Asia
2026 Asia outlook: A year of critical elections and high-stakes summits
For Asia, 2025 was a year marked by significant trade disruptions due to US tariffs, conflicts in South and Southeast Asia, changes in government in South Korea and Japan, and China conducting trade negotiations with Trump.
In 2026, Asia faces a year filled with numerous elections, political turbulence, and diplomatic summits. Nikkei Asia has compiled the prominent developments for the region:
JANUARY
Verdict on Abe assassination in Japan
A Japanese district court will announce its verdict regarding the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on January 21. This case brought the activities of the Unification Church, a religious group with strong ties to conservative politicians including Abe, into the spotlight. The 45-year-old murder suspect, Tetsuya Yamagami, and his family suffered financial hardship due to his mother’s substantial donations to this organization.
Myanmar elections
Following the first phase conducted in 102 districts on December 28, the Myanmar junta’s Union Election Commission will hold the second phase of general elections in 100 districts on January 11. The third phase is expected to take place on January 25. The elections are proceeding even though the country remains embroiled in civil war and faces political uncertainty. Regional countries are concerned about suspicious voter lists within a strict party system dominated by military allies.
Vietnam Communist Party congress
Members of the Communist Party of Vietnam will gather in Hanoi from across the country to hold the party’s largest meeting. The gathering will also see the selection of the country’s top leaders for the next five years. The party congress is being held during a critical period in which Vietnam is implementing its most comprehensive reforms in forty years. The new leaders will play a key role in determining whether the country can achieve its ambitious goals, including annual economic growth of at least 10% starting from 2026.
FEBRUARY
Bangladesh elections and referendum
On February 12, Bangladesh will hold its first elections since the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, along with a referendum on a reform package known as the July Charter. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party is seen as the favorite, gaining momentum with the return of its de facto leader, Tarique Rahman, from London. The Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami is expected to take second place. The National Citizens’ Party, founded by students who led the 2024 uprising, is trailing in the polls. Nationalist-Islamist parties are gaining strength in Bangladesh.
Thailand elections
In the general elections to be held on February 8, Thais will vote for 500 members of the lower house. While 400 of the total will be elected from constituencies across the country, the remaining 100 seats will be distributed based on the total number of votes received by each party. The Election Commission will certify all members of parliament over approximately one month before parliament convenes in April to select the new prime minister.
Laos elections
Laotians will head to the polls on February 22 to elect representatives for the National Assembly and Provincial People’s Councils ahead of the ruling Lao People’s Revolutionary Party congress. University of Tokyo professor Toshiro Nishizawa predicts that the leadership transition at the congress will lead to technocrats taking a greater role in steering the economy.
MARCH
Nepal elections
On March 5, Nepal will hold its first parliamentary elections since protesters—dubbed “Gen Z” by the West—toppled the elected government of then-Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli following violent protests that spread nationwide in September, claiming 76 lives. When candidate registration closed at the end of November, over 100 political parties, including the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and Maoist Centre, had announced their candidacies.
China National People’s Congress
China will hold its annual National People’s Congress, where Communist Party leaders will review and approve the country’s economic plan for the next five years. The plan was discussed at the party’s significant fourth plenary session in October and focuses heavily on technological innovation and self-sufficiency as the world’s second-largest economy enters a prolonged superpower rivalry with the US.
APRIL
Potential Trump visit to China
US President Donald Trump stated he plans to visit China in April and potentially launch a series of summit meetings with his rival Xi Jinping that could reshape relations between the two countries. The two leaders finalized a trade truce and reduced tensions regarding tariffs and rare earth elements when they met in South Korea at the end of October, though many issues remain unresolved.
China Auto Show
China’s most important auto show will open in Beijing on April 24, showcasing the latest vehicle technologies. The rapid rise of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers has brought the global industry to a turning point. According to the organizer’s website, the Auto China fair will span 380,000 square meters and host over 1,000 exhibitors.
MAY
Shangri-La Dialogue
The Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s largest defense conference, will be held once again against the backdrop of US-China rivalry. While high-level military officials and security analysts are expected to attend the annual conference, it remains a matter of curiosity whether the defense ministers of the world’s two largest economies will participate.
