2026 Asia outlook: A year of critical elections and high-stakes summits

For Asia, 2025 was a year marked by significant trade disruptions due to US tariffs, conflicts in South and Southeast Asia, changes in government in South Korea and Japan, and China conducting trade negotiations with Trump.

In 2026, Asia faces a year filled with numerous elections, political turbulence, and diplomatic summits. Nikkei Asia has compiled the prominent developments for the region:

JANUARY

Verdict on Abe assassination in Japan

A Japanese district court will announce its verdict regarding the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on January 21. This case brought the activities of the Unification Church, a religious group with strong ties to conservative politicians including Abe, into the spotlight. The 45-year-old murder suspect, Tetsuya Yamagami, and his family suffered financial hardship due to his mother’s substantial donations to this organization.

Myanmar elections

Following the first phase conducted in 102 districts on December 28, the Myanmar junta’s Union Election Commission will hold the second phase of general elections in 100 districts on January 11. The third phase is expected to take place on January 25. The elections are proceeding even though the country remains embroiled in civil war and faces political uncertainty. Regional countries are concerned about suspicious voter lists within a strict party system dominated by military allies.

Vietnam Communist Party congress

Members of the Communist Party of Vietnam will gather in Hanoi from across the country to hold the party’s largest meeting. The gathering will also see the selection of the country’s top leaders for the next five years. The party congress is being held during a critical period in which Vietnam is implementing its most comprehensive reforms in forty years. The new leaders will play a key role in determining whether the country can achieve its ambitious goals, including annual economic growth of at least 10% starting from 2026.

FEBRUARY

Bangladesh elections and referendum

On February 12, Bangladesh will hold its first elections since the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, along with a referendum on a reform package known as the July Charter. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party is seen as the favorite, gaining momentum with the return of its de facto leader, Tarique Rahman, from London. The Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami is expected to take second place. The National Citizens’ Party, founded by students who led the 2024 uprising, is trailing in the polls. Nationalist-Islamist parties are gaining strength in Bangladesh.

Thailand elections

In the general elections to be held on February 8, Thais will vote for 500 members of the lower house. While 400 of the total will be elected from constituencies across the country, the remaining 100 seats will be distributed based on the total number of votes received by each party. The Election Commission will certify all members of parliament over approximately one month before parliament convenes in April to select the new prime minister.

Laos elections

Laotians will head to the polls on February 22 to elect representatives for the National Assembly and Provincial People’s Councils ahead of the ruling Lao People’s Revolutionary Party congress. University of Tokyo professor Toshiro Nishizawa predicts that the leadership transition at the congress will lead to technocrats taking a greater role in steering the economy.

MARCH

Nepal elections

On March 5, Nepal will hold its first parliamentary elections since protesters—dubbed “Gen Z” by the West—toppled the elected government of then-Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli following violent protests that spread nationwide in September, claiming 76 lives. When candidate registration closed at the end of November, over 100 political parties, including the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and Maoist Centre, had announced their candidacies.

China National People’s Congress

China will hold its annual National People’s Congress, where Communist Party leaders will review and approve the country’s economic plan for the next five years. The plan was discussed at the party’s significant fourth plenary session in October and focuses heavily on technological innovation and self-sufficiency as the world’s second-largest economy enters a prolonged superpower rivalry with the US.

APRIL

Potential Trump visit to China

US President Donald Trump stated he plans to visit China in April and potentially launch a series of summit meetings with his rival Xi Jinping that could reshape relations between the two countries. The two leaders finalized a trade truce and reduced tensions regarding tariffs and rare earth elements when they met in South Korea at the end of October, though many issues remain unresolved.

China Auto Show

China’s most important auto show will open in Beijing on April 24, showcasing the latest vehicle technologies. The rapid rise of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers has brought the global industry to a turning point. According to the organizer’s website, the Auto China fair will span 380,000 square meters and host over 1,000 exhibitors.

MAY

Shangri-La Dialogue

The Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s largest defense conference, will be held once again against the backdrop of US-China rivalry. While high-level military officials and security analysts are expected to attend the annual conference, it remains a matter of curiosity whether the defense ministers of the world’s two largest economies will participate.

JUNE

FIFA World Cup

On June 11, the FIFA World Cup will commence with host countries Mexico and South Africa facing off in Mexico City. In the tournament, which is also co-hosted by the US and Canada, Asia-Pacific nations Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Uzbekistan will compete to win the iconic gold trophy, though none are considered favorites. The final match will be played on July 19 in New Jersey.

