unconvinced<\/a><\/span> that a shift in Washington’s balance of power would yield a more reliable or friendly America for Europe.<\/p>\nTrump’s repeated questioning of US security commitments, his disputes with European allies over Greenland, and his wavering stance on supporting Ukraine have shaken the bloc’s trust in Washington.<\/p>\n
An EU diplomat speaking to Rapporteur said:<\/p>\n
“What has been destroyed over the past few years cannot be rebuilt overnight, and a Democratic victory will hardly change our situation here. Anti-European sentiment has become quite pronounced in the mindset of the US elite.”<\/p>\n
European capitals have already begun planning for a future in which US military and financial support for Ukraine can no longer be guaranteed.<\/p>\n
National governments have stepped up their contributions to fill the vacuum left by Washington.<\/p>\n
With the EU providing 97.3 billion euros in military assistance to Ukraine, European countries have collectively overtaken the US as the largest providers of allocated aid.<\/p>\n
Total assistance from continental European countries to Ukraine, including humanitarian and financial support, reached 137 billion euros between February 2022 and August 2026.<\/p>\n
According to data tracked by the Kiel Institute, the US provided a total of 115 billion euros in aid over the same period.<\/p>\n
At a leaders’ summit held last month, EU leaders also agreed to cover Ukraine’s additional financing needs of 70 billion euros for next year.<\/p>\n
Trump’s tariff threats and the trade agreement Brussels was ultimately forced to sign have exposed the limits of Europe’s leverage over Washington.<\/p>\n
Another EU diplomat noted that a Republican defeat could fuel mounting discontent within the party over the president’s leadership, potentially prompting the administration to adopt either a more inward-looking posture or pursue further conflict abroad to divert attention from itself.<\/p>\n
According to Brando Benifei, chair of the European Parliament’s Delegation for relations with the United States, the second option represents a “worrying possibility.”<\/p>\n
Benifei noted that the incoming Congress taking office in January could nonetheless become more vocal on matters vital to Europe, including trade, security, NATO, and cooperation on artificial intelligence safety.<\/p>\n
“We always hope there will be greater stability and predictability,” Benifei said, adding:<\/p>\n
“However, we know that if Trump loses control of Congress, he could focus even more heavily on foreign policy.”<\/p>\n
Max Bergmann, director of the Europe Program at the CSIS think tank in Washington, said a sweeping Democratic victory would probably not translate into greater checks on Trump’s authority.<\/p>\n
He noted, however, that it would alter strategic calculations in Brussels, making the EU more willing to stand up to Trump to safeguard its values and interests while pushing further ahead toward greater independence from the US:<\/p>\n
“This makes Europe realize that we are at the beginning of the end of the Trump era, and it probably leads to a stronger determination not to make certain concessions and not to yield as much.”<\/p>\n
In that scenario, the prevailing mindset here would become “we can survive this for another year.”<\/p>\n
Javier Carbonell, a policy analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels, said the practical impact of the midterms on relations with Europe would probably remain limited.<\/p>\n
“On the issues that truly matter, specifically trade and the war in Ukraine, I do not believe there will be a major shift even if the Democrats win the Senate,” Carbonell said.<\/p>\n
Noting that much of this policy agenda is set by the executive branch, Carbonell added that Democrats are unlikely to secure the supermajority required to overcome institutional constraints on major legislation.<\/p>\n
Even so, lessons could emerge for struggling European left-wing parties at a time when Socialist parties from Spain to Denmark are charting divergent paths between a more populist-left platform and more right-leaning policies:<\/p>\n
“What will the character of the Democratic Party look like in the coming years? That remains a major unknown, and I believe that is where the greatest impact will lie. It will significantly shape whom European leaders choose to emulate.”<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brussels harbours no hope that a Democratic victory in the US midterm elections will repair transatlantic relations. Americans head to the polls today (3 November) for elections that will determine control of Congress during the second half of Donald Trump’s presidency. According to Rapporteur, diplomats and officials in the EU capital remain unconvinced that a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17226,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[22902,7546,42,4066,319,990,22901,805,22904,9267,22903,16452,5011,207,2360,5277,822,821],"class_list":["post-17225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","tag-brando-benifei","tag-brussels","tag-congress","tag-csis","tag-donald-trump","tag-european-parliament","tag-european-policy-centre","tag-european-union","tag-javier-carbonell","tag-kiel-institute","tag-max-bergmann","tag-midterms","tag-military-aid","tag-nato","tag-tariffs","tag-transatlantic-relations","tag-ukraine","tag-us"],"yoast_head":"\n
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