{"id":5348,"date":"2024-09-08T13:07:32","date_gmt":"2024-09-08T10:07:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/?p=5348"},"modified":"2024-09-08T13:07:32","modified_gmt":"2024-09-08T10:07:32","slug":"the-current-agenda-focuses-on-establishing-finland-within-nato","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/the-current-agenda-focuses-on-establishing-finland-within-nato\/","title":{"rendered":"‘The current agenda focuses on establishing Finland within NATO’"},"content":{"rendered":"
Dr. <\/span>Matti Pesu<\/span>, f<\/span>ormer<\/span> researcher<\/span> of <\/span>Finland<\/span> Defense <\/span>Ministry answered our questions: “The risk of escalation into a full-<\/span>scale war between NATO and Russia remains low.”<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n

Matti Pesu is a Senior Research Fellow in the Finnish foreign policy, Northern European security, and NATO research programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). From May 2022 to April 2023, he led a research project analyzing Finland\u2019s nascent NATO policy and the country\u2019s evolving role in Euro-Atlantic security.<\/p>\n

He has published extensively on Finnish foreign, security, and defence policy, defence cooperation, Baltic Sea security, and Euro-Atlantic security.<\/p>\n

Dr. Matti Pesu answered journalist Dr. Esra Karahindiba’s questions on Russia-Ukraine war and the position of the Baltic states.<\/p>\n

