions become persistent, global growth could slow down significantly, falling from 2.1% in 2026 to 1.8% in 2027. This deceleration could depress the world economy to levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Recession.<\/p>\n

“With upward pressures from high commodity prices partially offset by weakening final demand, global inflation would rise by 0.4 percentage points in 2026 and by 1.3 percentage points in 2027,” OECD Chief Economist Stefano Scarpetta stated in the report.<\/p>\n

Developing economies with limited energy reserves, alongside Asian economies heavily dependent on crude oil, fuel, and natural gas, were identified as being among the hardest hit by this situation.<\/p>\n

Focusing on an alternative short-term scenario, researchers reported that if energy production and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz return to pre-conflict levels, growth could rebound to 3.1% in 2027.<\/p>\n

The researchers stated that the vulnerability of the global economy to a “single choke point” underscores the necessity of strengthening supply chains and creating a more diversified energy supply. They emphasized that increasing investment to escape dependence on fossil fuel imports is now more urgent than ever.<\/p>\n

The report also pointed out that rising defense spending this year is unlikely to expand productive capacity unless it generates spillover effects in non-defense sectors through innovation.<\/p>\n

Scarpetta noted that policymakers face difficult decisions, stating, “Central banks could look through supply-driven price increases as long as inflation expectations remain well-anchored and second-round effects are kept under control. However, a policy move may become necessary if price pressures broaden or if growth weakens significantly.”<\/p>\n

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices high since the US and Israel launched initial strikes against Iran in late February.<\/p>\n

Although average fuel prices in the US have declined due to the influence of recent talks aimed at reaching an agreement to end the conflict, they remained high at $4.26, according to data released<\/a><\/span> by AAA on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

Following an average of $3.14 last year, the average last week also remained elevated, standing at the $4.50 level.<\/p>\n

Public opinion polls conducted since the beginning of the conflict have revealed that a majority of Americans do not support the war due to the prolonged impacts on the cost of living.<\/p>\n

The latest poll, published<\/a><\/span> by Politico on Friday, showed that more than 60% of respondents believe President Trump has not done enough to protect Americans from the economic impacts of the war.<\/p>\n

Fifty-three percent of those surveyed expressed that the cost of living is at the worst level they can remember, while a majority stated that their financial situation has deteriorated since Trump returned to office.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A prolonged disruption in energy supplies resulting from conflict in Iran would deal a severe blow to the global economy, according to a new economic outlook report published on Wednesday. The research data indicated that such disruptions are highly likely to push countries into recession and lead to an increase in unemployment. The Organisation for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15173,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[175],"tags":[19206,17011,11756,7308,6312,319,4999,3865,8023,17039,829,503,917,288,4050,4288,8810,6907,3456,1126,19205,10763,1966],"class_list":["post-15172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-diplomacy","tag-aaa","tag-commodity-prices","tag-cost-of-living","tag-crude-oil","tag-defense-spending","tag-donald-trump","tag-economic-outlook","tag-energy-security","tag-energy-supply","tag-fuel-prices","tag-global-economy","tag-headline","tag-inflation","tag-iran","tag-monetary-policy","tag-natural-gas","tag-oecd","tag-politico","tag-public-opinion","tag-recession","tag-stefano-scarpetta","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-supply-chains"],"yoast_head":"\nOECD warns prolonged Iran energy shock could trigger global recession and spike inflation - 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