NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said a war between Russia and the Alliance is \u201ca real possibility.\u201d In an interview with the Norwegian journalist Anne Lindmo, Stoltenberg told, \u201cI fear that the war in Ukraine will get out of control, and spread into a major war between NATO and Russia,\u201d adding that \u201csuch a scenario could be avoided but that the threat was there\u201d. Russia apparently wants to take advantage of imminent winter conditions. At the same time, it becomes clear that on the eve of marking its first year, the war will go on \u2018as long as the West endure.\u2019<\/p>\n
\u201cWe will see whether spring arrives after the end of winter,\u201d a Presidential Security and Foreign Policy Board Member, Prof. Nur\u015fin G\u00fcney told\u00a0Harici<\/em>, adding that \u2018promises not to enlarge NATO were broken. Following the colorful revolutions and similar processes, we see this messy war. The West made mistakes at the start of the Ukraine War. Russia made mistakes in breaching its commitment to protecting Ukraine\u2019s territorial integrity under the Budapest Memorandum.\u2019<\/p>\n So, do these mistakes evolve into a conflict that could lead to nuclear war? How will Europe\u2019s long winter pass? How should the NATO chief\u2019s \u201cconcerns\u201d be interpreted?<\/p>\n \u201cToo early to end the war\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n To summarize the front-line situation, the Russian army withdrew from certain parts of Donetsk and Kherson. Kerch Bridge was targeted. Russia moved up a gear after the sinking of Moscow, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, and the battleships in Sevastopol were attacked.<\/p>\n Moreover, with the help of its ever-increasing Western-origin weaponry, Ukraine started to attack the inner regions of Russia. In the first week of December, three Russian military air bases hundreds of kilometers away from the Russian-Ukrainian border were hit by Ukraine. Relatedly, US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price was forced to say, \u201cWe have not provided Ukraine with weapons to use inside of Russia. We\u2019ve been very clear that these are defensive supplies. The President has made it clear before. We are not enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders; we are not encouraging Ukraine to strike beyond its borders.\u201d Since October, Russia, on the other hand, has started particularly targeting Ukraine\u2019s civilian infrastructure.<\/p>\n With the coming of the dead of winter, attacks targeting civilian infrastructure may have new consequences on the front. \u201cRussia is trying to subvert Ukraine\u2019s determination and capacity to fight by targeting its vital infrastructures,\u201d Prof. Dr. Nur\u015fin G\u00fcney commented on the Russian tactical shift.<\/p>\n The West\u2019s limit to fulfilling Ukraine\u2019s winter demands<\/strong><\/p>\n Viewing the West in two separate clusters, Europe and the USA, Prof. Dr. Nur\u015fin G\u00fcney made the following observation based on a recent visit to the USA:<\/p>\n \u201cThere is no major disturbance in the USA, and the system works out. The US doesn\u2019t feel like there is a war in Ukraine. Russia is not dependent on the Western market. It can make up for its losses here and has the financial and natural resources necessary to be self-sufficient. More harm will befall the European Union (EU). The general population will be affected. In Europe, there are protests occasionally. There is no indication that the US will change its anti-Russian policy. The United States aims to limit Russia economically and militarily.\u201d<\/p>\n Highlighting how the shale gas revolution helped the USA attain energy self-sufficiency, G\u00fcney emphasizes that the exact opposite scenario is seen for the EU. According to G\u00fcney, claiming that this war has been going on thanks to the support of the West, \u201cthe resilience of Europe and Ukraine\u201d will be crucial to the war\u2019s outcome. G\u00fcney stressed that Moscow has not yet utilized its total capacity in this war while stating that he disagrees with the remarks that depict Russia as a \u201ctotal loser.\u201d<\/p>\n Speaking at the humanitarian aid conference in Paris, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmihal requested the Patriot and other modern air defense systems be provided to his country to increase their capacity to resist and to protect their energy infrastructure. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has asked Europe for six things to help the country get through the winter. On the list are requests to fix energy infrastructure, gas turbines, pistons, and help pay for 2 billion cubic meters of gas. The 6th item is coordinating the \u201cParis mechanism\u201d in response to what Zelensky called \u201cRussian energy terrorism.\u201d Prime Minister Shmihal requested an urgent budget of $1 billion for infrastructure repairs.<\/p>\n How far can Russia withdraw?<\/strong><\/p>\n The dialogue mechanisms between Brussels and Moscow became wholly broken as a result of the Ukraine War. The sabotage of the Northern Current hit a fatal blow to the economic relations that developed on the foundation of energy. The main concern now is whether this tension will expand into a Russia-West War or whether Russia will resort to tactical nuclear weapons as part of its defense doctrine.<\/p>\n In fact, within a \u201cspecial military operation,\u201d Russia had not attacked the civilian infrastructure until recently. However, since the four regions were formally recognized as Russian territory, tensions started to escalate in a different way. According to the Kremlin\u2019s most recent statement, \u201cThe Ukrainian side needs to take into account these realities that have developed over all this time. And these realities say that new subjects (the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia) have appeared in Russia, and they appeared as a result of the referendum that took place there. Without taking into account these new realities, any kind of progress is impossible\u201d In response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky\u2019s withdrawal proposal of the Russian troops from Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said, \u201cThis is out of the question.