{"id":2090,"date":"2023-01-09T11:47:23","date_gmt":"2023-01-09T08:47:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/?p=2090"},"modified":"2023-01-09T11:47:23","modified_gmt":"2023-01-09T08:47:23","slug":"transition-from-non-state-actors-to-interstate-relations-in-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/transition-from-non-state-actors-to-interstate-relations-in-syria\/","title":{"rendered":"Transition from \u2018non-state actors\u2019 to interstate relations in Syria"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Those who oppose normalization with Syria: The United States, the Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is active in Idlib and Aleppo outskirts and which Turkey considers a terrorist organization, some groups within the Free Syrian Army (FSA) \u2026<\/p>\n<p>U.S. Department spokesman Ned Price said: \u201cWe do not support countries upgrading their relations or expressing support to rehabilitate the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad.&#8221; But let us note that there have been no loud objections from senior U.S. officials, senators, and European capitals. \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu, who is set to visit the United States on January 18, said, \u201cThe United States did not say \u2018Why do you hold meetings?&#8217; but we understand that they oppose to normalization.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>From the side of Syrian organizations, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the HTS terror coalition, released a four-minute video titled \u2018We will not compromise.\u2019 \u201cTalks between the Syrian regime and its Russian ally with the Turkish side represent a serious deviation from our goals,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The Syrian Democratic Council, which serves as the political framework of the separatist structure in Syria (YPG\/PYD\/SDF), also called on the \u201copposition\u201d to the Ankara-Damascus alliance to unite: \u201cWe call on the forces of revolution and opposition to oppose and destroy the alliance between Turkey and Damascus, to unite against tyranny and those who sell the blood of Syrians for their interests.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Abdullah Gedo of the Syrian Kurdish National Council (ENKS), withing the circle of the Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), said the Syrian opposition would be uncomfortable with taking Ankara-Damascus rapprochement to the political level.<\/p>\n<p>Protests were held in many FSA and HTS-controlled settlements in the north of Syria under oath of allegiance to the so-called \u2018Syrian revolution.\u2019<\/p>\n<p><strong>The remaining \u201cSyrian opposition\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu met with the President of the Syrian National Coalition Al-Meslet, the President of the Syrian Negotiation Commission Bader Jamous and the Prime Minister of the Syrian Interim Government Abdurrahman Mustafa. \u201cWe reiterated our support for the Syrian opposition and the Syrian people in line with the U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>It is possible to infer some sort of uneasiness from Salem Al-Meslet\u2019s statement, \u201cTurkey is a strong ally of the Syrian revolution and opposition forces. I expect Turkey will remain so in all international decisions on the Syrian issue, especially the Geneva Resolutions 2118 and 2254.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Resolution 2254 calls for the formation of a \u201cunity government\u201d to be followed by elections. Damascus, however, is not willing to give administration space to opposition groups that are no longer able to seize the state with their armed forces.<\/p>\n<p>Although adjectives such as \u2018Prime Minister of the Interim Government\u2019 are used, this political fiction has no practical equivalent in Syria. Although it seems to be one of Ankara&#8217;s main priorities for these groups to find a place in a possible Syrian peace, apparently this is not a realistic approach and that these structures are a \u2018trump card\u2019 to be discarded at a certain stage of the negotiations.<\/p>\n<p>It became clear in last autumn&#8217;s SNA-HTS clashes that efforts to bring countless undisciplined groups together and turn the FSA into the \u2018Syrian National Army\u2019 (SNA) were also in vain. Already after 2016, the role of the FSA was shaped in line with Ankara&#8217;s policy change, from overthrowing Assad to quickly fighting the PKK&#8217;s Syrian extension.<\/p>\n<p>Why should Damascus share its authority with a structure that will be overthrown as soon as the TAF withdraws its support? It is clearly possible to interpret Syria&#8217;s demand for &#8220;TAF&#8217;s withdrawal from Syria&#8221; as \u201cTAF is supporting the parallel armed force that wants to be a partner in my authority. I don&#8217;t want to share my sovereignty.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>What is Syria\u2019s FSA plan?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A source from Damascus, who is in contact with the Syrian security bureaucracy, said that Syria raised the following demands on the FSA during the talks: \u201cWe have a clear path in the talks, we have some conditions. There are certain groups. These are no different from ISIS. We want Turkey to declare them a terrorist organization. And that won&#8217;t be easy.