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A new chapter in the ill-fated destiny of the Caucasus: Notes from J.D. Vance’s diplomatic foray into Baku and Yerevan

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The Strategic Partnership Charter, signed between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and United States Vice President J.D. Vance, has elevated the relations between the two states from a mere declaration of intent to the level of a formal, unshakable “covenant.” This document symbolizes not only a rapprochement between the two nations but also the definitive entry of the region into the strategic orbit of the NATO axis. As the American Embassy in Baku has articulated, Washington is acting with a resolute determination to “transform the dormant, gargantuan potential” of the South Caucasus into a lived reality.

The signed charter functions as a foundational instrument, regulating not just the current state of cooperation but its trajectory for decades to come. Among the core pillars of the document is the mutual and unconditional recognition of “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” This constitutes a high-level certification that the era of “frozen conflicts” in the region has reached its conclusion.

Provisions such as the development of transport routes and the establishment of partnerships in strategic sectors signal that the text will not remain a mere paper exercise; rather, it heralds a massive surge in ground-level infrastructure and an onslaught of American capital into the South Caucasus.

A Logistical Revolution: The Middle Corridor and the “Trump Route”

The concrete provisions of the charter focus heavily on regional connectivity. Two monumental projects take center stage here: the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) and the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity).

The Middle Corridor is a commercial artery originating in China and extending through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to Turkey and Europe—completely “bypassing” Russia. According to 2025 data, cargo flow along this route has seen a staggering 62% increase compared to 2024, reaching 4.5 million tons. For Western logistics firms, this path has become a far more profitable and secure alternative to the “Northern Route” passing through Russia. Indeed, the target is for cargo originating in China to reach Europe via this route in a mere 12 days.

The most critical link in this vast network is the 44-kilometer Zangezur Corridor, which will traverse Armenian territory. Following an agreement mediated personally by Donald Trump at the White House on August 8, 2025, the management of this corridor was transferred to the United States for a term of 99 years. This passage, dubbed the “Trump Route,” will connect Nakhchivan with the Azerbaijani mainland, thereby ending the geographical discontinuity of the Turkic republics—or, conversely, resulting in the encirclement of Russia from the south. This derelict line, where tracks had been uprooted since 1991, is now being reconstructed under the control of an American company, with an ownership structure where 30% of profits go to Armenia, 30% to Azerbaijan, and 40% to the American operator.[1]

The Influx of American Capital into the Caucasus

The economic dimension of the charter can be read as something far beyond conventional trade agreements—it is an all-out influx of American capital into Baku. A “digital transformation” is planned with the direct participation of both public and private sector capital from both nations. While cooperation is envisioned in high-tech fields such as artificial intelligence, data processing centers, and the aerospace industry, this process will be bolstered by joint research and development (R&D) activities and innovation platforms. Furthermore, technical support initiatives aimed at cultivating a skilled workforce will transform Azerbaijan’s human capital.

Under the heading of energy security, Azerbaijan’s diversification of supply routes and the support for the transit of mineral resources to global markets are vital for Europe, which has largely abandoned Russian oil and gas due to unilateral sanctions. In the realms of defense and security, there is an unprecedented convergence: the direct sale of defense industry products, joint military exercises and studies, the strengthening of cybersecurity, and humanitarian demining activities all aim for the Azerbaijani military’s “full alignment with NATO standards.”

Nuclear Rupture in Yerevan: The End of Metsamor and Dependence on the West

J.D. Vance’s visit to Yerevan, just one day prior to his arrival in Baku, represents the heaviest blow dealt to Russia’s presence in the Caucasus. The civil nuclear cooperation agreement signed between the US and Armenia fundamentally undermines Yerevan’s energy ties with Russia. The US has pledged up to $9 billion in investment for the Armenian nuclear sector. The primary focus of this investment is the replacement of the Soviet-era Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (VVER-440 reactors)—long the subject of safety debates—with American-designed “Small Modular Reactors” (SMRs).