JUNE
FIFA World Cup
On June 11, the FIFA World Cup will commence with host countries Mexico and South Africa facing off in Mexico City. In the tournament, which is also co-hosted by the US and Canada, Asia-Pacific nations Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Uzbekistan will compete to win the iconic gold trophy, though none are considered favorites. The final match will be played on July 19 in New Jersey.
South Korea local elections
South Koreans will elect mayors and other municipal administrators nationwide in local elections traditionally viewed as a report card for the ruling party’s first term. The elections will occur as President Lee Jae Myung completes his first year in office. The most watched seat will be the mayoralty of Seoul, where one-fifth of the population resides. Fundamental issues such as housing and job creation appear set to dominate the pre-election debate agenda.
“Summer Davos” in Dalian
The World Economic Forum will hold its annual summer meeting from June 23–25 in the northeastern Chinese city of Dalian. The conference will bring together academics, politicians, executives, and others to discuss current global issues.
JULY
NATO Summit in Ankara
Following the historic NATO summit held in The Hague in 2025, where allies pledged to dedicate 5% of their gross domestic product to defense by 2035, the transatlantic defense pact is holding its annual meeting in Ankara, strategically located near Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Caucasus. This marks the second time Turkey has hosted the summit, following the meeting in 2004.
AUGUST
Start of New J. League calendar
After 32 seasons, Japan remains set to change its football J. League calendar to an European-style autumn-spring season. To ensure a smooth transition, a mini-league will be held between February and May before the August–May season begins. The goal is to better align the calendar with global transfer windows to increase player values, reduce the number of matches played during the country’s grueling summer months, and synchronize better with continental competitions.
SEPTEMBER
Semicon Taiwan
One of the year’s most important technology and chip industry events begins on September 2 in Taipei. Last year’s event broke records with over 100,000 visitors and more than 1,000 exhibitors. Semicon regularly attracts the industry’s biggest names, and executives from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Nvidia, and Infineon have featured as speakers in the past.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit
The China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization will hold its annual summit in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. This meeting of the group, which includes other Central Asian countries as well as Russia, India, Pakistan, and Iran, is expected to focus on security.
OCTOBER
International Maritime Organization net zero discussions
The International Maritime Organization’s Net Zero Framework was not adopted at the October 2025 meeting due to joint opposition from the US, despite being tentatively accepted by IMO members earlier in the year. Instead, it was decided to postpone the vote on the framework, which consists of a global fuel standard and a pricing mechanism for maritime transport emissions, by one year. The sector accounts for approximately 2% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.
NOVEMBER
ASEAN Summit in the Philippines
Ambassadors and leaders will gather in the Philippines for the ASEAN Summit, one of the most important summits for Asia. All eyes are on Manila as the group’s new chair. Manila’s tenure will determine the bloc’s resilience in the face of deepening geopolitical fractures and economic challenges.
APEC meeting, Shenzhen
China will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19. By setting the meeting’s theme as “Building an Asia-Pacific Community for Shared Prosperity,” China is displaying a stance contrary to the escalating tensions with the US, Japan, Taiwan, and other countries.
UN Climate Conference, Türkiye
The United Nations’ annual climate talks will be held in the Turkish city of Antalya, but Australia will chair the negotiations following a compromise on hosting duties between Ankara and Canberra. After the 2025 conference in Brazil failed to reach an agreement on a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels due to opposition from oil-producing nations, the focus will be on whether progress can be made this time. The issue of trade, which India and China helped turn into a climate problem in Brazil, will again be on the agenda.
Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos exit least developed country status
Five years after the United Nations decision, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Laos are preparing to exit Least Developed Country status on November 24. This will be a turning point in the economic development of these countries. However, exiting this category means the loss of certain advantages, including trade privileges, and there have even been debates in Bangladesh about whether to delay exiting this status. Dhaka is currently attempting to sign trade agreements to make the transition smooth.
Taiwan local elections
Voters in Taiwan will cast ballots for mayors, city council members, and other officials on November 28. As Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party battles the main opposition Kuomintang and its new leader Cheng Li-wun, the local elections will be a closely watched indicator of general political momentum.
DECEMBER
New Zealand elections
New Zealand will hold elections following the dissolution of the current parliament or the expiration of its term, with the deadline for voting set for December 19. The National Party, the dominant member of the ruling coalition, and the opposition Labour Party, which suffered a defeat in the previous elections in 2023, are currently running neck and neck in the polls.
