{"id":7008,"date":"2024-12-31T12:51:51","date_gmt":"2024-12-31T09:51:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/?p=7008"},"modified":"2025-01-15T17:18:06","modified_gmt":"2025-01-15T14:18:06","slug":"the-coming-armistice-preparing-for-a-bigger-one-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/the-coming-armistice-preparing-for-a-bigger-one-2\/","title":{"rendered":"The coming armistice: Preparing for a bigger one &#8211; 2"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-block-id=\"78ea7a12-f7fc-427b-a48c-987173c00de3\">I concluded the first part of this series with the following words:<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"a3574375-d067-46cd-b6bd-03a50ad7ad8a\">\u201cIn the current situation, an armistice along the line of contact seems inevitable.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"iO6Iq22WBu\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/the-coming-ceasefire-preparing-for-a-bigger-one-1\/\">The coming armistice: preparing for a bigger one \u2014 1<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;The coming armistice: preparing for a bigger one \u2014 1&#8221; &#8212; Harici.com.tr\" src=\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/the-coming-ceasefire-preparing-for-a-bigger-one-1\/embed\/#?secret=fna5vlCUX2#?secret=iO6Iq22WBu\" data-secret=\"iO6Iq22WBu\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"ad4515ba-23ba-4014-9f90-fc349e92576a\">The reasoning behind this is straightforward: Ukraine has largely ceased to be an \u2018issue\u2019 because it is losing its potential to be one. It has become increasingly evident that Russia will never permit Kiev to join NATO. Moreover, Ukraine&#8217;s existing military potential has been significantly depleted. Even if the imperialist bloc were to fully mobilize its productive capacity, it would fail to offset these losses.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"d38e6eb9-6ea6-4a6a-ac51-1cbbf20bdbec\">On 17 December, Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov revealed that the Kiev regime had received over $350 billion in \u2018aid\u2019 from 30 countries since February 2022, with $170 billion allocated for military purposes. Despite this staggering sum, it is no longer sufficient to sustain the fight\u2014let alone secure a victory against Russia.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"c1684d4a-05a0-475f-a7af-e85f333bba8b\">This reality is universally acknowledged\u2014which is precisely why time is needed for preparation.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"a3f8d451-ba28-40a6-acf5-ebd0563513d7\"><strong>\u2018Preparation\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"56f04103-26f7-41de-9c93-412a2cde1296\">But preparation for what?<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"8602d105-46d9-48b2-924e-7dc6fddd1738\">On 13 December, Rutte stated that \u201cthere is now neither war nor peace between Russia and the West,\u201d adding that \u201cRussia is preparing for a protracted confrontation with Ukraine and the West.\u201d The implication is that the West is preparing for war with Russia.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"86ad5baa-dc93-40f1-9515-d2178c28a7e4\">This preparation is no longer concealed at any level. On 25 November, Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO\u2019s Military Committee, revealed that NATO was discussing \u201cpreemptive strikes against high-precision targets\u201d on Russian territory in the event of an armed conflict between Russia and NATO countries. According to Bauer: \u201cThe smart thing is not to wait but to hit launchers in Russia if Russia attacks us. A high-precision combined strike to disable the systems that would be used against us is essential\u2014we must strike first.\u201d Furthermore, Bauer called on the \u201cbusiness community\u201d to prepare for a \u201cwartime scenario\u201d and to adjust production and distribution accordingly: \u201cIf we can ensure the supply of all critical services and goods, this will be an important part of our deterrence.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"945647b8-d7e9-4800-91e4-e029a10e9982\">This signifies a complete capitalist reorganization: not deindustrialization but the militarization of industry in Europe. The fact that this call comes not from neoconservative zealots but from military leaders\u2014who typically adopt a more measured approach, primarily because they understand the realities of war\u2014makes it all the more significant. This is not a new plan, nor is it tied to the events of 24 February 2022. The project was already in place as early as September 2021, as the US\u2019s so-called \u201cReichsf\u00fchrer\u201d in Europe, the \u201cbaroness\u201d at the helm of the European Commission, openly stated at the 2023 Munich Conference. However, due to their mediocrity, incompetence, and unpredictability, they failed to execute it effectively. Now, they need time to accelerate this process once again.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"e1bb7f97-9d03-4e69-bada-57a617923c3c\">Trump\u2019s recent announcement that NATO members should increase their military spending to well above 2% of GDP (reportedly suggesting 3.7%, while <em>The New York Times<\/em> mentioned 5% last month), if realized, would benefit not only the U.S. but also the European elite. Such a move would be precisely what is needed to expedite this reorganization.