While Metsamor meets 40% of Armenia’s electricity needs, this partnership with the Russian company Rosatom had begun to be viewed as a “strategic burden” for Yerevan. In his briefing in Yerevan, Vance noted that an initial $5 billion in exports and $4 billion in long-term technical support were on the way.

On the other hand, the “North-South Corridor” project, nurtured by Russia with great hope, has effectively been rendered obsolete with the transition of Zangezur to American control. Moscow had initially envisioned that the control of this corridor would remain with its own border guards, but that plan collapsed with the declaration signed in Washington in August 2025.

The roots of Russia’s current defeat extend back to the 2004 Adjara crisis and the subsequent vacillating stances. Those who remained silent when Saakashvili seized Adjara in 2004, and those who failed to protect the 12th Military Base in Batumi, have today completely lost their influence over Karabakh and Zangezur. Adjara is an autonomous region located in southwestern Georgia, on the Turkish border. Aslan Abashidze, who governed the region from the 1990s until 2004, had established a pro-Russian feudal administration independent of the central Tbilisi government. Mikheil Saakashvili, who came to power in Georgia following the Western-backed “Rose Revolution” of 2003, re-established central authority over Adjara in 2004, forcing Abashidze to seek asylum in Russia.

Had Russia pursued a more assertive diplomatic and military line at that time, the 2014 Maidan events might never have occurred, nor would the Caucasus have shifted so drastically toward the Western orbit. Just as the 1940 British and French plans to bomb Baku (Operation Pike) posed a threat then, the American private military companies now establishing themselves in the region represent an equally “horrific” security vulnerability for Russia and Iran.[2]

The signatures penned at the White House on August 8, 2025, began to bear fruit at the start of 2026. Construction of the 224-kilometer Kars-Dilucu railway line was commenced by Kalyon Construction, while Azerbaijan completed the Horadiz-Ağbend line. The 1,000-strong American private military force to be stationed in the region is likely the precursor to much larger military bases, air defense systems, and radar networks.

It may be useful here to refer to the statements of Russian politician and diplomat Nikolay Platonkin, published in recent months in Moskovsky Komsomolets. According to Platonkin, who notes that Azerbaijan’s stance toward Russia is not new but the result of decades of policy that Moscow chose to ignore, the current situation between Moscow and Baku resembles “a typical Turkish soap opera scenario where the head of a respectable family is revealed to have been a mafia leader with a secret second life for years.”

Platonkin, who served as the head of the Armenia desk at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs between 1998 and 2003, stated that Russia has made the same mistake with Azerbaijan as it did with Georgia.

“When Heydar Aliyev came to power, replacing the ultra-nationalist Abulfaz Elchibey, everyone in Moscow rejoiced. Yet throughout this time, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy remained consistently anti-Russian. Within the CIS, there were two groups from the beginning: those who wanted integration (Belarus, Armenia, Central Asia) and those who were anti-Russian and sought to strengthen ties with the West. This second group formed the GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova) alliance. Azerbaijan was always a part of this group,” Platonkin said.

According to Platonkin, the reason Azerbaijan had not joined NATO until now was not a lack of desire, but rather its exclusion due to the Karabakh conflict. The diplomat recalled that Baku, with Western assistance, built infrastructure to export Caspian Sea energy resources by bypassing Russia and eventually forced Moscow out of the vital Gabala Radar Station by demanding exorbitant rent.

Arguing that Armenia, by contrast, had always been a loyal ally, Platonkin made the following claims:

“We have a joint air defense system with Armenia. The Armenians transferred their defense industry facilities to us in exchange for their debts. Armenia’s entire energy sector was privatized by Russia. We saved the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, built during the Soviet era and producing half of the country’s electricity, despite Western demands for its closure. There was even a time when Yerevan paid the salaries of Russian soldiers and officers from its own budget so the base could remain when Moscow was not making payments.”

He further claimed that the plan to place the Zangezur corridor under US control was not new; a similar plan was signed in 2001 at Key West between then-leaders Robert Kocharyan and Heydar Aliyev, but Russia had blocked it.

