Diplomacy
Global Geopolitics launched in Berlin, focusing on multipolarity and changing global order
International scholars and policy experts gathered in Berlin for the launch of Global Geopolitics, a new peer-reviewed academic journal examining the complex dynamics of international relations, power structures, and global strategic trends.
The inaugural roundtable, organized in cooperation with the Berlin-based Eurasian Society, provided a platform to discuss developments such as the perceived decline of Western unipolarity, the emergence of what some speakers termed “civilizational states,” and differing interpretations of value-based foreign policy in a more fragmented global environment.
A mandate for inclusivity in a changing world
The launch took place during what Efe Can Gürcan, the journal’s Editor-in-Chief, described as a period of “profound change” and “major transition.” Dr. Gürcan, affiliated with Queen’s University Belfast and the Turkish Academy of Sciences, outlined the journal’s aim to broaden discussions within the field of geopolitics.
“Today we’re meeting at a moment of profound change… and geopolitics is once again moving on the headlines, on the forefront of our agenda,” Gürcan stated in his opening remarks. He noted that despite growing interest in geopolitical issues, there remain “very few academic journals which are exclusively focused or devoted to the study of geopolitics.”
According to Gürcan, the journal seeks to move beyond conventional binaries often present in geopolitical debates. “Geopolitics is often framed by reference to conflict, exclusion, rivalry,” he observed. “While this is partially true, we prefer to take a much more expansive approach… at the end of the day, it all comes down to one simple word: inclusivity.” He outlined three pillars of this approach:
- Geographical inclusivity, encouraging contributions from scholars across all the seven continents, not just the West, not just the East, not just the Global South.”
- Disciplinary inclusivity, incorporating perspectives from various disciplines including history, sociology, and economics,
- Analytical inclusivity, integrating perspectives from International Relations (IR) theory as well as both traditional and critical geopolitics, and examining not only conflict but also cooperation, connectivity, and non-traditional security issues.

Efecan Gürcan
“In Global Geopolitics, the term ‘global’ is not used in the same sense as ‘globalism,’” Gürcan clarified, adding that “it is a conscious and meaningful choice on our part,” which does not imply alignment with any specific political project or ideological agenda. Rather, the pairing of “global” and “geopolitics” is deliberate, underscoring the journal’s commitment to geographical, disciplinary, and analytical inclusivity alongside academic rigor.
The journal’s editorial infrastructure reflects today’s multipolar reality, boasting a board with representatives from the UK, Canada, India, China, Japan, Brazil, Peru, Türkiye, among others. The first issue addresses topics such as the Ukraine conflict, energy policy, and global migration through empirical research.
The failure of moralism and the return of “realpolitik”
Following Dr. Gürcan’s introduction, the keynote session was opened by Alexander Rahr, Chairman of the Eurasian Society and a veteran historian formerly associated with the German Council on Foreign Relations. Rahr delivered a scathing critique of the current intellectual climate in Germany and Western Europe, arguing that the fixation on “liberal values” has rendered traditional diplomatic analysis obsolete.
“Germany, but also some other European countries, are now focused 100% in their view, in their analysis, in their policy, on so-called liberal values and nothing else,” Rahr asserted. He argued that this moral absolutism was sustainable only when the West was unchallenged. “It went okay for the West to have this kind of projection over the past 25 or 35 years when the West was united, the West was strong… Now we are in serious trouble.”
Rahr framed the launch of the journal as a necessary intervention to reintroduce “Realpolitik” into the European discourse. He lamented the lack of diverse voices in the German public sphere, contrasting it unfavorably with the United States, where figures like John Mearsheimer or Jeffrey Sachs still command attention.