\u201d<\/p>\n Since Moscow now regards the four Ukrainian regions as Russian territory, its counteroffensive responses to attacks targeting these regions are changing. Given the crossing of these new red lines by the Ukrainian forces, the strikes reaching into Russia, and \u201cno way of being defeated for Russia as a great power\u201d coalesced, the question of whether tactical nuclear weapons will be used began to be asked more frequently.<\/p>\n Regarding Russia\u2019s limits of \u201cwithdrawal\u201d as a significant nuclear power, Prof. G\u00fcney commented, \u201cShould loses one party at one point, it can use tactical nuclear weapons. It is not \u2018not likely\u2019 to use them. In an effort to avoid losing, these tactical nuclear powers are very possibly to resort. Ultimately realizing that everything was lost, Russia will likely turn to tactical nuclear power\u201d.<\/p>\n Pointing out Russia\u2019s \u201cability to challenge the status quo,\u201d G\u00fcney added that the war has not yet ended, and NATO and Russia do not currently have any intentions to start a new war at this stage. However, as of early December, Russian leader Vladimir Putin\u2019s warnings of a growing risk of a nuclear war threat have sparked discussions over this subject. At the Russian Human Rights Council meeting, Putin said, \u201cIf it does not use them first, then it will not be the second to use them either, because in the case of a nuclear strike on our territory, our capabilities will be significantly limited.\u201d Following these words, an interesting analysis came from Israel.<\/p>\n Jerusalem Post analysis: Ukraine should not be given nuclear weapons<\/p>\n The article by national security analyst Ehud Eilam also served in the Israeli army for a while, is entitled \u201cCountries shouldn\u2019t give Ukraine any nuclear weapons.\u201d Having published six books in security studies, Ehud Eliam explains why Ukraine should not be given tactical nuclear weapons by the US, the UK, or another NATO member. According to the Israeli security analyst, it might deter Russia from becoming more aggressive in Ukraine, let alone using nuclear weapons there, but this is extremely dangerous.<\/p>\n In the analysis examining extreme scenarios, it is stated that \u201cUkraine is quite a new state with a fragile democracy, NATO might not fully understand the Ukrainian decision-making process, and it is not clear how much Zelensky can control the military in regard to nuclear weapons.\u201d Additionally, it is mentioned that the \u201cfrustration\u201d in Ukraine might coerce NATO to join the fight by using nuclear weapons against Russia. According to military analyst Ehud Eilam, \u201cThe odds of a Russian attack on a NATO member would increase if NATO gives Ukraine nuclear weapons.\u201d<\/p>\n In conclusion, the author warns that giving Ukraine tactical nuclear weapons without endangering NATO will foster a situation where these weapons can spread quickly. If such a step is taken, he writes, many NATO members like Poland might demand to have their own nuclear weapons due to \u201cfear of Russia,\u201d as well as the Arab Gulf States against Iran.<\/p>\n Turkey\u2019s apparent balance policy<\/strong><\/p>\n Turkey is trying to weather the storm at the helm of a \u201cbalance\u201d ship. In a letter, EU High Representative Josep Borrell said, \u201cTurkey\u2019s policy of not joining the EU\u2019s restrictive measures against Russia is a cause for great concern,\u201d adding, \u201cWe expect all candidate countries, including Turkey, to comply with the agreed measures against Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n G\u00fcney responds to the query of what Turkey\u2019s limit of balance or there is really a limit is as follows:<\/p>\n \u201cTurkey does not believe in sanctions, and so far, no results have been achieved with sanctions. How long have sanctions been imposed on Iran? They are now getting close to producing their own nuclear weapons. In addition, we face sanctions from our ally. Moreover, Israel and the EU also have very close ties. Israel also does not impose sanctions on Russia. Why does Israel not receive inquiries aimed at Turkey? Also, we are not an EU member. We are a candidate member. Such legal liability does not apply to us.\u201d<\/p>\n Provided a step on \u201cwritten security guarantees\u201d that Russia initially raised, it is likely to sit at a negotiation table. However, it is next to impossible that Russia will send its troops on a Christmas leave, as Kyiv demands, given that Russia is at its strongest in the months of the \u201cgeneral winter,\u201d its steadfast elder commander.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said a war between Russia and the Alliance is \u201ca real possibility.\u201d In an interview with the Norwegian journalist Anne Lindmo, Stoltenberg told, \u201cI fear that the war in Ukraine will get out of control, and spread into a major war between NATO and Russia,\u201d adding that \u201csuch a scenario […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":1921,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[965,544,503,971,207,597,683,972,895,746,821,969,970,973,802],"class_list":["post-1920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-russia","tag-balance-policy","tag-energy-crisis","tag-headline","tag-moscow","tag-nato","tag-nuclear-weapon","tag-russia","tag-russian-army","tag-turkey","tag-ukraine-war","tag-us","tag-west","tag-winter","tag-withdrawal","tag-zelensky"],"yoast_head":"\n