G20 Summit
The G20 summit will be held over two days starting December 14 at Trump’s golf resort in Miami. The leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will also attend this event, which will form a significant diplomatic platform for Asia’s major powers—China, India, and Japan—upon the invitation of the US president.
The US Department of War (Pentagon) is reportedly planning to establish an extensive network of deep-cover agents to wage economic warfare against China and other adversaries of the US.
According to a report by The Washington Post citing six sources familiar with the initiative, the plan has not yet been put into effect. The newspaper reported that the initiative remains at the planning stage. The Pentagon, however, denies that any such initiative exists.
The report said the operatives would pose as entrepreneurs or private sector employees while concealing their ties to the US government. The network’s mission would be to gather economic intelligence and counter China.
The programme is led by Tom Rakusa, who spent 39 years at the CIA. Rakusa serves as a senior adviser to Deputy Secretary of Defence Steve Feinberg.
The proposed spy network is seen as part of a broader policy by the Donald Trump administration to sharpen economic competition with other countries.
The US is already resorting to tariffs, export controls, and investment in strategic sectors, alongside expanding its economic intelligence gathering.
According to The Washington Post, the new initiative demonstrates the Pentagon’s growing influence under the Trump administration. The department is currently seeking a record budget of $1.5 trillion.
Trade war flares up again with Trump’s return to the White House
The trade friction between the US and China flared up again following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. In April 2025, Washington raised tariffs on Chinese goods to as much as 145%, and Beijing retaliated with tariffs of up to 125%.
In May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described China as the primary geopolitical challenge facing Washington. Rubio said that to avoid war, the two sides needed to manage their conflict of interests.
In July, Chinese expert Zheng Yongnian did not simply warn that underestimating the US could prove to be a “fatal mistake”; he stated it explicitly.
According to Zheng’s assessment, the US maintains its primacy through the role of the dollar, its military superiority, and its technological advantages.
Even so, the two sides agreed in June to declare a truce and lower tariffs. In autumn 2026, the US and China extended their trade truce until 10 January 2027.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the extension would give the parties more time to discuss economic issues.
Trade deals do not eliminate the strategic contradictions between the two countries. Financial Times columnist Rana Foroohar likened the race between the two nations for commercial, technological, and geopolitical influence to the 19th-century “Great Game” between the Russian and British empires.
Foroohar cited China’s standing in shipbuilding and commercial maritime transport, as well as its expanding footprint in overseas ports, among its key advantages.
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) plans to restrict short-term property trading to rein in surging home prices in major urban centres, particularly Tokyo.
Led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the party aims to make support for working households a core priority ahead of local elections scheduled for April next year.
The LDP’s research commission on housing and land policy met on Wednesday to discuss the issue.
According to a report by the Nikkei Asia newspaper, Commission Chair and LDP lawmaker Midori Matsushima said at the opening of the meeting: “Prices of newly built condominiums across Tokyo’s 23 wards have doubled over the past decade. We must work on measures ensuring that people who wish to live in these homes can actually afford to buy them.”
Homeownership in the capital has become virtually unattainable for broad segments of the population. According to data from the Real Estate Economic Institute, the average sale price of a newly built condominium in Tokyo’s 23 wards rose %18.5 in fiscal 2025 compared with the previous year, reaching 137.84 million yen (around $872,000).
Meanwhile, statistics from the Ministry of Labour show that the average annual income of a full-time worker in the capital remained at 6.78 million yen in fiscal 2025. This widening gap between incomes and residential property prices is directly shaping political priorities.
During its campaign for the House of Representatives election in February, the LDP pledged to curb speculative transactions across metropolitan Tokyo and other regions. Earlier this month, a party project team focused on policies concerning foreign nationals also submitted a recommendation urging the government to introduce immediate tax measures against rising home prices.
Under current legislation, profits realized from properties sold within five years of acquisition are classified as “short-term capital gains”. These returns face a tax rate approaching %40, including income tax and local inhabitant tax.
Although this rate is twice the approximately %20 levied as “long-term capital gains” tax on properties held for more than five years, several party members argue it remains insufficient to deter speculation. Calls to tighten the framework may be considered as part of the annual tax reform package to be drafted in December alongside the LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party.