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The source continued: \u201cTurkey is not willing to make concessions from the FSA in the negotiations. Turkey is officially calling for joint action against the YPG. Damascus has no objection to this. However, Turkey also needs to take steps on certain issues.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A report on the Middle East Eye website, based on Turkish officials, claimed that Turkey did not accept the request from Damascus to \u201cdeclare some groups a terrorist organization.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A source from Syria, who informed <em>Harici<\/em>, said that Damascus has plans for the future of the various armed groups that have rebelled against FSA and the administration, and quoted the following notes:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOne: According to Damascus, a large section of the FSA can benefit from the amnesty laws.<\/p>\n<p>Two: Damascus does not expect the extradition to Syria of criminals who run criminal networks and are involved in illegal activities.<\/p>\n<p>Three: FSA militants can join the 5th Corps, which was established with Russia&#8217;s guarantee of security in reconciliation negotiations with the opposition.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Expectations from the Arab world<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Stating that \u201cthe atmosphere of optimism prevails in Damascus\u201d regarding the negotiation process, the source added that Syria is \u201cbalancing\u201d relations with Iran and \u201ccounting days\u201d to open up to the Arab world.<\/p>\n<p>Noting that the reports of \u201ccleaning the army\u201d published in the Turkish press regarding the recent appointments in the Syrian army do not reflect the truth, the source said that these appointments are a routine process that is carried out every six months.<\/p>\n<p>Damascus continues its \u2018normalization\u2019 tours not only with Turkey but also with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed met with Syrian Leader Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Traffic is also heavy on the Syria-Saudi Arabia lane. It can be said that he wants to feel the support of the Arab world behind Damascus in normalization with Turkey.<\/p>\n<p>The United States is doing everything to slow down the flow of the river&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>In addition to the Caesar Act sanctions, Washington&#8217;s main goal, which aggravated the sanctions on Syria with the Captagon Act, is to Iraqize the Syrian state structure. It is possible to summarize what the U.S. understands by the \u2018political solution in Syria\u2019 as an autonomy in which the PYD can find a legal sphere of existence or as options for the federation where local governments are strong. It seems unlikely that Ankara will approve this plan under any circumstances.<\/p>\n<p>The dismantling of Iran&#8217;s land logistics system from Iraqi territory to the east of the Euphrates and from there to Lebanon is also among the priorities of the United States and Israel. In other words, we can say that for a possible normalization, Iran will be tried to be removed from Syria and Washington will continue to tighten the sanctions until it includes autonomy.<\/p>\n<p>Now, Astana partner Iran has not been involved in Ankara-Damascus meeting yet. For Tehran, which frequently give advises through official dialogues, the east of the Euphrates and the passageways are very important because they are the window to Lebanon. It is also unrealistic for Damascus to approve the proposals by pushing its foul-weather friend Iran completely out of the game. However, Syria does not want to be seen as fully engaged in Iranian politics as a state.<\/p>\n<p>For now, Ankara&#8217;s operation demand has been replaced by dialogue and diplomatic traffic, which all sides are watching closely. As we get closer to the final agreement and the parameters of the possible rapprochement become clear, what lies beneath the objections and reactions will come to the surface. In this context, the year 2023 is decisive for Turkey-Syria relations. With the meeting of foreign ministers in January, the state-to-state dialogue and diplomacy line will be strengthened.<\/p>\n<p>To summarize, 2023 is a candidate year for the transition from non-state actors to interstate relations. The possible resistance of the groups that do not want to lose their wartime \u2018state-like\u2019 status strengthens the possibility of opening a final bloody page in the Syrian book&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Those who oppose normalization with Syria: The United States, the Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is active in Idlib and Aleppo outskirts and which Turkey considers a terrorist organization, some groups within the Free Syrian Army (FSA) \u2026 U.S. Department spokesman Ned Price said: \u201cWe do not support countries upgrading [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":2091,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1050,503,683,531,895,821],"class_list":["post-2090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middleeast","tag-foreign-ministers","tag-headline","tag-russia","tag-syria","tag-turkey","tag-us"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - 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