In the wake of Hamas’ Operation Aqsa Flood, which left Israel deeply shaken, the Netanyahu administration’s relentless bombardment of Gaza, replete with contentious statements and acts potentially classified as war crimes, has failed to make Hamas back down. Hakk\u0131 Uygur, Chief of the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM), has likened Israel’s response to a tantrum. Uygur predicts, “Once the tantrums subside and a substantial toll is exacted in bloodshed, Israel will inevitably find itself at the negotiating table with Hamas, and this time, it will entail genuine negotiations.”<\/p>\n
Uygur, at the helm of IRAM, shared insights on Iran-Hamas relations, Turkey’s stance, and the potential ramifications of the operation in the region.<\/p>\n
-What is Iran’s role in the Aqsa Flood?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Iran undeniably plays a central role in this crisis. Tehran’s official stance of denial is motivated by legal and political considerations. The Palestinian cause, in general, and collaboration with Hamas, in particular, have deep historical roots. While the extent of Iran or Hezbollah’s involvement in the operational details remains concealed due to the clandestine nature of the operation, it’s crucial to distinguish between the planning, techniques, weaponry, rhetoric, and other facets.<\/p>\n -Given Israel’s shock and the magnitude of its response, how do you assess the likelihood of the war spreading to Lebanon and Syria?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n The extension of this conflict to Lebanon and Syria would not be advantageous for Israel, and it could have dire consequences for the United States. That’s why we’ve seen warnings from the U.S. advising against expanding the conflict: “You can target Gaza, but avoid spreading the turmoil.”<\/p>\n -Netanyahu said, “We will change the Middle East.” What do you think he means?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Netanyahu is acutely aware that this operation could potentially end his political career, and he is determined not to be remembered as the leader who presided over one of Israel’s most disastrous defeats. Therefore, it is more critical to scrutinize his actions rather than his rhetoric. Expecting him to boast about avenging Israel through the deaths of thousands of Palestinian civilians is unlikely.<\/p>\n -What will this Hamas operation change in the region?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n The perception of Israel as an infallible security and intelligence deity has been shattered. The arrogance that dismissed the need to take Oslo or the UNSC seriously has crumbled. When the time comes to reckon with the devastation and tantrums, Israel will be compelled to engage in substantive negotiations with Hamas. The era of token gestures or superficial concessions is irrevocably over.<\/p>\n -“Regional actors need to review their planning. YPG will be one of the first victims.” Could you elaborate on this?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n With the conflict’s scale expanding, state actors will assume more prominent roles. While the YPG has, at times, been associated with ISIS, it was initially conceived as a tool for Israel’s security, tasked with blocking routes, controlling vital resources, and combatting threats when necessary. However, it has now lost its strategic significance for Israel.<\/p>\n -Ankara is pursuing a neutral policy in the war, trying to be a mediator. How do you evaluate this policy of Turkey? What does this policy gain or lose for Ankara?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n It is necessary to act with common sense amidst the chaos, so Ankara’s policies are right. Nevertheless, it is becoming evident that the region is experiencing a seismic shift comparable to 9\/11. Israel’s illusion of self-reliance and its ability to encircle Turkey with the YPG and Greece has evaporated. If the conflict escalates further and involves Hezbollah or other Shiite militias, we may need to involve larger geopolitical players like Russia and China. Consequently, Ankara appears to be assessing all potential scenarios and responses with careful consideration.<\/p>\n No return to the status quo, expert says<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n