report<\/a><\/span> by The Wall Street Journal, Tehran is turning to a tactic similar to the strategy it pursued during the 1980 American hostage crisis.<\/p>\nDuring the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, the US Embassy in Tehran was stormed on 4 November, and 66 American diplomats were taken hostage.<\/p>\n
The militants demanded the extradition of the ousted Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, whilst a military operation launched by the US armed forces to rescue the hostages ended in failure.<\/p>\n
The hostages were released only on 20 January 1981, the day Ronald Reagan was sworn into office, following 444 days in captivity. The crisis severed diplomatic ties between the US and Iran and stood among the primary factors behind President Jimmy Carter’s defeat in the 1980 election.<\/p>\n
Those events are regarded as one of the earliest examples in US political history of an “October surprise”, a term used for eleventh-hour developments capable of directly altering election outcomes.<\/p>\n
Today, the Tehran government is also taking into account the decline in American public support for war, driven by rising petrol prices. Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argues that the Iranian leadership does not wish to ease pressure on Trump ahead of the November midterm elections.<\/p>\n
“As time runs out, the prevailing view in Tehran is, ‘Why should we relieve pressure on Trump to get him to make concessions? Let us make him feel this pain at the ballot box,'” Geranmayeh evaluated.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, Tehran appears to be approaching a strategic crossroads. Iranian officials previously calculated that they could endure the US blockade for approximately five months without suffering economically devastating consequences.<\/p>\n
Vali Nasr, who previously took part in informal contacts with Iran at the US Department of State, notes that Tehran will have to choose between making concessions or opting for military escalation to minimise any compromises in potential future negotiations.<\/p>\n
Nasr says that even if Tehran is compelled to return to the negotiating table and make concessions, it aims to keep those compromises limited by applying greater military pressure.<\/p>\n
Within Iran’s borders, deteriorating economic conditions are straining the administration. As the rial depreciates, inflation is climbing, petrol shortages are emerging, and President Masoud Pezeshkian states that trade volume has recorded a decline of between 25% and 35%.<\/p>\n
Civilian leaders, including Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, want negotiations with the US to resume.<\/p>\n
Conversely, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, stated in August that the confrontation with the US could extend until the end of Trump’s presidential term.<\/p>\n
Arguing that this choice would ensure Iran’s security, Naqdi stated that they seek to attain a level of deterrence where a potential adversary comprehends the costs of attacking Iran.<\/p>\n
Regarding attacks on commercial vessels and allegations of international maritime law violations, General Naqdi claimed that in the event of war, the country could place any transport route it perceives as a threat under its control, adding: “This rule applies to every place in the world where war is being waged.”<\/p>\n
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had previously remarked in private conversations that he could end the war even without a nuclear agreement, presenting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to navigation as a victory for the US.<\/p>\n
The Republican leader had nevertheless declared halting Iran’s nuclear programme as one of the fundamental objectives of the military operation.<\/p>\n
In a statement on 2 September, Trump announced that he had ended his pursuit of reaching a peace deal with Iran.<\/p>\n
Stating that he preferred establishing near-total control over the Strait of Hormuz and weakening Iran’s economy further, Trump shortly before those remarks initiated Operation “Economic Pariah”, aimed at cutting off Tehran’s external revenue. Trump described the move as “the most devastating economic operation ever conducted against a country”.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Iranian leadership aims to use the US midterm elections as leverage to increase pressure on US President Donald Trump and secure more favourable terms in the conflict. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Tehran is turning to a tactic similar to the strategy it pursued during the 1980 American hostage crisis. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16419,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[21781,319,21783,15480,288,14512,8989,2579,11843,17425,21784,21782,13820,10763,919,7526,1192,1643],"class_list":["post-16418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middleeast","tag-1980-hostage-crisis","tag-donald-trump","tag-ellie-geranmayeh","tag-european-council-on-foreign-relations","tag-iran","tag-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps","tag-jimmy-carter","tag-masoud-pezeshkian","tag-midterm-elections","tag-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf","tag-mohammad-reza-naqdi","tag-october-surprise","tag-ronald-reagan","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-tehran","tag-the-wall-street-journal","tag-united-states","tag-vali-nasr"],"yoast_head":"\n
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