Platonkin concluded by saying: “NATO is already in the Caspian. Militarily, Azerbaijan is a part of Turkey, and Turkey is a NATO country. Meanwhile, our people are still muttering, ‘Britain wants to infiltrate the Caspian.’ They are already there! Let us impose a tax on the money Azerbaijani workers send home, just as Trump did to the Mexicans. Let’s see how they treat us then.”


Notes:

[1] Rail gauges are not standardized globally. 1435 mm (Standard Gauge): Used in Turkey, most of Europe, the US, and China. 1520 mm (Russian Gauge): Used in former Soviet Union countries (Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, etc.). This discrepancy creates a logistical bottleneck, as trains must wait at borders for their wheelsets (bogies) to be swapped.

[2] The 1940 Anglo-French Plan to Bomb Baku (Operation Pike): A secret military plan prepared by Britain and France in the early stages of WWII (during the period when Germany had not yet attacked the USSR, but had signed a non-aggression pact). The Allies planned to bomb the oil fields in Baku to sever the flow of Soviet oil to Nazi Germany. The plan was shelved following the German invasion of France.

Diplomacy

FIFA abandons $4.2 billion commercial stake sale following widespread revolt

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FIFA and Gianni Infantino have backed down from plans to sell a stake in the organization’s commercial and event operations following widespread backlash.

In a statement issued late Friday night, the embattled FIFA president said:

“After carefully listening to all views, it has become clear that this project, regardless of the level of support, causes divisions that are now contrary to the interests of the objective originally established. Our goal has always been, and will always be, to unite and improve. As a result, this proposal will not be implemented.”

Infantino’s proposal met with fierce resistance from UEFA, CONCACAF, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).

UEFA indicated that all 55 of its members would boycott FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, if the plans remained on the table.

In its statement, FIFA noted that “nobody is selling football,” and while asserting that it “acknowledges and respects the feedback and concerns expressed publicly,” emphasized that it would continue to implement suggestions.

It added that it “reaffirms its commitment to an open and democratic process of consultation.”

Shortly after FIFA issued its statement, the AFC released its own declaration of solidarity with UEFA and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF).

Infantino subsequently suffered two major internal blows.

First, his adviser Carlos Cordeiro resigned from his position, sharply criticizing the plan in a statement as “a bad deal for FIFA member associations, a bad deal for football, and a bad deal for the long-term future of the game.”

Then, FIFA Chief Operating Officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press that staff felt “deceived” by Infantino and that after raising the issue, he would “sleep better, even at the cost of losing his job.”

Lamour said:

“This is the project of a single person. Leaving aside that this project should not proceed… it is now time for the political leaders of world football to ask themselves the right questions and make the right decisions.”

These developments left Infantino cornered, and by Friday afternoon, numerous figures within the organization—speaking to The Athletic on condition of anonymity to protect their jobs—believed it was no longer a question of “if” the cord would be cut, but “when.”

Joshua Kushner’s venture capital firm Thrive had not withdrawn from the deal as of Friday night, but that became moot when FIFA management ultimately decided to kill the project via a public statement.

Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump.

On Tuesday, world football’s governing body had announced its intention to establish FIFA Forward Enterprises (FFE), a new private entity to manage its flagship events, including the World Cup and the Club World Cup, with plans to sell a 21% minority stake in FFE to external investors.

The sale was targeted to generate $4.2 billion (£3.2 billion) in revenue. FIFA stated that this amount could be immediately distributed to its 211 member associations under a new funding stream named the “FIFA Fast-Forward Program” (FFFP).

Under the plan, FIFA’s total development funding would have exceeded $10 billion over the next four years.

Despite mounting criticism in recent days, FIFA confirmed that if member associations opposed the FFE plan but the proposal was accepted, the dissenting federations would each receive $20 million (£14.9 million) for the 2027–30 cycle, regardless of whether shares in FFE were sold to private investors (to be followed by $22 million for 2031–34 and $24 million for 2035–38).

However, had a given member association accepted the FFE proposal, it would have received $40 million for the 2027–30 period, with subsequent payouts remaining the same.

