expanding<\/a><\/span> with considerable strength, according to German Foreign Policy.<\/p>\nIn the first half of 2026, German exports to Poland grew by 9.2%, while exports to the Czech Republic rose by 14%.<\/p>\n
During the same period, exports to China fell by 12.4%, and exports to the US contracted by 6.5%.<\/p>\n
Germany currently exports nearly 50% more goods to Poland than it does to China.<\/p>\n
The German Eastern Business Committee describes the region as a “key region for German exports” and is demanding the expansion of the EU single market through the admission of eastern and south-eastern countries into the EU.<\/p>\n
At the same time, China’s economic influence in Eastern Europe is also expanding. However, Chinese companies are not merely competing with German firms; they are also becoming increasingly integrated into European production chains.<\/p>\n
The EU and its neighbourhood carry great weight for German industry<\/strong><\/p>\nAn intensifying international competitive environment is elevating the importance of the EU single market for the German export sector.<\/p>\n
In 2024, just under 54% of all German goods exports went to EU member states. In 2019, this share stood at approximately 51%.<\/p>\n
The five largest export markets within the EU in 2024 were France, with goods valued at 111 billion euros; the Netherlands, with 105 billion euros; Poland, with 90 billion euros; Italy, with 78 billion euros; and Austria, with 72 billion euros.<\/p>\n
Approximately 52% of Germany’s exports to the EU consisted of intermediate goods, such as metals, basic chemicals, or electrical components, which undergo further processing in other EU countries, often at the foreign facilities of German companies.<\/p>\n
Capital goods, such as machinery and equipment, accounted for 17% of exports, while consumer goods comprised approximately one-third.<\/p>\n
The growing concentration on Europe carries certain risks. Because the German economy had diversified its trade heavily towards Asia, it was less affected by the eurozone crisis than other EU member states.<\/p>\n
The decline in this geographical diversification heightens the vulnerability of the German export model to crises.<\/p>\n
The export boom in Eastern Europe<\/strong><\/p>\nCentral and Eastern European countries in particular managed to compensate for the declines in exports to China and the US.<\/p>\n
One reason for these declines is that the People’s Republic of China has begun producing domestically many high-tech products previously imported from Germany; another is that exports to the US were adversely affected by Trump’s tariffs.<\/p>\n
Cathrina Claas-M\u00fcller, chairwoman of the German Eastern Business Committee (OA), told the Handelsblatt newspaper: “Central and Eastern Europe has become a key region for German exports.”<\/p>\n
While the volume of German exports to China and the US fell overall by just over 10 billion euros, Central and Eastern Europe more than made up for these drops with an increase of approximately eleven billion euros.<\/p>\n
Claas-M\u00fcller emphasised that “Central and South-Eastern Europe [\u2026] cannot, of course, replace China and the US.” However, she stated that recognizing the region’s importance for Germany’s economic development is vital.<\/p>\n
For this reason, the chairwoman argued that the European single market must be expanded rapidly towards the east and south-east so that the region’s potential can be utilized in the best possible way, even beyond existing EU borders.<\/p>\n
The OA chairwoman stressed that progress in EU accession negotiations conducted with Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkan countries must be “courageously seized.”<\/p>\n
Germany’s industrial core: the Visegrad countries<\/strong><\/p>\nWithin Central and Eastern Europe, the Visegrad countries (Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia) occupy a prominent position.<\/p>\n
These countries have become some of the most critical manufacturing hubs worldwide for German industry.<\/p>\n
From Germany’s perspective, these countries offer several investment advantages: geographical proximity to Western Europe, a well-developed industrial infrastructure, an extensive pool of skilled labour, and relatively low wage levels.<\/p>\n
German companies maintain a strong presence in this region across core sectors such as mechanical engineering and the automotive industry, alongside the chemical and electrical sectors.<\/p>\n
In the first half of 2026, German exports to China fell by 12.4% compared with the same period of the previous year, while exports to the US declined by 6.5%.<\/p>\n
In contrast, German exports to Hungary rose by 6.7%, exports to Poland grew by 9.2%, and exports to the Czech Republic increased by up to 14%.<\/p>\n
From January to June, Germany exported goods worth 53.8 billion euros to Poland. Exports to China, by comparison, reached only 36.3 billion euros.<\/p>\n
This means Germany exported nearly 50% more goods to Poland than to China.<\/p>\n
Poland has ranked as the fourth most important market for German companies since 2024; China currently sits in only ninth place.<\/p>\n
Even the Czech Republic, a much smaller country, came close to China with 30.3 billion euros in German exports.<\/p>\n
Poland between Germany and China<\/strong><\/p>\nAt the same time, Poland is also increasing its imports from China.<\/p>\n
