America
US agricultural superpower status at risk as trade wars shift global markets to Brazil
The US is facing the imminent risk of losing its status as a global agricultural superpower, according to an analysis by the Financial Times. In a report titled “The Decline of the American Agricultural Superpower,” the publication detailed how the country is on the verge of surrendering its leading position in global agricultural exports.
According to calculations by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), farmers will confront severe financial challenges next year in cultivating the core crops that historically established the nation as the global export leader.
Federation data indicate that production losses are projected to reach $138 per acre for soybeans, $167 per acre for corn, $145 per acre for wheat, and $406 per acre for cotton.
US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show that the US registered $171 billion in agricultural exports last year. This figure is only $2 billion higher than the export volume of Brazil, which has capitalized on trade disruptions triggered by imposed tariffs.
Brazil, which broke records by increasing its exports by 6% to reach $87 billion in the first half of this year, ranks first globally in the production of soybeans, beef, and poultry. Additionally, it has surpassed the US in cotton exports.
Historically, the US developed its highly fertile lands during the 20th century, constructing a sophisticated network of silos, railways, and ports to produce grain far exceeding its domestic consumption, exporting the surplus abroad.
During this period, China became one of the primary buyers of US agricultural goods. As the American agricultural sector expanded, demand for soybean meal surged. Anticipating sustained growth in Chinese demand, American producers expanded their acreage and invested heavily in technology, storage facilities, and export terminals.
However, in 2018, Donald Trump introduced additional tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods. Beijing retaliated, causing Chinese purchases of American soybeans to drop sharply.
“Our trade agreements change based on someone’s arbitrary decisions,” said Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, commenting on the situation. “The immense effort spent on building relationships, conducting honest cooperation, and resolving emerging issues can be wiped out overnight.”
The Trump administration provided approximately $23 billion in direct financial support to farmers across 2018 and 2019. However, farmer Corey Goodhue noted that cash aid did not resolve the underlying structural issue: “We don’t need payments; we need trade.”
In the trade vacuum created by the dispute, China shifted its soybean procurement to Brazil. Joseph Glauber, former chief economist at the USDA, noted that Brazil’s share of the global market by 2020 had already surpassed levels previously projected for 2025.
Glauber described this acceleration as startling, adding that the trade wars directly generated this outcome.
By the time Trump returned to the White House in January of last year, the vast majority of China’s soybean imports were already being supplied by Brazil.
“We lost some of the foreign buyers who were customers for our products five years ago, and they never came back,” Lehman said.
Producers complain that the Republican president’s second term has brought a new wave of tariffs and trade uncertainty. In contrast, the USDA maintains that the country has not lost its standing, pointing to a record level of $174 billion in agricultural exports. Department officials stated that the current administration is establishing connections with foreign buyers to open new markets, expand existing ones, and ensure producers do not remain dependent on a single buyer.
Wendy Johnson, a producer from Iowa, expressed that while many farmers initially believed the president’s actions would yield positive results, the uncertainty persists.
“The future is approaching, but we do not see any clear hope,” Johnson said. “Politically speaking, you do not want Midwest farmers to lose hope.”
The US Supreme Court struck down the tariffs introduced after Trump’s “Independence Day” declaration in April 2025 during the month of February. Following this ruling, the US President signed an executive decree imposing a 10% additional tariff on all countries for a 150-day period.
While this 150-day period is expected to expire on July 24, the US Court of International Trade ruled the additional tariffs unlawful.
The Financial Times reported that the US administration is currently preparing new tariffs ranging between 10% and 12.5% targeting 60 countries.
America
Musk boosts Republican midterm funding despite pledge to curb spending
The world’s richest person, Elon Musk, has donated $276 million over the past three months to political action committees and conservative organizations supporting Republicans ahead of the upcoming US midterm elections.
The latest transfer brings the total midterm donations from Musk, the chief executive of Tesla and SpaceX, to $366 million.
First reported by The New York Times, the figures were confirmed to The Hill by a spokesperson for America PAC, which Musk founded. These latest expenditures establish Musk as the largest known donor of the 2026 midterms.
The bulk of Musk’s financial backing between July and September was directed towards congressional races.
The US billionaire transferred $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC supporting Republican Senate candidates, and $20 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund, which finances House Republicans.