For Rahr, the geopolitical imperative for Europe is clear: a pivot toward understanding, rather than lecturing, the emerging powers. “I would like to make the focus on the BRICS countries,” he said. “These BRICS countries… have the potential of becoming new poles in the world.”
He argued that for Germany and Europe, getting closer to these nations is not merely an economic option but a security necessity. “Only by doing this we can sustain, maintain peace and cooperation in this complex multipolar world.” Rahr specifically highlighted the need to comprehend “Chinese thinking” and “Indian thinking,” areas where he claims European elites know “very little, almost nothing.”
The dangers of the “missionary mentality”
Dr. Christopher Mott, a Washington Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, addressed what he called the “dangers of missionary mentality.” Dr. Mott offered a realist deconstruction of the liberal international order, warning that the impulse to convert the world to a single ideological standard is a recipe for endless conflict.
Mott began by quoting the philosopher George Santayana: “The humanitarian, like the missionary, is often an irreconcilable enemy of the people he seeks to befriend because he has not imagination enough to sympathize with their proper needs nor humility enough to respect them as if they were his own.”
Mott argued that the “unipolar moment” following the Soviet collapse was a “freakish occurrence” in history, lasting at most 20 years. The shock currently felt in Western capitals, he suggested, stems from a refusal to accept that normalcy—historical multipolarity—has returned.

Christopher Mott
“99% of human history was effectively multipolar,” Mott noted. “How do we most constructively learn to be normal again after having bathed in the mentally stultifying lies of a universal human destiny?”
He cautioned against viewing the emerging order as a shared journey. “There is no shared political journey. The future will be as divergent as the past was,” Mott said. He advocated for “polycentrism,” a system where different regimes and ideologies coexist based on “sovereign geographic entities” rather than a forced consensus.
“Liberal internationalism, in its quest to become a universal arbiter of morality… forgot that once upon a time its greatest asset was that it acknowledged many forms of being,” Mott said, referencing the philosophy of Spinoza and Hobbes. He warned European states against becoming a “Saudi Arabia of militant humanism,” exporting a universalist worldview that isolates them from the rest of the globe.
Mott’s prescription for the North Atlantic was a return to “situational realism” and local interest. He closed by invoking George Washington’s Farewell Address, citing the founding father’s warning against weaving “artificial ties” with foreign powers. “Reject Baerbockism, embrace situ-realism,” Mott concluded, referring to the current German Foreign Minister’s value-based diplomacy.
Deconstructing the “West” and the “Global South”
Professor Jagannath Panda, Head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, shifted the focus to the structural dynamics of power in Asia and the broader globe. Panda challenged the very terminology used to describe the current order, suggesting that the binary of “East vs. West” has dissolved.
Reflecting on the recent World Economic Forum, Panda observed: “What I found very interesting in Davos is that there was less about economics… it was more about political economy, political security.” He went further, stating that speeches from leaders like Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau revealed a fracturing of the traditional Western bloc.
“There is nothing called ‘West’ today,” Panda argued. “If West does not exist, then can we really say that there is a fight exist between West and East? Probably there is no fight.” He extended this skepticism to the term “Global North,” suggesting that the convergence of interests is creating a “contesting world order” where countries partake in multiple, overlapping typologies of power.
Panda distinguished between multilateralism (a process establishing networks), multipolarism (the structural base of power), and multipolarity (the medium through which power is distributed). He cited BRICS as a unique entity that combines all three, unlike the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which functions purely as a multilateral mechanism.
Highlighting the growing strategic autonomy of nations, Panda pointed to the recent trade negotiations between India and the European Union. He noted that for the first time, EU leaders were chief guests at India’s Republic Day, signaling a “special chemistry” driven by mutual necessity rather than ideological alignment. “Both sides talk about something unique: strategic autonomy,” Panda said.
Panda also predicted a shift in the nature of global conflict. While territorial disputes remain, he warned that “resource politics is going to be shaping the global politics in times to come.” He identified coastal and corridor nations—such as Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives—as critical players in this new arena, where control over supply chains and raw materials will supersede traditional land grabs.
The empire of chaos and energy wars
The final keynote was delivered by Thomas Fazi, an Italian journalist and author known for his critique of neoliberalism. Fazi provided the most confrontational assessment of the day, characterizing the current geopolitical transition as the end of “500 years of Western economic, political, and military global hegemony.”
Fazi argued that while the rise of the non-Western world should be a natural evolution, the Western elite views it as an “existential threat,” leading to a form of “clinical” insanity in policymaking. “The US and Western powers [are] doing everything they can to slow down, if not stall, this transition to multipolarity,” Fazi said.

