{"id":15589,"date":"2026-07-06T14:57:45","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T11:57:45","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-07-06T14:57:45","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T11:57:45","slug":"oil-market-recovery-toward-pre-war-levels-erodes-irans-leverage-over-strait-of-hormuz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/oil-market-recovery-toward-pre-war-levels-erodes-irans-leverage-over-strait-of-hormuz\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil market recovery toward pre-war levels erodes Iran\u2019s leverage over Strait of Hormuz"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Wall Street Journal reports<\/a><\/span> that the rapid recovery of the oil market toward pre-war levels between the US and Iran is placing Tehran\u2019s leverage over global energy markets at risk, citing evaluations from industry analysts.<\/p>\n

Sector analyses indicate that oil prices, currently hovering around $70 per barrel, could decline further in the coming months.<\/p>\n

Analysts at Macquarie and Citigroup project that the price of oil could fall to as low as $60 per barrel.<\/p>\n

Alongside expectations of falling prices, tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly returning to its previous patterns, while oil producers in the Persian Gulf are restarting idle wells.<\/p>\n

The Wall Street Journal notes, however, that replenishing global oil reserves will take considerably longer. According to the newspaper, the faster nations rebuild their stockpiles, the less leverage Iran will have to pressure the global economy with threats of closing the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Analysts consulted by the newspaper believe that restoring global inventories could take months, or even years.<\/p>\n

Two primary factors are accelerating this replenishment process: falling prices and the emergence of an unexpected supply surplus in the market.<\/p>\n

“The sharp increase in oil supply is about to confront a market that, at least for now, does not need this supply,” said Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan.<\/p>\n

Rory Johnston, founder of the research firm Commodity Context, described the market’s transition from facing a dangerous supply squeeze to reaching a state of near-abundance as “almost a comical development.”<\/p>\n

According to data shared by the newspaper, between 30 and 60 tankers are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz daily. While this remains lower than pre-war levels, it is sufficient to ease pressure on the global oil market.<\/p>\n

Data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa reveals that approximately 140 million barrels of oil were transported through the strait in June, averaging 4.7 million barrels per day.<\/p>\n

In May, daily transit volume had fallen to 2 million barrels. Since the beginning of July, oil flows along this route have reached approximately 40% of pre-war benchmarks.<\/p>\n

Following the resumption of maritime shipping and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the Indian government announced on July 4 that it had lifted LNG supply restrictions imposed on non-essential economic sectors.<\/p>\n

Activity in the strait partially recovered following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. In early March, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Brent crude had risen as high as $119.5 per barrel.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Wall Street Journal reports that the rapid recovery of the oil market toward pre-war levels between the US and Iran is placing Tehran\u2019s leverage over global energy markets at risk, citing evaluations from industry analysts. Sector analyses indicate that oil prices, currently hovering around $70 per barrel, could decline further in the coming months. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15590,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[9476,5948,20057,7308,3865,20059,1092,288,2221,2338,20055,20056,5952,2769,20058,10763,20060,1192,18171],"class_list":["post-15589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middleeast","tag-brent-crude","tag-citigroup","tag-commodity-context","tag-crude-oil","tag-energy-security","tag-global-reserves","tag-india","tag-iran","tag-jpmorgan","tag-lng","tag-macquarie","tag-natasha-kaneva","tag-oil-market","tag-persian-gulf","tag-rory-johnston","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-tanker-transit","tag-united-states","tag-vortexa"],"yoast_head":"\nOil market recovery toward pre-war levels erodes Iran\u2019s leverage over Strait of Hormuz - Harici<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The rapid recovery of the oil market and resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz are eroding Iran\u2019s leverage over global energy.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/oil-market-recovery-toward-pre-war-levels-erodes-irans-leverage-over-strait-of-hormuz\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil market recovery toward pre-war levels erodes Iran\u2019s leverage over Strait of Hormuz - 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