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"3432c723-13fd-4fd3-bd28-ce92f8f39fe2\">If your opponent is preparing for war, so are you. For some time, Russia has avoided the idea of a conventional war with the West in Europe. At least in its statements, it seemed more likely that any potential conflict with NATO would occur in or around Ukraine. Earlier this month, for example, Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated that \u201cthe actions of the U.S. and other NATO members aimed at escalating the Ukrainian crisis\u201d have increased the likelihood of a direct conflict with NATO. On 16 December, Defence Minister Belousov, after speaking for the first time about the necessity to \u201cfulfil various tasks and maintain a military presence in Central Asia, Africa, the Caucasus, and Transnistria,\u201d added: \u201cIn the medium term, we must be fully prepared for any development of the situation, including a possible military confrontation with NATO in Europe within the next decade. The decisions taken at the NATO summit last July are preparation for this. This is also reflected in the doctrinal documents of the U.S. and other NATO countries.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"14ed7119-7bf1-4dfd-b2b6-7af91ba388ea\">It seems that nearly everyone in their right mind views the prospect of a war between NATO and Russia as increasingly likely. The West, because it is provoking such a conflict\u2014because it needs it. Russia, because it lacks the power to prevent it.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"0780d6a4-7895-45d0-b8e3-1c3982d4e101\">Both sides must undergo significant reorganization. The West must fully militarize its economy. Last year, when Kaja Kallas, the EU\u2019s foreign policy chief (effectively its war minister, succeeding the fascist-leaning Borrell), was prime minister of Estonia, she advocated issuing war bonds using Russia\u2019s frozen assets as collateral. In mid-December, the same Kallas stated that although Russia has a legal right to the assets \u201cseized\u201d by the West, it would not regain them until the funds were used to restore the Kiev regime. She added: \u201cI\u2019m not sure there is anything left of them.\u201d Foreign assets, after all, are based on reputation. They do not need to remain in an account to be traded; they only need to be perceived as valuable. Therefore, there is reason to believe that Kallas is not merely indulging in rhetorical excess but is describing the reality of the situation.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"098365cc-90d6-46b1-9f7e-602ab2198499\">As for Russia, its Soviet-era defense complex is so vast and so deeply intertwined with the civilian economy that it does not require reorganization\u2014only improvement and expansion. However, preparing for war demands more than just military readiness. It requires arguments to convince the population of its necessity, individuals capable of defending these arguments, and cadres skilled in executing current tasks. It necessitates reducing income inequality to foster shared values, raising birth rates to ensure societal reproduction and the adequacy of human resources, increasing the output of civilian industry, achieving technological superiority, and maintaining economic independence. This complex process will take time to complete.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"917e8729-787e-4e12-b7ab-3f986f7683fc\">In short, a truce is necessary for all sides\u2014not just because Trump desires it. The question is how this will be achieved and whether it will lead to a lasting peace agreement.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"87665cb3-6dff-447a-91df-562c252dd63c\"><strong>Russia\u2019s position<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"68b996b4-15a7-4388-85b0-42f2f9581059\">There have been two programmatic statements from the Russian side in the past week.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"335204d9-f070-4a21-8d07-d9417ad506a9\">On 25 December, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov clearly outlined the situation with the West: \u201cRegarding the meaning of the negotiations currently taking place in the West and in Ukraine, we are only talking about an armistice\u2014about allowing the Kiev regime, with the help of the West, to once again consolidate its power and make new attempts to fulfil the instructions of its masters to inflict a \u2018strategic defeat\u2019 on Russia. &#8230; We are not satisfied with an armistice; we need reliable, legally binding agreements.\u201d According to Lavrov, these agreements must also address the root causes of the Ukrainian conflict: \u201cCommon security in Europe, the enlargement of NATO, the EU\u2019s recent decision to subordinate itself to NATO, and essentially to eliminate all differences between these organisations\u2014including, of course, the rights of people in certain regions who have expressed their desire to unite with Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"081aabfa-bb36-4703-b2f8-30d8db652558\">The following day, in response to the comment that \u201cWestern experts expect the Ukrainian conflict to end in 2025,\u201d Putin remarked: \u201cYour words are dripping with honey\u201d (a Russian expression meaning to speak sweetly or optimistically). He added, \u201cWe aim to end the conflict.\u201d However, when asked about plans to freeze the conflict in exchange for a guarantee delaying the Kiev regime\u2019s entry into NATO for 10\u201320 years, Putin responded: \u201cI don\u2019t know what is being discussed in the current team of the US president-elect. What I do know is that President Biden proposed this to me in 2021. He suggested postponing Ukraine\u2019s entry into NATO for 10\u201315 years\u2014because Ukraine is not yet \u2018ready.