Thomas Fazi
He offered a provocative analysis of the Trump administration’s foreign policy, suggesting that what appears to be erratic behavior is actually a strategy of “engineered permanent chaos.” According to Fazi, Trump is not attacking random countries but “targeting the weak links” in the China-led system, such as Venezuela and Iran.
“Chaos… in Trump’s strategy is part of the strategy itself,” Fazi posited. He linked this to a broader US objective: re-establishing control over the physical and financial flows of energy. Fazi argued that the “unraveling” of the petrodollar system, driven by nations like Russia and Iran trading outside US jurisdiction, poses a lethal threat to American hegemony.
Lively Q&A highlights diverse perspectives on power, trade, and Europe’s future
Responding to a question about the resilience of non-Western powers, Mott argued that states with deep historical roots, distinct from mere nation-states, are overperforming.
“A state whose basis… is based in something a bit more historic than just election cycles… these are the states that will outperform,” Mott said. He cited China, India, and Ethiopia as prime examples of powers that can weather political storms because their identity transcends a single form of government. He contrasted this with the fragility of the Arab nation-states compared to the historical depth of Türkiye and Iran. “Iran has a level of continuity that enables it to punch above its weight.”
Rahr added a European dimension to this concept, arguing that Europe once possessed a form of “cultural unity” that has been eroded by “80 years of Americanization.” He warned that without recovering this cultural memory—which he insisted must include Russia—Europe risks being fractured or reduced to vassalage.
The Q&A session also addressed the economic architecture of the coming era. Responding to inquiries about the future global economy, the panelists agreed that the era of unfettered globalization is over, replaced by securitized trade and protectionism.
“You’re definitely going to see a pivot away from international free trade across the board,” Mott predicted. “Everything is going to be justified under the terms of national security.” He described a future of “state-directed preferred trade methods,” where efficiency is sacrificed for geopolitical reliability.
Fazi concurred, noting that the “free market” was always a myth in the West, but argued that the current shift represents a “fusion of state and corporate power.” He lamented that this retreat from globalization is being framed defensively rather than as an opportunity to improve domestic living standards. “We’re not seeing Western leaders talk about… investing to improve the lives of our citizens. No, we have to secure… so our enemies can’t blackmail us.”
Panda added that while protectionism will rise, so will the complexity of trade disputes. He pointed to the EU-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) not as a triumph of liberal economics, but as a “compromised deal” born of necessity. “Europe is in massive need of partnerships… economic security,” Panda said, noting that the deal represents a diversification away from China and the US for both parties.

Jagannath Panda
The discussion concluded with a debate on Europe’s role in a multipolar system. Fazi took a hardline stance, arguing that the European Union and NATO are structurally incapable of adapting to the new reality. “The European Union is a completely ahistorical reality… an imperial model which has hollowed out democracy,” Fazi claimed, dismissing hopes for reform as “illusions.”
Panda, however, offered a more moderate view, suggesting that Europe’s indecisiveness is its greatest weakness. “The time has come to take a call… to have a future army,” Panda urged, advocating for a Europe that acts as an independent pole rather than a US dependency.
Mott offered a final strategic prescription for the emerging order: a “modus vivendi” based on the rejection of hegemony. “The one thing that definitely should unite future architects of a stable multipolar order is to combat revisionism effectively,” Mott said. He envisioned a system of “counterbalancing forces” and “non-aligned leagues” that act as buffers to prevent any single power from dominating the globe.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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