Strengthening<\/span> NATO’s<\/span> eastern<\/span> flank<\/span> has <\/span>become<\/span> a <\/span>key <\/span>agenda<\/span> item<\/span> for<\/span> the<\/span> Alliance<\/span>, <\/span>especially<\/span> after<\/span> Russia’s <\/span>military<\/span> intervention<\/span> in <\/span>Ukraine<\/span>. <\/span>Finally<\/span>, <\/span>the<\/span> US <\/span>decision <\/span>to<\/span> deploy<\/span> hypersonic<\/span> missiles<\/span> in Germany on a <\/span>long-term <\/span>basis<\/span> has <\/span>provoked<\/span> retaliation<\/span> from<\/span> Moscow<\/span>. <\/span>What<\/span> do <\/span>you <\/span>think<\/span> about<\/span> the<\/span> latest<\/span> risks<\/span> of <\/span>escalation<\/span>?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The risk of escalation into a full-<\/span>scale war between NATO and Russia remains low, as neither party desires military conflict. The US decision to deploy a new weapon system is a measured response to Russia’s previous deployment of medium-range missiles in violation of the <\/span>Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty<\/span>, bolstering deterrence and reassuring allies about the U.S. commitment to their security. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As is <\/span>well<\/span> known<\/span>, <\/span>the<\/span> danger<\/span> for<\/span> NATO is <\/span>that<\/span> the <\/span>destabilisation<\/span> of <\/span>the<\/span> Suwalki<\/span> corridor<\/span> could<\/span> cut<\/span> off<\/span> all<\/span> the<\/span>Baltic<\/span> states<\/span> from<\/span> Poland, <\/span>which<\/span> is <\/span>NATO’s<\/span> only<\/span> route<\/span> to<\/span>Lithuania<\/span>, <\/span>Latvia<\/span> and<\/span> Estonia<\/span>. <\/span>What<\/span> is <\/span>your<\/span> comment<\/span> on <\/span>the<\/span> allegations<\/span> that<\/span> Moscow<\/span> will<\/span> invade<\/span> Estonia<\/span>, <\/span>Latvia<\/span>, <\/span>Lithuania or Poland<\/span> from<\/span> Ukraine<\/span>? <\/span>Indeed<\/span>, <\/span>no<\/span> serious <\/span>comments<\/span> about<\/span> it <\/span>from<\/span> Putin <\/span>or<\/span> his <\/span>cabinet<\/span>.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Russia<\/span> has in <\/span>fact<\/span> avoided<\/span> actions<\/span> that<\/span> would<\/span> significantly <\/span>increase<\/span> the<\/span> risk of a <\/span>direct<\/span> military<\/span> conflict<\/span> with<\/span> NATO. <\/span>However<\/span>, <\/span>should<\/span> Ukraine<\/span> collapse<\/span>, it <\/span>could<\/span> serve<\/span> as a <\/span>potential<\/span> springboard<\/span> for<\/span> Russian <\/span>aggression<\/span> against <\/span>neighboring<\/span> NATO <\/span>allies<\/span>. <\/span>This<\/span> scenario<\/span> would<\/span> deteriorate <\/span>regional<\/span> security<\/span>, <\/span>which<\/span> is <\/span>one<\/span> of <\/span>the<\/span> reasons<\/span> why<\/span> the<\/span> Baltic <\/span>states<\/span> and<\/span> Poland <\/span>are<\/span> such<\/span> strong<\/span> supporters<\/span> of <\/span>Ukraine<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In<\/span> recent<\/span> months<\/span>, <\/span>Russia<\/span> has <\/span>stepped<\/span> up<\/span> military <\/span>cooperation<\/span> with<\/span> Belarus<\/span> and<\/span> started<\/span> joint<\/span> nuclear <\/span>exercises<\/span>. How <\/span>realistic<\/span> are<\/span> the<\/span> risks<\/span> of a “<\/span>nuclear<\/span> war<\/span>” in <\/span>this<\/span> context<\/span>?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The<\/span> risk of <\/span>nuclear<\/span> war<\/span> remains<\/span> very<\/span> low<\/span>. <\/span>However<\/span>, <\/span>Russia’s <\/span>nuclear<\/span> cooperation<\/span> with<\/span> Belarus<\/span> is <\/span>part<\/span> of <\/span>its<\/span> strategy<\/span> to <\/span>intimidate<\/span> and<\/span> dissuade<\/span> Ukraine\u2019s<\/span> Western <\/span>supporters<\/span> from <\/span>providing<\/span> more<\/span> robust<\/span> military<\/span> assistance<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Finland<\/span> has <\/span>given<\/span> up<\/span> its<\/span> long<\/span> term<\/span> non-aligned<\/span> position<\/span> by <\/span>joining<\/span> NATO. Do <\/span>you<\/span> think<\/span> this<\/span> will<\/span> deter<\/span> Russia<\/span> from <\/span>any<\/span> actions<\/span> against<\/span> Finland<\/span> given<\/span> the<\/span> fact<\/span> that<\/span> experts <\/span>discuss<\/span> NATO <\/span>will<\/span> not <\/span>sacrifice<\/span> the<\/span> rest of Western Europe <\/span>for<\/span> small<\/span> Baltic<\/span> countries<\/span>?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Throughout<\/span> the<\/span> history<\/span> of NATO, <\/span>experts<\/span> and<\/span> policymakers <\/span>have<\/span> debated<\/span> the<\/span> reliability<\/span> of US <\/span>and<\/span> allied<\/span> security <\/span>guarantees<\/span>, <\/span>which<\/span> is an <\/span>inherent<\/span> aspect<\/span> of “<\/span>extended <\/span>deterrence<\/span>.” <\/span>Despite<\/span> these<\/span> discussions<\/span>, <\/span>the<\/span> US <\/span>and<\/span> other<\/span>NATO <\/span>allies<\/span> are<\/span> consistently<\/span> demonstrating<\/span> their<\/span> commitment <\/span>to<\/span> collective<\/span> defense<\/span>. <\/span>They<\/span> regularly<\/span> conduct<\/span> exercises<\/span> in <\/span>Finland<\/span>, <\/span>develop<\/span> executable<\/span> operational<\/span> plans<\/span> to<\/span> defend<\/span> the <\/span>country<\/span>, <\/span>and<\/span> signal<\/span> their<\/span> willingness<\/span> to<\/span> pre-<\/span>position<\/span> military <\/span>equipment<\/span> on <\/span>Finnish<\/span> soil<\/span>. <\/span>These<\/span> actions<\/span> strongly<\/span> indicate<\/span> the <\/span>allies<\/span>‘ <\/span>dedication<\/span> to<\/span> mutual<\/span> defense<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hungarian<\/span> Foreign<\/span> Minister<\/span> P\u00e9ter<\/span> Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3<\/span> has <\/span>accused <\/span>the<\/span> Baltic<\/span> countries<\/span> of <\/span>launching<\/span> a “<\/span>campaign<\/span> of <\/span>lies<\/span>” <\/span>against<\/span> Hungary<\/span>. He <\/span>emphasized<\/span> that<\/span> the<\/span> decision <\/span>regarding<\/span> security<\/span> checks<\/span> does<\/span> not <\/span>compromise<\/span> Hungary’s <\/span>stringent<\/span> security<\/span> measures<\/span>. <\/span>To<\/span> address<\/span> these<\/span> allegations<\/span>, <\/span>State<\/span> Secretary<\/span> for<\/span> Security <\/span>Policy<\/span> P\u00e9ter<\/span> Szt\u00e1ray<\/span> provided <\/span>firsthand<\/span> information<\/span> to<\/span> the<\/span> embassies<\/span> of <\/span>Estonia<\/span>, <\/span>Latvia<\/span>, <\/span>and<\/span> Lithuania<\/span>, <\/span>saying<\/span> “<\/span>hoping<\/span> to<\/span> end<\/span> the<\/span> misinformation <\/span>campaign<\/span>“. <\/span>What<\/span> does<\/span> Finland<\/span> think<\/span> about<\/span> Hungary’s <\/span>position<\/span>? How is <\/span>the<\/span> relations<\/span> after<\/span> Hungary’s<\/span> approval<\/span> of NATO <\/span>bid<\/span> of <\/span>Finlands<\/span> membership<\/span> developing<\/span> recently<\/span>?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The<\/span> relationship<\/span> between<\/span> Hungary<\/span> and<\/span> the<\/span> majority<\/span> of <\/span>its<\/span> EU <\/span>and<\/span> NATO <\/span>partners<\/span> has <\/span>recently<\/span> hit <\/span>rock<\/span> bottom<\/span>. <\/span>Also<\/span> Finnish <\/span>politicians<\/span> have<\/span> been<\/span> highly<\/span> critical<\/span> of <\/span>Hungary’s<\/span> recent <\/span>actions<\/span>, <\/span>including<\/span> Prime <\/span>Minister<\/span> Orban\u2019s<\/span> trip<\/span> to<\/span> Moscow<\/span> and <\/span>the<\/span> decision<\/span> to<\/span> grant<\/span> visas<\/span> to<\/span> Russians<\/span>. <\/span>Hungary\u2019s <\/span>obstructionist<\/span> stance<\/span> on <\/span>Finland’s<\/span> and<\/span> particularly<\/span> Sweden\u2019s<\/span>NATO <\/span>membership<\/span> has <\/span>outraged<\/span> many<\/span> Finns<\/span>. <\/span>It<\/span> is <\/span>difficult<\/span> to <\/span>see<\/span> what<\/span> Hungary<\/span> gained<\/span> from<\/span> its<\/span> actions<\/span> apart <\/span>from<\/span> a <\/span>tarnished<\/span> reputation<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