South Korea local elections

South Koreans will elect mayors and other municipal administrators nationwide in local elections traditionally viewed as a report card for the ruling party’s first term. The elections will occur as President Lee Jae Myung completes his first year in office. The most watched seat will be the mayoralty of Seoul, where one-fifth of the population resides. Fundamental issues such as housing and job creation appear set to dominate the pre-election debate agenda.

“Summer Davos” in Dalian

The World Economic Forum will hold its annual summer meeting from June 23–25 in the northeastern Chinese city of Dalian. The conference will bring together academics, politicians, executives, and others to discuss current global issues.

JULY

NATO Summit in Ankara

Following the historic NATO summit held in The Hague in 2025, where allies pledged to dedicate 5% of their gross domestic product to defense by 2035, the transatlantic defense pact is holding its annual meeting in Ankara, strategically located near Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Caucasus. This marks the second time Turkey has hosted the summit, following the meeting in 2004.

AUGUST

Start of New J. League calendar

After 32 seasons, Japan remains set to change its football J. League calendar to an European-style autumn-spring season. To ensure a smooth transition, a mini-league will be held between February and May before the August–May season begins. The goal is to better align the calendar with global transfer windows to increase player values, reduce the number of matches played during the country’s grueling summer months, and synchronize better with continental competitions.

SEPTEMBER

Semicon Taiwan

One of the year’s most important technology and chip industry events begins on September 2 in Taipei. Last year’s event broke records with over 100,000 visitors and more than 1,000 exhibitors. Semicon regularly attracts the industry’s biggest names, and executives from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Nvidia, and Infineon have featured as speakers in the past.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit

The China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization will hold its annual summit in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. This meeting of the group, which includes other Central Asian countries as well as Russia, India, Pakistan, and Iran, is expected to focus on security.

OCTOBER

International Maritime Organization net zero discussions

The International Maritime Organization’s Net Zero Framework was not adopted at the October 2025 meeting due to joint opposition from the US, despite being tentatively accepted by IMO members earlier in the year. Instead, it was decided to postpone the vote on the framework, which consists of a global fuel standard and a pricing mechanism for maritime transport emissions, by one year. The sector accounts for approximately 2% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

NOVEMBER

ASEAN Summit in the Philippines

Ambassadors and leaders will gather in the Philippines for the ASEAN Summit, one of the most important summits for Asia. All eyes are on Manila as the group’s new chair. Manila’s tenure will determine the bloc’s resilience in the face of deepening geopolitical fractures and economic challenges.

APEC meeting, Shenzhen

China will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19. By setting the meeting’s theme as “Building an Asia-Pacific Community for Shared Prosperity,” China is displaying a stance contrary to the escalating tensions with the US, Japan, Taiwan, and other countries.

UN Climate Conference, Türkiye

The United Nations’ annual climate talks will be held in the Turkish city of Antalya, but Australia will chair the negotiations following a compromise on hosting duties between Ankara and Canberra. After the 2025 conference in Brazil failed to reach an agreement on a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels due to opposition from oil-producing nations, the focus will be on whether progress can be made this time. The issue of trade, which India and China helped turn into a climate problem in Brazil, will again be on the agenda.

Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos exit least developed country status

Five years after the United Nations decision, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos are preparing to exit Least Developed Country status on November 24. This will be a turning point in the economic development of these countries. However, exiting this category means the loss of certain advantages, including trade privileges, and there have even been debates in Bangladesh about whether to delay exiting this status. Dhaka is currently attempting to sign trade agreements to make the transition smooth.

Taiwan local elections

Voters in Taiwan will cast ballots for mayors, city council members, and other officials on November 28. As Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party battles the main opposition Kuomintang and its new leader Cheng Li-wun, the local elections will be a closely watched indicator of general political momentum.

DECEMBER

New Zealand elections

New Zealand will hold elections following the dissolution of the current parliament or the expiration of its term, with the deadline for voting set for December 19. The National Party, the dominant member of the ruling coalition, and the opposition Labour Party, which suffered a defeat in the previous elections in 2023, are currently running neck and neck in the polls.

G20 Summit

The G20 summit will be held over two days starting December 14 at Trump’s golf resort in Miami. The leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will also attend this event, which will form a significant diplomatic platform for Asia’s major powers—China, India, and Japan—upon the invitation of the US president.