The ruling bloc wants to present concrete housing pledges to voters heading to the polls in April across numerous urban centres, including 22 of Tokyo’s wards where local assembly terms expire.
“We need to support families with children, who are typically at the stage of purchasing a home,” a senior LDP official said.
Opposition parties are also preparing alternative proposals that target not only prospective homebuyers, but also residents forced into the rental market by high property prices and now affected by escalating rents.
Tax steps take precedence over limits on foreign buyers
Several countries seeking answers to housing affordability pressures have imposed direct restrictions on foreign purchasers. In South Korea, real estate policies played a major part in the declining public approval ratings of President Lee Jae Myung.
In August 2025, authorities in Seoul introduced an approval requirement for foreign nationals buying homes in the capital and adjacent areas, while also mandating that buyers reside in the properties for at least two years.
Canada and Australia have enacted temporary bans on foreign residential purchases, while Singapore levies a %60 additional stamp duty on foreign buyers.
The role of overseas investors in Japan’s property market also drew debate during the February election. However, restrictions aimed directly at foreign nationals are viewed as potentially conflicting with international trade and services agreements.
Consequently, rather than imposing restrictions based on the nationality of buyers, the government is discussing tax measures aimed at speculative real estate deals, such as rapid resales.
Fears that sharp market measures could shake regional banks
Concerns have also surfaced that aggressive steps to force down prices could harm the wider national economy.
A senior LDP tax official cautioned that a steep drop in land prices could weaken local financial institutions, warning: “We must consider the impact on regional banks.”
The real estate sector accounts for roughly %18 of total lending by Japanese banks. This proportion sits well above the %10 level recorded during Japan’s bubble economy of the mid-to-late 1980s.
At certain regional banks, property lending accounts for nearly half of total loan portfolios.
According to March 2025 data from the Financial Services Agency, approximately one-quarter of all loans extended by regional banks to the real estate sector are concentrated directly in Tokyo’s five central wards.
Buoyant asset valuations, supported in part by rising stock indices, have underpinned strong public approval for the Takaichi administration. Observers note that property interventions designed to cool the market could drag down equity prices and weaken the government’s standing.
A senior official on the LDP research commission stressed that decision-makers must act with caution regarding the scope and timing of any measures intended to bring price increases under control.
South Korea will spend $120 billion to construct eight nuclear power plants in the US under an agreement that provides for $350 billion in investments in exchange for lower tariffs.
The South Korean government also announced that Seoul and Washington will begin examining a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska comprising a large-scale pipeline to transport natural gas from the north of the state to the south, alongside the construction of an LNG terminal for exports overseas.
Seoul stated that a decision regarding the LNG project will be made following a commercial feasibility study. However, US President Donald Trump said that South Korea would invest $54 billion in the project, pointing to an apparent lack of full coordination between the two sides on the matter.
Trade and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said in a statement: “This announcement opens a new horizon of cooperation where the two countries join forces to develop joint commercial ventures in strategic areas directly linked to economic security and future sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and LNG.”
“We will adhere to the principle of prioritising national interests and investing solely in commercially viable projects,” Kim said.
Speaking at the White House, Trump characterised South Korea’s plans as “one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in American history”.
The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung roughly one year ago at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in South Korea, where they agreed on the creation of a $350 billion investment fund.
Under that agreement, $150 billion was allocated to the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion to other sectors. In return, the US announced it would reduce tariffs imposed on goods imported from South Korea from 25% to 15%.
Under the nuclear power project, South Korea’s state-controlled utility will build two plants in the US, while Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric will construct six plants.
According to the South Korean government, this will mark the first instance in which a foreign country builds its own nuclear power plants in the US.
South Korean firms are also evaluating the possibility of acquiring a stake in Westinghouse as part of negotiations over sharing profits generated by the project.
South Korea additionally announced that it will build a $22.3 billion natural gas-fired power plant in Texas with a capacity of 6,472 megawatts.
The facility will be designed to supply electricity directly to nearby data centres. The project’s first phase is targeted to begin commercial operations in 2029, with full-capacity operations slated for 2032.
Seoul also disclosed that it had agreed to allow the US to receive 50% of the profits generated by the projects until South Korea recoups all of its investments.
After South Korea fully recovers its total investment amount, 90% of the profits will go to the US.
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