{"id":15477,"date":"2026-06-26T12:41:47","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T09:41:47","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-06-26T12:41:47","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T09:41:47","slug":"us-pce-inflation-surges-to-4-1-in-may-as-war-in-iran-drives-up-energy-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/us-pce-inflation-surges-to-4-1-in-may-as-war-in-iran-drives-up-energy-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"US PCE inflation surges to 4.1% in May as war in Iran drives up energy prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

Federal inflation data released<\/a><\/span> on Thursday showed prices recording their fastest annual increase in three years, presenting severe challenges for President Donald Trump and economic policymakers.<\/p>\n

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation metric, revealed that prices rose 4.1% over the past year, with a 0.7% increase in May alone.<\/p>\n

While a significant portion of the increase was driven by high energy prices linked to the war in Iran, the broad-based nature of the price increases in May has alarmed economists.<\/p>\n

Five key takeaways emerge from the newly released data:<\/p>\n

The rising cost of the war in Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n

The new PCE report underscores the stark costs of the war in Iran, where global supplies of oil and other key commodities have been disrupted following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

US households spent $552.8 billion on gasoline and other energy products in May, up from $422.3 billion in February and $401.6 billion in May 2025.<\/p>\n

Prices for gasoline and energy products rose by 6.5% in May, following a 20.9% surge in March and a 5.5% increase in April. March marked the first full month of the war in Iran.<\/p>\n

“Inflation is at a three-year high because of the war in Iran, and it\u2019s a grinding process for middle- and lower-income Americans,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in an analysis.<\/p>\n

Trump’s cost-of-living challenge deepens<\/strong><\/p>\n

President Trump last week expressed confidence that inflation would quickly recede following an agreement reached with Iran that allowed a significant resumption of oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

In response to that development, crude oil prices fell sharply, and retail gasoline prices began trending downward in June.<\/p>\n

However, Long warned that the May inflation data shows Americans are facing a much deeper cost-of-living crisis even as they wait for gasoline prices to permanently fall.<\/p>\n

Even excluding volatile food and energy costs, core annual inflation reached 3.4% in May. The core index rose 0.3% last month alone, remaining well above the Fed’s 2% annual target.<\/p>\n

“The inflation spike isn’t just about oil,” Long said. “Shelter, healthcare, and electricity are also squeezing family budgets and driving overall inflation.”<\/p>\n

Trump already faced severe voter backlash over inflation before launching the war in Iran. Having campaigned during the 2024 presidential race on a promise to bring down prices, the president and Republicans are struggling to convince voters they can be trusted on the issue.<\/p>\n

Trump also abruptly canceled a signing ceremony scheduled for Wednesday for a bipartisan housing bill that passed the House of Representatives earlier this week, disrupting what could have been a key legislative victory for the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections.<\/p>\n

While Trump initially said he was holding up the legislation due to a dispute with Senate Republicans over a voting rights bill, he told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that only lower interest rates would truly revive the housing market.<\/p>\n

“It’s all about the interest rate,” Trump said. “Get the interest rate down.”<\/p>\n

Rising pressure on the Fed over interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n

Following the hot inflation data, a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is increasingly seen as highly unlikely.<\/p>\n

Members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee voted unanimously last week to hold interest rates steady as inflation continued to rise and the labor market showed signs of improvement.<\/p>\n

The combination of high inflation and resilient economic activity undercuts the likelihood of the Fed stimulating the economy through interest rate cuts. If both inflation and labor demand continue to climb, the Fed may even be forced to raise rates.<\/p>\n

Bill Adams, chief US economist at Fifth Third Bank, offered the following assessment:<\/p>\n

“If core inflation is still running at these rates in September, or if labor supply constraints start pushing the unemployment rate down, a rate hike will become likely,” Adams said. “In the near term, the biggest upside risks to inflation come from the AI boom straining prices for electronics and power, and from labor-intensive services in industries with high shares of foreign-born workers.”<\/p>\n

Global volatility clouds the outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n

A long-term resolution to the war in Iran could help bring down gasoline prices and ease broader inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n

However, lingering uncertainties over the US-Iran deal and Israel’s continued military pressure on Lebanon keep the risk of new flashpoints alive.<\/p>\n

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Thursday that despite efforts by international bodies to restore normal maritime traffic in the Gulf, tankers must navigate Iranian-controlled routes in the Strait of Hormuz or risk attack.<\/p>\n

According to data and analytics firm Kpler, the United Nations International Maritime Organization launched an operation earlier this week to evacuate more than 11,000 seafarers from the strait, confirming Thursday that the number of transiting vessels had risen to 70.<\/p>\n

Economic activity persists despite price hikes<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US economy has remained resilient in the face of high inflation, buoyed by rising consumer spending and falling weekly jobless claims.<\/p>\n

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.3% in May, even as prices climbed at a faster pace.<\/p>\n

This indicates that consumers are largely funding their expenditures through savings or stock market gains.<\/p>\n

“The personal saving rate has fallen to 3% in recent months, down from 4.6% in 2025, which suggests consumers are dipping into savings or drawing on wealth to fund spending,” said Michael Pearce, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “Rising financial wealth continues to support spending among higher-income households.”<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Federal inflation data released on Thursday showed prices recording their fastest annual increase in three years, presenting severe challenges for President Donald Trump and economic policymakers. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation metric, revealed that prices rose 4.1% over the past year, with a 0.7% increase in May alone. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15478,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[176],"tags":[19803,3291,319,2052,5278,5856,19802,16949,503,17888,917,4051,288,17891,4050,17887,17890,2879,19801,10763,821],"class_list":["post-15477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-america","tag-bill-adams","tag-consumer-spending","tag-donald-trump","tag-economic-growth","tag-energy-prices","tag-federal-reserve","tag-fifth-third-bank","tag-gasoline","tag-headline","tag-heather-long","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-iran","tag-michael-pearce","tag-monetary-policy","tag-navy-federal-credit-union","tag-oxford-economics","tag-pce","tag-personal-consumption-expenditures","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-us"],"yoast_head":"\nUS PCE inflation surges to 4.1% in May as war in Iran drives up energy prices - 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