\u2019 And I gave him a reasonable answer: Of course, it\u2019s not ready today, but you\u2019ll prepare it and accept it. &#8230; What\u2019s the difference for us? Whether it\u2019s today, tomorrow, or 10 years later. I don\u2019t know about the statements of the future team of the president-elect, but in this sense, if such a proposal is made, what is the difference between the current leadership and the ideas you just mentioned? There is no difference. I don\u2019t know how the situation will develop from now on or what instructions the president-elect will give to his administration. Let\u2019s see.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"df17949d-df18-4e06-8ee9-bdbc1539f753\">Thus, Russia\u2019s position can be summarized as follows: It seeks a permanent political agreement, not a temporary ceasefire or armistice. However, a permanent agreement does not exclude temporary armistices. The basis for peace can only be Putin\u2019s<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/putinin-konusmasi-ultimatomdan-fazlasi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"> ultimatum from July<\/a><\/span>, and nothing else. Ideally, it should include a new security architecture in Europe (with the EU operating independently of NATO), a resolution to the Transnistrian and perhaps Gagauz issues, and a guarantee that NATO will not expand further. The latter includes not only Ukraine but also Moldova and Georgia.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"7f5fcf86-4a37-4ba8-8aec-a0ae293f4674\"><strong>The Western position<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"8b771a40-c7aa-439a-8469-02b1bf571373\">I have labeled this section \u2018The West,\u2019 but this should not be misunderstood. In August, I wrote in <em>Harici<\/em> <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/ateskes-ve-ruzgara-kapilmis-sivrisinekler-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">as follows<\/a><\/span>: \u201cThe question of a ceasefire should be discussed day and night from Kiev to Washington, from London to Budapest\u2014but not in other European capitals, as they are insignificant, drifting aimlessly like mosquitoes in the wind.\u201d Thus, there are only two meaningful positions in the West: the United States and Britain. Britain aims to extend the war to all its borders and to use Europeans as live ammunition for this purpose. This also appears to be the stance of global finance capital, represented primarily by The City. While this strategy has no chance of ultimate success, that is not its goal; it merely seeks to prolong the conflict for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"c6e41458-72e4-4353-9c20-b55c9d68b6a8\">It has become clear that the U.S. will present a scenario with three alternatives. These have been discussed for some time, but the most precise formulation was published on December 6 in the Italian newspaper <em>Il Fatto Quotidiano<\/em>. The alternatives are as follows:<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"4e98745a-d3c2-4d2a-aec0-d11e71c9a9ec\">1) The partition of Ukraine according to the \u2018German model\u2019 and the incorporation into NATO of the regions under the control of the Kiev regime. 2) The second scenario is \u2018Israel in Europe\u2019: Ukraine would no longer be a NATO member but would continue to receive military \u2018aid.\u2019 3) An international mission composed of peacekeepers from non-NATO countries such as China and India would be established.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"679bd78c-481e-4fec-b8de-a85b02046447\">The first alternative is untenable, not only due to Russia\u2019s position but also because of the U.S. determination under Trump to postpone a major conflict with Russia. The second alternative would amount to a continuation of the Minsk deception, while it is the most favorable formula from the U.S. perspective, Russia cannot accept it.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"602e6b03-8d05-4604-8b46-93b085aac687\">The third alternative appears to be the most viable, but it would only result in a truce. For now, the issue will likely center on the composition of the peacekeeping force. Russia will not accept the participation of NATO countries (with the possible exceptions of Hungary and Slovakia) in such a force. Instead, a contingent could be assembled from the so-called \u2018global south.\u2019<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"73fe5885-5ea9-4f2a-8a4f-8824a8ee84b5\">One reason for Russia\u2019s emphasis on the third alternative may be to avoid undermining Trump\u2019s position, given his potential role in disrupting the current system.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"edf1396a-c4a0-47f9-bbb8-f9c497a4f800\"><strong>The \u2018triple alliance\u2019 in Kiev<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"af2e59a3-0267-4841-bd1b-b6bdf1470160\">In any case, the current leadership in Kiev must be under immense pressure. It can only survive with Britain\u2019s support, and London is actively working to ensure this. Poroshenko\u2019s recent call to avoid elections in the near future \u201cin order not to weaken the state\u201d is a clear indication of this effort. It seems they are attempting to form a formal or informal coalition consisting of a bankrupt and defunct commander-in-chief, a bankrupt and defunct president, and a bankrupt comedian-turned-president.