Millions divided among various committees
Musk, who provided more than $76 million during the period to America PAC, an entity he founded during the 2024 election cycle, also funded state-level contests.
The businessman transferred $10 million to the Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, while donating $10 million to the Republican Governors Association and $2 million to the Republican Attorneys General Association.
In statements given to The New York Times and confirmed by The Hill, America PAC spokesperson Andrew Romeo argued that if Democrats take control in Washington and win critical state races, the country faces the risk of becoming one with indefensible borders.
Romeo said the investments enable the Republican apparatus to deliver its messages to voters.
Field spending continues despite talk of retreat
Musk, who kept his distance from politics for many years, entered the arena by spending hundreds of millions of dollars for Donald Trump during the 2024 election.
Accompanying Trump on campaign trails, Musk subsequently took charge of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which sparked controversy through federal employment and budget cuts.
Musk stepped down from his White House role in late May 2025 and remained politically quiet for months following a public rift with Trump.
After announcing last May that he would sharply scale back his political spending, Musk told The Economist in a July interview that he had become overly involved in politics and had gone too far.
Despite those remarks, Musk pressed ahead with political activity in July by authorizing America PAC to spend between $100 million and $120 million on a fresh field operation aimed at driving conservative voter turnout in the 2026 midterms.
Having repaired ties with Trump following their public spat, Musk joined the US president on an official visit to China in May and was also present during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington last month.
America
Trump weighs presidential memorandum to cut surging US diesel prices
US President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing to issue a new presidential directive soon in a bid to rein in escalating diesel prices across the country.
According to a report by the Reuters news agency citing three oil industry sources, the White House is weighing the enactment of the prepared package of measures directly in the form of a presidential memorandum.
The memorandum in question will reportedly instruct multiple US federal agencies to find and implement ways to lower diesel fuel costs, primarily by expanding oil extraction operations and refinery output.
White House plans to deploy Defense Production Act
According to information shared in the report, the Trump administration is exploring legal avenues to overcome restrictions imposed on energy production by state administrations and local government authorities.
The administration could reportedly invoke the Cold War era Defense Production Act to that end.
The legislation in question grants the US president the authority to provide state loans and financial guarantees to expand the production of materials of strategic importance. The law also makes it possible to require private companies to prioritise government orders.
Reuters reported that the White House is comprehensively examining the prospect of putting this legal mechanism into effect.
In contrast, oil refinery executives were noted to have made a recommendation to government officials last month.
Industry representatives suggested allocating federal budget resources toward modernising existing operational refineries and expanding their capacity, rather than establishing new facilities from scratch.
Plant managers stated that building new facilities would require substantially more time and higher costs.
The Wall Street Journal newspaper also highlighted in a report published in mid September that US-based oil companies were warning of the onset of a global fuel crisis.
The newspaper noted that during the period in question, diesel prices broke records, whilst the price per barrel of crude oil approached the $101 mark.
American Automobile Association (AAA) data show that as of Thursday, 8 October, the average diesel fuel price nationwide stood at $6.28 per gallon (approximately 3.8 litres).
High fuel costs pose risk ahead of congressional elections
It was pointed out that the increase in diesel fuel prices creates political risks for the Republican Party ahead of the congressional elections to be held on 3 November.
It was noted that the outcome of the vote will determine whether Republicans can maintain their majority in Congress.
Because diesel is heavily consumed in freight transport, the agricultural sector, and home heating in particular, price rises in the fuel were stressed as driving headline inflation higher.
Trump previously announced that he had reached an understanding with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the supply of Russian diesel fuel to both the American and global markets. The US president also thanked Putin for the arrangement concerning Russian diesel.
The US Department of the Treasury extended a temporary waiver licence permitting commercial transactions involving Russian diesel fuel until 7 April 2027.
Under the delivery schedule shared by Donald Trump, Russia will immediately ship more than 300,000 tonnes of fuel.
Shipments will reportedly continue with 500,000 tonnes in November, followed by the delivery of an additional 1 million tonnes of fuel. Over the remainder of the process, Moscow could send a further 3 million tonnes of diesel depending on the overall technical condition of refineries.
Following the announcement of the consensus between the two leaders, US diesel futures fell by approximately 5% to reach $4.64 per gallon.
