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A new chapter in the ill-fated destiny of the Caucasus: Notes from J.D. Vance’s diplomatic foray into Baku and Yerevan

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The Strategic Partnership Charter, signed between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and United States Vice President J.D. Vance, has elevated the relations between the two states from a mere declaration of intent to the level of a formal, unshakable “covenant.” This document symbolizes not only a rapprochement between the two nations but also the definitive entry of the region into the strategic orbit of the NATO axis. As the American Embassy in Baku has articulated, Washington is acting with a resolute determination to “transform the dormant, gargantuan potential” of the South Caucasus into a lived reality.

The signed charter functions as a foundational instrument, regulating not just the current state of cooperation but its trajectory for decades to come. Among the core pillars of the document is the mutual and unconditional recognition of “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” This constitutes a high-level certification that the era of “frozen conflicts” in the region has reached its conclusion.

Provisions such as the development of transport routes and the establishment of partnerships in strategic sectors signal that the text will not remain a mere paper exercise; rather, it heralds a massive surge in ground-level infrastructure and an onslaught of American capital into the South Caucasus.

A Logistical Revolution: The Middle Corridor and the “Trump Route”

The concrete provisions of the charter focus heavily on regional connectivity. Two monumental projects take center stage here: the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) and the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity).

The Middle Corridor is a commercial artery originating in China and extending through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to Turkey and Europe—completely “bypassing” Russia. According to 2025 data, cargo flow along this route has seen a staggering 62% increase compared to 2024, reaching 4.5 million tons. For Western logistics firms, this path has become a far more profitable and secure alternative to the “Northern Route” passing through Russia. Indeed, the target is for cargo originating in China to reach Europe via this route in a mere 12 days.

The most critical link in this vast network is the 44-kilometer Zangezur Corridor, which will traverse Armenian territory. Following an agreement mediated personally by Donald Trump at the White House on August 8, 2025, the management of this corridor was transferred to the United States for a term of 99 years. This passage, dubbed the “Trump Route,” will connect Nakhchivan with the Azerbaijani mainland, thereby ending the geographical discontinuity of the Turkic republics—or, conversely, resulting in the encirclement of Russia from the south. This derelict line, where tracks had been uprooted since 1991, is now being reconstructed under the control of an American company, with an ownership structure where 30% of profits go to Armenia, 30% to Azerbaijan, and 40% to the American operator.[1]

The Influx of American Capital into the Caucasus

The economic dimension of the charter can be read as something far beyond conventional trade agreements—it is an all-out influx of American capital into Baku. A “digital transformation” is planned with the direct participation of both public and private sector capital from both nations. While cooperation is envisioned in high-tech fields such as artificial intelligence, data processing centers, and the aerospace industry, this process will be bolstered by joint research and development (R&D) activities and innovation platforms. Furthermore, technical support initiatives aimed at cultivating a skilled workforce will transform Azerbaijan’s human capital.

Under the heading of energy security, Azerbaijan’s diversification of supply routes and the support for the transit of mineral resources to global markets are vital for Europe, which has largely abandoned Russian oil and gas due to unilateral sanctions. In the realms of defense and security, there is an unprecedented convergence: the direct sale of defense industry products, joint military exercises and studies, the strengthening of cybersecurity, and humanitarian demining activities all aim for the Azerbaijani military’s “full alignment with NATO standards.”

Nuclear Rupture in Yerevan: The End of Metsamor and Dependence on the West

J.D. Vance’s visit to Yerevan, just one day prior to his arrival in Baku, represents the heaviest blow dealt to Russia’s presence in the Caucasus. The civil nuclear cooperation agreement signed between the US and Armenia fundamentally undermines Yerevan’s energy ties with Russia. The US has pledged up to $9 billion in investment for the Armenian nuclear sector. The primary focus of this investment is the replacement of the Soviet-era Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (VVER-440 reactors)—long the subject of safety debates—with American-designed “Small Modular Reactors” (SMRs).

While Metsamor meets 40% of Armenia’s electricity needs, this partnership with the Russian company Rosatom had begun to be viewed as a “strategic burden” for Yerevan. In his briefing in Yerevan, Vance noted that an initial $5 billion in exports and $4 billion in long-term technical support were on the way.

On the other hand, the “North-South Corridor” project, nurtured by Russia with great hope, has effectively been rendered obsolete with the transition of Zangezur to American control. Moscow had initially envisioned that the control of this corridor would remain with its own border guards, but that plan collapsed with the declaration signed in Washington in August 2025.