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"8a6c0b35-2bcf-43d5-b492-20e2662d1b58\">The first is a staunch fascist, reckless enough to display Bandera\u2019s portrait behind him when addressing the international press. The second, the so-called \u2018chocolate king,\u2019 has also cultivated \u2018trusted\u2019 relations with Poland. The third owes his position solely to being the weakest among them (<em>ultimus inter pares<\/em>). His remarks on military-political matters suggest he may see himself as a modern-day Napol\u00e9on I, though, setting aside Napol\u00e9on I\u2019s fate, it would be more accurate to describe him as a farcical Napol\u00e9on III.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"477a79ea-a1f8-4473-bbba-270186cddaeb\">This \u2018triple alliance\u2019 is unlikely to materialize, as it is primarily focused on pursuing the first alternative.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"905a6cb4-66db-4b16-9dc1-ebffb3982b7c\"><strong>What will happen?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"34dff2c9-89fd-4610-8ddc-f929c4a4e2b9\">From the very beginning of the conflict, Russia set itself three goals: demilitarization, denazification, and ensuring Ukraine\u2019s non-accession to NATO. All three were agreed upon in the Istanbul pre-agreement, which was subsequently rendered worthless\u2014less than toilet paper\u2014at the behest of the U.S. administration and a single visit by Johnson to Kiev. In July, the \u2018situation on the ground\u2019 was added, accompanied by Putin\u2019s ultimatum, which was declared in front of the Foreign Affairs coliseum.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"9809a9ce-58df-40ae-83c3-e5fc899c59c4\">The Trump administration\u2019s third alternative poses a challenge for Russia, primarily due to the goal of \u2018denazification\u2019 of the regime. By its very nature, this entails the removal of the current leadership in one way or another, preferably through elections. The determination of the \u2018chocolate king,\u2019 the comedian, and the bankrupt \u2018commander-in-chief\u2019 to avoid holding elections is precisely aimed at preventing this outcome.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"b8b28f1d-c5a1-4ba1-8dcb-afdba935f9cc\">So, what will happen? It seems to me that a truce based on the third alternative will be reached by February-March, with elections in Kiev organized in May at the insistence of the U.S.\u2014provided Britain can be overcome as an obstacle. The organization of these elections will be crucial for maintaining the armistice. I doubt Britain\u2019s pressure on the Kiev trio to block the elections will weaken Trump\u2019s resolve. The comedian president in Kiev, who has already been publicly humiliated by Trump Jr. on social media\u2014first by cutting off the dollar flow and then by kicking him out of the frame\u2014is likely well aware of this.<\/p>\n<p data-block-id=\"6331b888-e25e-48b9-a5d8-190e6447888c\">And all of this is to \u2018prepare.\u2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I concluded the first part of this series with the following words: \u201cIn the current situation, an armistice along the line of contact seems inevitable.\u201d The coming armistice: preparing for a bigger one \u2014 1 The reasoning behind this is straightforward: Ukraine has largely ceased to be an \u2018issue\u2019 because it is losing its potential [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":7009,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[319,207,822,1192,444],"class_list":["post-7008","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-donald-trump","tag-nato","tag-ukraine","tag-united-states","tag-vladimir-putin","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The coming armistice: Preparing for a bigger one - 2 - Harici<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/the-coming-armistice-preparing-for-a-bigger-one-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The coming armistice: Preparing for a bigger one - 2 - Harici\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I concluded the first part of this series with the following words: \u201cIn the current situation, an armistice along the line of contact seems inevitable.\u201d The coming armistice: preparing for a bigger one \u2014 1 The reasoning behind this is straightforward: Ukraine has largely ceased to be an \u2018issue\u2019 because it is losing its potential [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/the-coming-armistice-preparing-for-a-bigger-one-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Harici\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/haricitr\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-12-31T09:51:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-01-15T14:18:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/WhatsApp-Image-2024-12-31-at-12.17.18.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"959\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hazal Yal\u0131n\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@haricitr\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@haricitr\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hazal Yal\u0131n\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"12 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/the-coming-armistice-preparing-for-a-bigger-one-2\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/the-coming-armistice-preparing-for-a-bigger-one-2\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Hazal Yal\u0131n\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/harici.com.tr\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/5ffa546bd9bfbd8f5d2a52502fc5903f\"},\"headline\":\"The coming armistice: Preparing for a bigger one &#8211; 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