What<\/span> is <\/span>your<\/span> response<\/span> to<\/span> the<\/span> discussions<\/span> assuming<\/span> that<\/span> to <\/span>stay<\/span> in <\/span>dialogue<\/span> with<\/span> Russia<\/span> is a safer <\/span>way<\/span> than<\/span> making<\/span> it an <\/span>enemy<\/span>?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

From<\/span> the<\/span> end<\/span> of <\/span>the<\/span> Second World <\/span>War<\/span> until<\/span> Russia’s<\/span> full-scale<\/span> invasion<\/span> of <\/span>Ukraine<\/span> in <\/span>February<\/span> 2022, <\/span>maintaining <\/span>dialogue<\/span> with<\/span> Moscow<\/span> was<\/span> a <\/span>fundamental<\/span> aspect<\/span> of <\/span>Finnish <\/span>foreign<\/span> policy<\/span>. <\/span>The<\/span> intensity<\/span> of <\/span>this<\/span> dialogue<\/span> varied<\/span> over<\/span> time. <\/span>However<\/span>, <\/span>due<\/span> to<\/span> recent<\/span> Russian <\/span>aggression<\/span>, <\/span>there<\/span> is <\/span>now<\/span> little <\/span>to<\/span> discuss<\/span>, as <\/span>Finnish<\/span> and<\/span> broader<\/span> Western <\/span>views<\/span> on <\/span>the<\/span> war<\/span> in <\/span>Ukraine<\/span> and<\/span> European<\/span> security<\/span> diverge<\/span> significantly<\/span> with<\/span>Moscow\u2019s<\/span> position<\/span>. <\/span>This<\/span> situation<\/span> is a <\/span>direct<\/span> consequence<\/span> of <\/span>Russia’s<\/span> own<\/span> counterproductive<\/span> actions<\/span>. <\/span>For<\/span> a <\/span>frontline<\/span> nation <\/span>like<\/span> Finland<\/span>, it is a <\/span>matter<\/span> of <\/span>existential<\/span> interest<\/span> that<\/span> Russia’s <\/span>aggression<\/span> fails<\/span> and<\/span> that<\/span> the<\/span> West <\/span>remains<\/span> united<\/span> in <\/span>condemning<\/span> such<\/span> actions<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