The three confederations that explicitly took a stand against FIFA’s plan represent 137 of the 211 FIFA member associations.

FIFA had stated that for the proposal to move forward, it required the approval of a majority of the 211 member associations as well as the 37-member FIFA Council, which consists of Infantino and eight FIFA vice presidents.

Strategic reactions and leadership crisis

South American football confederation CONMEBOL did not reject the plans in a statement on Friday, but noted that financial and commercial decisions “must always serve the interests of football and never take precedence over the essence of the game.”

According to a report by The Athletic, Infantino’s future leadership of FIFA was called into question during UEFA and CONCACAF meetings held on Thursday.

Infantino assumed the FIFA presidency in February 2016, succeeding Sepp Blatter, and was expected to run unopposed in the next election scheduled for March 2027.

There is also talk among European officials of putting forward Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Qatari CEO of beIN Media, to run against Infantino.

Lise Klaveness, President of the Norwegian Football Federation, told VG: “My clear impression right now is that he has suffered a major loss of trust. We did not vote for him last time and were skeptical about this. There are many good aspects to FIFA, but if you take a lax approach to governance principles and rules, you lose trust quickly.”

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Defense Priorities director warns US air strategy in Middle East faces tactical limits

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The collapse of a tentative memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, coupled with the diminishing strategic returns of American air power, has left the United States locked in an unsustainable, low-intensity conflict with Iran, according to Benjamin Friedman, Policy Director at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities.

Speaking in an interview on the YouTube channel Harici with host Sarp Sinan Hacır, Friedman attributed the failure of the short-lived US-Iran memorandum primarily to the Trump administration’s diplomatic missteps, vague draft language, and unrealistic expectations regarding a comprehensive settlement.

“Both sides really deserve some blame, but the Trump administration deserves the bulk of the blame for drafting an agreement that was so vague on key terms,” Friedman said, citing ambiguities surrounding the timeline for unfreezing Iranian assets and the scope of American commitments to restrain Israeli military operations in Lebanon.

Friedman emphasized that deep-seated mistrust in Tehran, exacerbated by repeated instances where diplomatic engagement was followed by Israeli or American military strikes, led Iranian negotiators to adopt an unyielding posture. At the same time, he noted that Iran likely miscalculated by using disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to aggressively force leverage.

“The Trump administration remained intent on this sort of grand bargain that would restrain Iran seeking weapons development… and I think they continue to misread the Iranian willingness to sign that kind of deal,” Friedman noted, adding that Tehran viewed its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as essential despite the risk of provoking further strikes.

Expressing deep skepticism over the prospects for a lasting diplomatic breakthrough, Friedman criticized the administration’s reliance on informal envoys such as Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner over professional diplomatic channels, predicting that the baseline outcome will remain an unpredictable, episodic conflict.

“What’s more likely is a kind of on-off-again kind of war—sort of what we’re in now, where we have occasional strikes, with the United States perhaps by accident adopting the Israeli model of ‘mowing the lawn’ periodically,” Friedman said.

Addressing the efficacy of US air power, Friedman argued that military operations against Iranian targets have reached a point of diminishing returns. While early strikes successfully eliminated critical high-value assets—such as over-the-horizon radar systems that targeted anti-ship missiles—Iran’s ballistic missile and long-range drone capabilities remain largely intact and operational.

He pointed to a recent strike on a base hosting US personnel in Jordan, launched from western Iran over a distance exceeding 1,000 kilometers, as evidence of Tehran’s sustained strike precision and the tactical limits of American interdiction efforts.

“The war is a failure for air power even in a tactical sense,” Friedman stated. “Initially, we looked at it and said we had a lot of success in destroying targets, but as more information came out, it turned out they had maybe more than half of their missiles and launchers survive the initial phase of the war.”

Friedman observed that the global proliferation of low-cost, high-precision guidance technology has permanently altered the strategic landscape, neutralizing the traditional invulnerability of forward-deployed US installations. “The precise effects of air power that used to be almost a monopoly of the United States… is actually making our posture in the region less sustainable,” he said, warning that similar vulnerabilities would be vastly amplified in any potential high-intensity conflict with China.

