The German think tank, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), has outlined Berlin’s and Brussels’ expectations regarding Ankara.<\/p>\n
An assessment by Ya\u015far Ayd\u0131n, titled T\u00fcrkiye on the Road to Autocracy<\/em>, looks at the Turkish government’s options from Berlin’s perspective following the arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (\u0130BB) Mayor Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu.<\/p>\n Ayd\u0131n highlights the economic dimension of the Erdo\u011fan administration’s operations against opposition-held municipalities, noting that municipalities run by the CHP (Republican People’s Party) house 62% of the total population, generate 73.4% of the GDP, hold 84.5% of total private savings, and account for 79.6% of T\u00fcrkiye’s total exports.<\/p>\n Ayd\u0131n states, “Furthermore, the average per capita income in CHP-run municipalities exceeds that of AKP-run municipalities.”<\/p>\n The author suggests this situation gives the CHP a strategic advantage in exerting decisive influence over the economic cycle and thereby creating an alternative sphere of power, emphasizing that construction companies previously doing business with the AKP can now also work with CHP municipalities, making them more “self-confident” in their relations with Erdo\u011fan.<\/p>\n The SWP author adds, “This new economic power of the CHP is particularly important as high credit interest rates have been curbing investment and orders in the construction sector for about two years.”<\/p>\n The SWP analysis argues that the economic instability arising from \u0130mamo\u011flu’s arrest has significant costs for the government, pointing to both the depletion of Central Bank reserves and rising interest rates.<\/p>\n Ayd\u0131n argues that T\u00fcrkiye faces three scenarios going forward: 1. Consolidation of autocracy; 2. Dissolution of the People’s Alliance; 3. An agreement on early elections.<\/p>\n Ayd\u0131n suggests the first option would create economic instability in T\u00fcrkiye, arguing that the country needs external resources for economic growth, but the arrest of the largest city’s mayor would create an unfavorable investment climate.<\/p>\n In the second option, he warns that the MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) leaving the People’s Alliance and forming a two-thirds majority with the CHP and DEM Party to dissolve parliament would cause instability. The SWP analyst, pointing out that a CHP-DEM-MHP alliance would be a kind of “motley crew” coalition, does not find this option favorable for Berlin and Brussels either.<\/p>\n According to Ayd\u0131n, the best option for the EU and Germany is an early election by agreement. In this scenario, \u0130mamo\u011flu is released from pre-trial detention, and charges against him are dropped, provided the CHP agrees to the dissolution of parliament and new elections.<\/p>\n According to Ayd\u0131n, this series of events could lead to a more stable political transition process where T\u00fcrkiye establishes a new electoral system and politically repositions itself under a new president and a CHP-led alliance.<\/p>\n Furthermore, an orderly transfer of power accompanied by political and economic stability would offer an opportunity to reset EU-T\u00fcrkiye relations and could strengthen the EU’s geopolitical position.<\/p>\n According to the SWP analyst, there are “regional responsibilities” that the EU and Germany expect T\u00fcrkiye to fulfill, and stability in Ankara is therefore important. These responsibilities are described by SWP as: regulating and countering migration flows; deterring Russia; and helping to stabilize Syria.<\/p>\n According to Ayd\u0131n, while the US has so far voiced little criticism regarding recent developments in T\u00fcrkiye, the reactions from EU institutions and Germany have been relatively measured.<\/p>\n Ayd\u0131n writes: “Two approaches are being debated in Germany: i) avoiding closer security cooperation with the current government, and ii) maintaining relations with the Erdo\u011fan administration through quiet diplomacy that encourages adherence to the rule of law and democratic principles. The second approach is based on the assessment that the EU depends on a stable T\u00fcrkiye, both as an important NATO partner, especially for deterring Russia, and as a buffer to control migration flows to Europe.”<\/p>\n According to Ayd\u0131n, while this assessment is correct, it overlooks an important point: In the current geopolitical situation, T\u00fcrkiye continues to need NATO’s protection to ensure its national security and the EU’s presence as an economic partner and a market for Turkish goods and services to keep its economy on a growth path.<\/p>\n According to SWP, this fact is also highlighted by T\u00fcrkiye’s continued active efforts to play a key role in the European security architecture, and the same applies to the Turkish defense industry: despite technological advancements, Ankara remains dependent on the EU in many areas.<\/p>\n Ayd\u0131n states, “It is unrealistic to completely escape this dependency through cooperation with other states or blocs. Indeed, the sustainable development of T\u00fcrkiye’s defense industry will continue to require close cooperation with EU member states.”<\/p>\n The author concludes: “In this context, Germany and the EU can exert influence on T\u00fcrkiye by setting the following conditions for increased security cooperation, further integration into the European security architecture, and more cooperation in defense: T\u00fcrkiye must return to the rule of law, halt its slide towards full autocracy, and respect human rights.”<\/p>\n Ayd\u0131n writes that Germany can use negotiations on the modernization of the customs union and visa facilitation as leverage against T\u00fcrkiye, pointing out that both issues are of great importance for T\u00fcrkiye, which is trying to improve its domestic investment environment. He notes that the Turkish economy is closely intertwined with the EU economy, and regaining economic dynamism largely depends on deepening these ties.<\/p>\n The SWP analyst’s thesis is as follows: “T\u00fcrkiye and its industrial sector aim for greater integration into European supply chains; however, if the country continues to slide towards autocracy, its chances of benefiting from reshoring will significantly diminish, creating a substantial economic incentive to reconsider the autocratic path. The EU and Germany can raise the prospect of further integration of supply chains while warning the Turkish government against progressing towards autocracy.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The German think tank, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), has outlined Berlin’s and Brussels’ expectations regarding Ankara. An assessment by Ya\u015far Ayd\u0131n, titled T\u00fcrkiye on the Road to Autocracy, looks at the Turkish government’s options from Berlin’s perspective following the arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (\u0130BB) Mayor Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu. Ayd\u0131n highlights […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9504,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[588,9924,3996,7546,9854,9928,3312,8143,187,8522,9923,503,9927,9926,9922,1709,9925,409],"class_list":["post-9503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","tag-ankara","tag-autocracy","tag-berlin","tag-brussels","tag-chp","tag-dem-party","tag-early-elections","tag-ekrem-imamoglu","tag-erdogan","tag-eu-turkiye-relations","tag-german-institute-for-international-and-security-affairs","tag-headline","tag-mhp","tag-peoples-alliance","tag-swp","tag-turkish-economy","tag-turkish-politics","tag-turkiye"],"yoast_head":"\n