After<\/span> Finland’s<\/span> participation<\/span> to<\/span> NATO <\/span>mainly<\/span> with<\/span> the <\/span>support<\/span> from<\/span> T\u00fcrkiye, <\/span>what<\/span> has <\/span>changed<\/span> in Helsinki-Ankara <\/span>relations<\/span> up<\/span> to<\/span> now<\/span>?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The<\/span> intensity<\/span> of <\/span>Finnish-Turkish<\/span> diplomacy<\/span> increased <\/span>significantly<\/span> during<\/span> Finland\u2019s<\/span> NATO <\/span>membership<\/span> process<\/span>, <\/span>leading<\/span> to<\/span> the<\/span> formation<\/span> of <\/span>working<\/span> groups<\/span> on <\/span>issues<\/span> such<\/span> as <\/span>terrorism<\/span>. <\/span>However<\/span>, <\/span>to<\/span> my<\/span> knowledge<\/span>, <\/span>these<\/span> working<\/span> groups <\/span>have<\/span> not <\/span>been<\/span> very<\/span> active<\/span> and<\/span> have<\/span> not <\/span>attracted<\/span> significant <\/span>public<\/span> attention<\/span> recently<\/span>. <\/span>Unsurprisingly<\/span>, <\/span>the<\/span> intensity<\/span> of <\/span>the <\/span>bilateral<\/span> relationship<\/span> has <\/span>decreased<\/span>. <\/span>There<\/span> is a <\/span>prevailing <\/span>sentiment<\/span> in <\/span>Finland<\/span> that<\/span> T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s<\/span> instrumentalization<\/span> of <\/span>Finland\u2019s<\/span> and<\/span> Sweden\u2019s<\/span> NATO <\/span>membership<\/span> processes<\/span> for<\/span> its <\/span>own<\/span> purposes<\/span> jeopardized<\/span> the<\/span> national<\/span> security<\/span> of <\/span>both <\/span>countries<\/span>. <\/span>That<\/span> said<\/span>, it is <\/span>also<\/span> recognized<\/span> that<\/span> Finland<\/span> and<\/span>T\u00fcrkiye \u2013 <\/span>both<\/span> having<\/span> significant<\/span> land<\/span> forces<\/span> \u2013 <\/span>may<\/span> share <\/span>considerable<\/span> interests<\/span> within<\/span> the<\/span> alliance<\/span>. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What<\/span> are<\/span> Finland’s<\/span> main <\/span>foreign<\/span> policy<\/span> and<\/span> security <\/span>agenda<\/span> now<\/span>?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The<\/span> current<\/span> agenda<\/span> focuses<\/span> on <\/span>establishing<\/span> Finland<\/span> within <\/span>NATO <\/span>and<\/span> ensuring<\/span> its<\/span> integration<\/span> into<\/span> NATO\u2019s<\/span> planning<\/span>, <\/span>command<\/span> structure<\/span>, <\/span>and<\/span> force<\/span> structure<\/span>. Helsinki is <\/span>also <\/span>intensifying<\/span> its<\/span> relationships<\/span> with<\/span> key<\/span> allies<\/span> such<\/span> as <\/span>the<\/span> US, UK, <\/span>Norway<\/span>, <\/span>and<\/span> Sweden<\/span>. <\/span>Additionally<\/span>, <\/span>supporting<\/span> Ukraine <\/span>remains<\/span> a <\/span>high<\/span> priority<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr. Matti Pesu, former researcher of Finland Defense Ministry answered our questions: “The risk of escalation into a full-scale war between NATO and Russia remains low.” Matti Pesu is a Senior Research Fellow in the Finnish foreign policy, Northern European security, and NATO research programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). From May […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":5351,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[2795,1159,503,683,800,628,822],"class_list":["post-5348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interview","tag-baltic-region","tag-finland","tag-headline","tag-russia","tag-russia-ukraine-war","tag-security","tag-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\n'The current agenda focuses on establishing Finland within NATO' - Harici<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/the-current-agenda-focuses-on-establishing-finland-within-nato\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"'The current agenda focuses on establishing Finland within NATO' - Harici\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dr. Matti Pesu, former researcher of Finland Defense Ministry answered our questions: “The risk of escalation into a full-scale war between NATO and Russia remains low.” Matti Pesu is a Senior Research Fellow in the Finnish foreign policy, Northern European security, and NATO research programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). 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