analysis<\/a><\/span> by one of Germany’s most influential foreign policy think tanks, the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the wars in the Middle East, along with the growing risks surrounding transit through the entrance to the Red Sea at Bab el-Mandeb, are currently prompting Gulf states to strongly back alternative route plans to Europe.<\/p>\nOn the one hand, these plans include pipelines designed primarily to bypass the Strait of Hormuz or extend from the Middle East to Mediterranean ports in Syria and T\u00fcrkiye.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, the initiatives involve building transport corridors designed to facilitate the shipment of goods between the Arabian Peninsula and Europe via alternative routes such as Egypt, Syria, or T\u00fcrkiye.<\/p>\n
The author of the analysis, former SWP director and prominent Middle East expert Volker Perthes, argues that these projects should be supported because they would link the Middle East to Europe through infrastructure.<\/p>\n
War-induced disruptions<\/strong><\/p>\nDisruptions caused by war along the maritime routes off the Arabian Peninsula form the backdrop to the latest analysis on major geo-economic projects in the Near and Middle East, published on Monday by the Berlin-based SWP, which is funded by the Federal Chancellery.<\/p>\n
The Strait of Hormuz, through which the vast majority of Arab states’ oil and natural gas exports reached world markets before the Iranian war began, is currently impassable in practice because of blockades imposed by both Iran and the US.<\/p>\n
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, through which much of the trade between Europe and Asia flows, is also currently at risk due to the war between Ansar Allah, Saudi Arabia, and its proxies in Yemen.<\/p>\n
There is currently no sign that these disruptions will end. Furthermore, both straits will remain structurally highly vulnerable in the future, as ships passing through them can very easily be attacked by neighbouring states.<\/p>\n
Pipeline plans to bypass Hormuz<\/strong><\/p>\nAs noted in the SWP’s latest analysis, a series of pipeline projects aimed at offering alternatives for oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz are currently under discussion or even under construction.<\/p>\n
Iraq, for instance, is working to repair and recommission an old pipeline built in the early 1950s but destroyed during the 2003 invasion, which runs from the Kirkuk oilfields to the Syrian port city of Baniyas.<\/p>\n
In addition, a pipeline is planned to run northwards from the oilfields near Basra in southern Iraq.<\/p>\n
This line is also intended to extend as far as Baniyas, or alternatively to Ceyhan.<\/p>\n
Saudi Arabia is considering expanding the East-West Pipeline from its production regions in the east to the Red Sea port city of Yanbu.<\/p>\n
The United Arab Emirates is building a second oil pipeline in Fujairah, situated outside the Persian Gulf and thus beyond the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
However, the SWP points out that pipelines and alternative loading ports remain vulnerable to attacks.<\/p>\n
For that reason, these lines cannot replace the Strait of Hormuz; they can only generate additional options, or in other words, provide “greater redundancy”.<\/p>\n
Special emphasis on IMEC by SWP<\/strong><\/p>\nThe SWP places particular emphasis on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a major project launched in 2023 by India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the EU, three European countries (Germany, France, and Italy), and the US.<\/p>\n
The venture envisages the development of a comprehensive transport corridor spanning sea lanes, roads, railways, and pipelines of all kinds, stretching from India across the Arabian Peninsula to the Mediterranean coast of the Middle East, and from there to Europe.<\/p>\n
The original plan was to extend the corridor to the port of Haifa. The US viewed this not only as an opportunity to establish an alternative to China’s New Silk Road, but also as a means of providing an “infrastructural foundation” for the Abraham Accords, both those already in effect and those pursued by Washington.<\/p>\n
Since the outbreak of the Gaza War, however, including Haifa in the project appears unlikely.<\/p>\n
Discussions are currently focused instead on building or expanding transport routes running from Saudi Arabia through Jordan to the Syrian coast, or across the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt’s Mediterranean ports.<\/p>\n
The SWP concludes that any “network of infrastructure connections” is “more realistic” than a single mega transport corridor.<\/p>\n
Significance of Syria and T\u00fcrkiye for German think tank<\/strong><\/p>\nAs the SWP points out, other major geo-economic projects traverse T\u00fcrkiye.<\/p>\n
For instance, a transport corridor running north from the Al-Faw container port in southern Iraq and intended to reach Europe through T\u00fcrkiye has been in the planning stages since 2024.<\/p>\n
Known as the Iraq Development Road (IDR), the venture is slated to include railway, motorway, energy, and data connections. It is backed not only by Iraq and T\u00fcrkiye, but also by the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which seek to utilize the corridor to diversify their trade with Europe.<\/p>\n
The Iraqi regions through which the corridor will pass remain a subject of dispute. Furthermore, the implementation of the project is thought to depend on the “resolution process” in T\u00fcrkiye.<\/p>\n
Alternative or complementary plans envision another corridor running from the Arabian Peninsula through Jordan and Syria to Europe.<\/p>\n
This likewise encompasses a comprehensive transport corridor featuring railway, highway, and data connections.<\/p>\n
This carries strategic implications: Syria under President Bashar al-Assad, which previously functioned as an east-west transport corridor stretching from Iran to Lebanon, would now be repurposed as a north-south corridor.<\/p>\n
Excluding Iran from ‘corridors’ is core objective<\/strong><\/p>\nAccording to the SWP, the Arab states’ interest in transport corridors will remain high even after the hoped-for conclusion of the war with Iran.<\/p>\n
The Gulf countries’ “mistrust” towards Tehran will persist; moreover, they will not want to “rely” on the US over the long term to provide “naval escorts for oil or natural gas exports”.<\/p>\n
Iran is also not expected to connect to the railway, highway, and data networks in question. Infrastructurally, Tehran is already leaning further towards Central Asia, Russia, and China.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, it is clear that all the transport corridors mentioned lead to Europe and are primarily “aimed” at establishing closer links with the European continent, which represents a major advantage for European countries.<\/p>\n
On the European side, interest in pipeline plans is lower because “demand for fossil fuels is likely to decline”.<\/p>\n
By contrast, railway and motorway networks and data connections are of particular interest for both economic and political reasons.<\/p>\n
According to the SWP, these serve Europe’s geopolitical interests in establishing closer and more resilient connections with the Gulf region and the Indian Ocean.<\/p>\n
In the view of the German think tank, “alternative… transport routes” created by bypassing Iran will in effect become the “geo-economic equivalent of missile defence”.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin recommends paying closer attention to new transport corridors running from Persian Gulf countries to Europe. According to a recent analysis by one of Germany’s most influential foreign policy think tanks, the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the wars in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16944,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[175],"tags":[9889,22504,6457,543,503,15093,288,22505,950,2769,14710,1707,679,10763,9922,531,22391,22506,409,1920,22503],"class_list":["post-16943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-diplomacy","tag-abraham-accords","tag-bab-el-mandeb","tag-energy-infrastructure","tag-germany","tag-headline","tag-imec","tag-iran","tag-iraq-development-road","tag-middle-east","tag-persian-gulf","tag-pipelines","tag-red-sea","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-swp","tag-syria","tag-trade-routes","tag-transport-corridors","tag-turkiye","tag-united-arab-emirates","tag-volker-perthes"],"yoast_head":"\n
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