As an alternative to open-ended military engagement, Friedman suggested that Washington consider a complete military withdrawal from the region, even if it entails accepting Iranian transit fees on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “The cost of preventing that through perpetual outbursts of warfare is much higher than just accepting it,” he noted.

Turning to regional dynamics, Friedman addressed Israel’s current absence from active strike operations against Iran, characterizing it as a calculated move to preserve its own air defense interceptors while relying on Washington to bear the operational and political burdens of containment.

On European security and the broader alliance structure, Friedman offered a critical assessment of the NATO summit in Ankara and the administration’s “NATO 3.0” concept. He described the white paper led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as an effort to coerce European states into escalating defense expenditures and purchasing American hardware under the threat of reduced security guarantees, rather than executing a structured, strategic US posture adjustment.

“This is not a real US withdrawal; it’s a kind of pressure to up your loyalty in a particular way,” Friedman said, noting that major European powers such as Germany, France, and the UK lack a compelling existential incentive to construct independent, large-scale conventional war-fighting capabilities.

Regarding bilateral relations with Ankara, Friedman noted that US-Turkish tensions have eased considerably following the shift in American posture in Syria and progress toward resolving long-standing friction points, including the F-35 program and S-400 procurement. He added that while Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed frustration over Washington’s constructive engagement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the White House has maintained its strategic course despite pressure from domestic pro-Israel lobbying groups.

Addressing internal Republican Party dynamics, Friedman highlighted the evolving public stance of Vice President J.D. Vance, whose cautious criticism of Israeli influence and emphasis on divergent national interests reflects broader ideological shifts within the conservative base.

“Vance is more representative of the shift in the Republican Party,” Friedman said. “He’s criticizing them in a limited way and saying, ‘Our interests are different.’ From the perspective of those of us who would like the United States to have a more distant relationship from Israel, it’s progress.”

Looking ahead to the upcoming US midterm elections, Friedman anticipated that a loss of congressional control by the Republican Party would severely curtail the administration’s domestic executive overreach, though its structural impact on foreign policy execution and Middle Eastern operations would remain comparatively limited.

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UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges full support to Ukraine in meeting with Zelenskyy

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UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, England.

Zelenskyy is the first world leader Burnham has met in person since taking office, with the prime minister committing to building a “firm partnership” between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.

Demonstrating their support, the two leaders toured a military base in Portsmouth where 200 Ukrainian troops are currently undergoing naval training exercises.

Burnham described his meeting with the Ukrainian president as “warm” and said he plans to visit Ukraine soon.

“We will build this together and address the various issues President Zelenskyy is facing, many of which we discussed today,” Burnham said.

The meeting follows an announcement by London that it will share intellectual property rights to assist Kyiv’s war effort.

The new prime minister announced that the UK will share the “Stone Cloak” electronic warfare system—which is fitted to drones to prevent detection—and will assist Ukraine in mass-producing the technology.

Burnham has focused primarily on domestic matters since replacing Keir Starmer, who faced criticism from elements within his own party for spending too much time abroad and focusing heavily on foreign affairs.

However, Burnham sought to signal continuity in Britain’s policy toward Ukraine. In one of his first phone calls after becoming prime minister last week, Burnham invited Zelenskyy to visit the UK “as soon as possible.”

Starmer spent his final full day as prime minister in Kyiv, where he announced £255 million in funding for Ukraine.

Speaking to Sky on Monday, Zelenskyy said his telephone conversation with Burnham had been “very good.”

The Ukrainian leader noted that Starmer had previously assured him that “the new government would maintain the policy of supporting Ukraine during the war.”

The new prime minister told the Ukrainian leader it was “no coincidence” that he was his first international visitor since moving into Downing Street.

“The purpose of this is to send a very clear message. We stand 100% with Ukraine, I personally stand 100% with you, and I will fully deliver on every commitment this country has made to Ukraine,” Burnham said.

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