Middle East
Saudi Arabia secures control of eastern Yemen as UAE-backed forces withdraw
Saudi Arabia has secured control over eastern Yemen, as forces backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) withdraw from the region. The UAE has lost its first indirect battle against Saudi Arabia in eastern Yemen since the conflict began.
For the first time since its establishment in 2017, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is loyal to Abu Dhabi, has lost its military influence in the provinces of Hadramawt and al-Mahrah.
Council forces were forced to withdraw from all headquarters they controlled in the two provinces due to ground pressure from the Nation’s Shield forces, which are loyal to Riyadh, supported by Saudi warplanes.
Nation’s Shield forces secure control in Mukalla and Seiyun
The clashes, which began last Friday, ended yesterday evening after Nation’s Shield forces established control over Mukalla, the capital of Hadramawt province.
This development occurred one day after the fall of the First Military Region in Seiyun, the center of Wadi Hadramawt.
The fall of Mukalla followed the reclamation of the oil plateau in the Ghayl Bin Yamin district by local tribes. STC forces abandoned the region following heavy clashes that took place before the Nation’s Shield units reached the area.
Southern Transitional Council accepts defeat
The STC, which had attempted a forward move on Friday evening by declaring a “State of South Arabia” with a two-year transition period, has accepted defeat.
The Council bowed to the demand to participate in a “South-South” political dialogue under the auspices of Saudi Arabia.
In a statement published on the Council’s official website, it said: “We welcome the invitation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to sponsor the southern dialogue. This invitation is a practical translation of the approach adopted by the Council since its inception. Dialogue is the only reasonable way to address political issues, foremost among them the cause of the people of the south and their right to reclaim their state.”
Heavy toll in airstrikes: At least 80 dead
Observers characterize this statement as a retreat made under military pressure in Hadramawt and al-Mahrah. While dozens of dead and wounded were reported within the ranks of the STC, Council forces were seen fleeing from various cities in Hadramawt.
Speaking to AFP, a source from the Council reported that the airstrikes led to “the death of at least 80 elements from the Council forces and the wounding of 152 soldiers.” While the fate of hundreds of STC members remains uncertain, reports indicate that approximately 130 people were taken prisoner by the Nation’s Shield forces.
Riyadh-aligned forces take to the streets
Hours after the Riyadh-aligned Hadramawt provincial administration announced it had secured Seiyun, pro-Saudi groups completed their deployment in the city of Mukalla yesterday afternoon.
Local sources speaking to the Al-Akhbar newspaper stated that after securing control of Rayyan Airport and the Dhabba Oil Port, these groups spread through the city streets without direct clashes.
According to the sources, the Hadramout Elite (en-Nuhbe el-Hadramiyye), which served as the STC’s military wing on the Hadramawt coast, completely withdrew from Mukalla.
Many military camps loyal to the UAE surrendered by withdrawing their support for the Council after receiving assurances from Saudi Arabia that personnel would not be harmed and would be integrated into the Nation’s Shield forces.
Supply lines cut: Forces in al-Mahrah under siege
Although STC forces maintain a presence in al-Mahrah province despite withdrawing from the city of al-Ghaydah and rejecting calls for a safe withdrawal from vital institutions like Nishtun Port, the fall of Mukalla and Shihr has placed these forces in a difficult position.
Due to the cutting of military supply lines, these units face the risk of being taken prisoner unless an agreement is reached to provide a safe exit to Shabwah province.
Saudi Arabia’s eastern strategy and new influence sharing
Recent developments have once again brought the project for autonomous administration in Hadramawt—a province that constitutes half of Yemen’s land area—to the agenda.
Political sources informing Al-Akhbar stated that Saudi Arabia is moving to complete the process of reclaiming the eastern region, covering Shabwah, Hadramawt, and al-Mahrah, from UAE-aligned forces. It is reported that the Riyadh administration is also making moves to seize the oil-rich Shabwah province, which is currently under STC control.
The Governor of Hadramawt, Salim al-Hanbashi, returned from Saudi Arabia to the city of Seiyun yesterday to manage the province for the first time in ten years.
A new scenario of four-region division
Sources noted that calls have been made to the Governor of Shabwah, Awadh al-Wazir, a leader in the UAE-aligned General People’s Congress party, to hand over the province.
It is reported that Riyadh is making military preparations in the nearby al-Abr region to establish control in the coming days.
If the clashes in the eastern provinces cease, it is predicted that Saudi Arabia will settle for control in this region, while the southern provinces (Abyan, Aden, Lahij, and Dhale) will remain under STC control.
Observers view this situation as a new sharing of influence in which the Kingdom aims to divide Yemen into four regions: two in the south and two in the north.
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
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