Meanwhile, energy analysts consulted by Reuters express doubt as to whether the additional shipments arriving from Russia will suffice to secure a lasting price decline across the markets.
America
Thiel targets Pope and Obama over AI in new ‘Antichrist’ lectures
Peter Thiel has argued that former President Barack Obama and Pope Leo XIV are stoking public fears over artificial intelligence merely to enhance their own popularity.
In newly disclosed “Antichrist” lectures obtained by Politico, Thiel specifically targeted the two leaders while warning against the Antichrist, which he sees as halting technological progress and advocating a regulatory “one-world government”.
“A lot of people know that AI is politically unpopular, and they want to use that to boost their own popularity,” Thiel reportedly said during his address in Nashville.
Thiel continued:
“Both Obama and the pope fall into this category. Obama knows that Democrats have no ideas, but at least they can oppose AI.”
Obama recently called on Democrats to develop a comprehensive approach to the regulation of artificial intelligence.
Referring to Leo’s first encyclical on AI, “Magnifica Humanitas”, Thiel said: “The Church needed a politically popular issue to divert attention from child sexual abuse scandals, and it found it in AI.”
On the pontiff, he stated verbatim:
“AI is the greatest threat to late modernity. The pope realizes this. That is why he wrote his first encyclical… The Church needed a politically popular issue to divert attention from child sexual abuse scandals, and it found it in AI.”
In recent months, Pope Leo has gone on the offensive against artificial intelligence. The leader of the Catholic world recently said that this technology could create a “paradise of machines” that could endanger humanity.
Thiel’s relationship with the Catholic Church is fraught. This spring, largely in response to Thiel’s earlier lectures on the “Antichrist”, Vatican adviser Father Paolo Benanti penned an article entitled “The American Heresy: Should We Burn Peter Thiel?”
Throughout the lectures, Thiel framed familiar technology debates in religious terms.
Citing Matthew 24:24, for instance, the investor quoted:
“For false christs and false prophets will arise and perform great signs and wonders, so as to deceive, if possible, even the elect.”
Regarding this verse, he asked in Nashville: “And what about the psychology of the Antichrist? Could he see himself as the Christ?”
In his Nashville lectures, he also delved into the concept of the “Katechon”, drawn from the Second Epistle to the Thessalonians, which restrains the arrival and rise to power of the Antichrist.
Figures who may have briefly assumed the role of the Katechon throughout history included Charlemagne and Klemens von Metternich.
“If anti-communism is the Katechon holding back communists trying to create a communist one-world state, then neoliberalism is anti-communism in a world without communists,” Thiel said.
In both San Francisco and Nashville, Thiel devoted a significant portion of his opening lecture to addressing “effective altruism”.
This ideology rests on the premise that human beings should always act to minimise existential risk to the species and maximise positive long-term impact.
Many effective altruists and affiliated groups are based in San Francisco and work on artificial intelligence research.
In Nashville, Thiel criticised their ideas. This stance reflects the fact that they have dominated much of the recent AI safety debate, showing Thiel’s concern over the growing influence of this group.
Thiel stated:
“One reason [the effective altruists’] strategy works, of course, is that an apocalypse is impossible to undo. You only have one planet. Even Greta [Thunberg] was right about that. … So you can’t just ignore the risks. But we must also take seriously that when you establish a near-totalitarian one-world government empowered to stop all dangerous scientific work, undoing that will not be easy either… There is no historical example suggesting this global warden would willingly surrender power. Effective altruist ideology has brainwashed a significant portion of the people working on AI.”
The remarks delivered by Thiel in his lectures on 28 September and on Monday provide a rare glimpse into the conservative tech billionaire’s shifting political priorities over time.
Thiel’s opposition to regulation is not new. That perspective is widely shared among Silicon Valley venture capitalists.
What distinguishes Thiel from his peers in the conservative tech sector is his decision to frame political disputes in religious terms while simultaneously attacking the leader of the Catholic Church.
This shift could reverberate across the political arena. Thiel was an early backer of President Donald Trump and served as a major financial sponsor of Vice President JD Vance’s transition from venture capital into politics.
Politico noted that Thiel’s attacks on the church could complicate matters for Vance, a Catholic convert.
Democrats positioning themselves for the 2028 presidential election have already begun targeting Vance over his ties to the billionaire investor.
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