In the first half of the year, the country imported German goods worth 43.1 billion euros (18.6% of total imports) and Chinese goods worth 36.7 billion euros (15.9% of total imports).<\/p>\n
The US ranked third, with imports valued at 12.7 billion euros (5.5% of total imports).<\/p>\n
In July, for the first time, more goods were shipped to Poland from China than from Germany.<\/p>\n
A tripartite trade pattern is becoming increasingly pronounced in Poland: China is gaining importance as a supplier of electronics, automobiles, and other consumer goods, while Germany retains its central position in terms of investments and European production chains.<\/p>\n
In parallel, Germany remains the undisputed leader when it comes to Polish exports: Poland exported goods worth 59.7 billion euros to Germany. This figure constitutes 26.3% of Poland’s total goods exports.<\/p>\n
Czechia and France follow, each accounting for approximately 14 billion euros.<\/p>\n
Competition and division of labour between Germany and China<\/strong><\/p>\nChinese companies in Central and Eastern Europe are not solely competing with German firms.<\/p>\n
This dynamic is clearly visible in the German automotive industry’s network in Hungary. In 2022, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), the Chinese firm that is the world’s largest battery manufacturer, announced that it would establish a new factory in Debrecen in eastern Hungary.<\/p>\n
CATL also supplies batteries to companies including BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, and Stellantis, which manufacture in Hungary as well.<\/p>\n
In 2023, other Chinese companies, such as Huayou Cobalt and Sunwoda Electronics, also invested in Hungary.<\/p>\n
In 2024, Eve Energy joined this trend by establishing a factory to supply BMW.<\/p>\n
The integration of Chinese car manufacturers and suppliers into European automotive production has now become a widespread strategy to address the automotive crisis.<\/p>\n
In Spain, France, and Italy, Stellantis plans to utilise idle production capacity by building models for Chinese companies Leapmotor and Dongfeng. Leapmotor models will be produced at Stellantis plants in Madrid and Zaragoza.<\/p>\n
Plans in France call for the joint production of an electric car with Dongfeng, while in Italy, joint production of a compact electric car with Leapmotor is planned.<\/p>\n
Production of an Opel SUV using Chinese technology is also planned in Madrid.<\/p>\n
Volkswagen’s new strategy likewise aims to produce VW models previously sold only in China for the European market.<\/p>\n
The plan to bring its Chinese models to the European market involves both imports from China and, at a later stage, the manufacturing of the vehicles or their components in Europe.<\/p>\n
General decline in German exports<\/strong><\/p>\nGerman exports contracted<\/a> unexpectedly in August due to a sharp drop in shipments to the US.<\/p>\nThis development revealed that momentum in the eurozone’s largest economy waned following a robust first half of the year.<\/p>\n
According to data released on Thursday by the Federal Statistical Office, exports fell by 0.8% compared with the previous month.<\/p>\n
The outcome fell short of the 0.6% increase forecast in a Reuters poll.<\/p>\n
Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at ING, said: “Trade is the area where Germany’s resilience is faltering.”<\/p>\n
Brzeski noted that while German exporters benefited in the second quarter from Asian rivals being more heavily affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the third quarter has so far experienced a setback.<\/p>\n
Volker Treier, head of foreign trade at the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), said: “The current decline shows that the recovery in exports is merely a light breeze.”<\/p>\n
Imports rose by 0.9% on a calendar- and seasonally adjusted basis compared with July.<\/p>\n
Consequently, Germany’s trade surplus narrowed from 21.6 billion euros in July to 19.5 billion euros in August.<\/p>\n
Despite rising prices caused by the Iran crisis and uncertainty triggered by US tariffs, the German economy demonstrated resilience in the first half of the year.<\/p>\n
Germany grew by 0.4% in the first quarter and by 0.3% in the second quarter.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Central and Eastern Europe is becoming increasingly vital for the German export sector amid declining shipments to China and the US. While German exports to the world’s two largest economies have dropped significantly in recent times, rising exports to Central and Eastern Europe have more than offset these losses. Trade with the Visegrad Group countries […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16908,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[7742,2710,22455,3243,11694,529,2469,22456,3915,22454,543,503,778,539,2374,5487,2360,8947,821,22453,2709],"class_list":["post-16907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","tag-automotive-industry","tag-bmw","tag-cathrina-claas-muller","tag-catl","tag-central-and-eastern-europe","tag-china","tag-czech-republic","tag-eu-single-market","tag-exports","tag-german-eastern-business-committee","tag-germany","tag-headline","tag-hungary","tag-poland","tag-slovakia","tag-stellantis","tag-tariffs","tag-trade-balance","tag-us","tag-visegrad-group","tag-volkswagen"],"yoast_head":"\n
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