The roots of Russia’s current defeat extend back to the 2004 Adjara crisis and the subsequent vacillating stances. Those who remained silent when Saakashvili seized Adjara in 2004, and those who failed to protect the 12th Military Base in Batumi, have today completely lost their influence over Karabakh and Zangezur. Adjara is an autonomous region located in southwestern Georgia, on the Turkish border. Aslan Abashidze, who governed the region from the 1990s until 2004, had established a pro-Russian feudal administration independent of the central Tbilisi government. Mikheil Saakashvili, who came to power in Georgia following the Western-backed “Rose Revolution” of 2003, re-established central authority over Adjara in 2004, forcing Abashidze to seek asylum in Russia.

Had Russia pursued a more assertive diplomatic and military line at that time, the 2014 Maidan events might never have occurred, nor would the Caucasus have shifted so drastically toward the Western orbit. Just as the 1940 British and French plans to bomb Baku (Operation Pike) posed a threat then, the American private military companies now establishing themselves in the region represent an equally “horrific” security vulnerability for Russia and Iran.[2]

The signatures penned at the White House on August 8, 2025, began to bear fruit at the start of 2026. Construction of the 224-kilometer Kars-Dilucu railway line was commenced by Kalyon Construction, while Azerbaijan completed the Horadiz-Ağbend line. The 1,000-strong American private military force to be stationed in the region is likely the precursor to much larger military bases, air defense systems, and radar networks.

It may be useful here to refer to the statements of Russian politician and diplomat Nikolay Platonkin, published in recent months in Moskovsky Komsomolets. According to Platonkin, who notes that Azerbaijan’s stance toward Russia is not new but the result of decades of policy that Moscow chose to ignore, the current situation between Moscow and Baku resembles “a typical Turkish soap opera scenario where the head of a respectable family is revealed to have been a mafia leader with a secret second life for years.”

Platonkin, who served as the head of the Armenia desk at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs between 1998 and 2003, stated that Russia has made the same mistake with Azerbaijan as it did with Georgia.

“When Heydar Aliyev came to power, replacing the ultra-nationalist Abulfaz Elchibey, everyone in Moscow rejoiced. Yet throughout this time, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy remained consistently anti-Russian. Within the CIS, there were two groups from the beginning: those who wanted integration (Belarus, Armenia, Central Asia) and those who were anti-Russian and sought to strengthen ties with the West. This second group formed the GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova) alliance. Azerbaijan was always a part of this group,” Platonkin said.

According to Platonkin, the reason Azerbaijan had not joined NATO until now was not a lack of desire, but rather its exclusion due to the Karabakh conflict. The diplomat recalled that Baku, with Western assistance, built infrastructure to export Caspian Sea energy resources by bypassing Russia and eventually forced Moscow out of the vital Gabala Radar Station by demanding exorbitant rent.

Arguing that Armenia, by contrast, had always been a loyal ally, Platonkin made the following claims:

“We have a joint air defense system with Armenia. The Armenians transferred their defense industry facilities to us in exchange for their debts. Armenia’s entire energy sector was privatized by Russia. We saved the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, built during the Soviet era and producing half of the country’s electricity, despite Western demands for its closure. There was even a time when Yerevan paid the salaries of Russian soldiers and officers from its own budget so the base could remain when Moscow was not making payments.”

He further claimed that the plan to place the Zangezur corridor under US control was not new; a similar plan was signed in 2001 at Key West between then-leaders Robert Kocharyan and Heydar Aliyev, but Russia had blocked it.

Platonkin concluded by saying: “NATO is already in the Caspian. Militarily, Azerbaijan is a part of Turkey, and Turkey is a NATO country. Meanwhile, our people are still muttering, ‘Britain wants to infiltrate the Caspian.’ They are already there! Let us impose a tax on the money Azerbaijani workers send home, just as Trump did to the Mexicans. Let’s see how they treat us then.”

Notes:

[1] Rail gauges are not standardized globally. 1435 mm (Standard Gauge): Used in Turkey, most of Europe, the US, and China. 1520 mm (Russian Gauge): Used in former Soviet Union countries (Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, etc.). This discrepancy creates a logistical bottleneck, as trains must wait at borders for their wheelsets (bogies) to be swapped.

[2] The 1940 Anglo-French Plan to Bomb Baku (Operation Pike): A secret military plan prepared by Britain and France in the early stages of WWII (during the period when Germany had not yet attacked the USSR, but had signed a non-aggression pact). The Allies planned to bomb the oil fields in Baku to sever the flow of Soviet oil to Nazi Germany. The plan was shelved following the German invasion of France.

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Iran rejects Turkish foreign minister’s comparison of regional policy to Israel

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13/07/2026

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Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei strongly criticized Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent statements comparing Iran’s regional actions to those of Israel, calling the comparison “astonishing and incorrect” during his weekly press conference.

In a comprehensive briefing on Monday, Baghaei addressed a wide range of foreign policy developments and regional security matters, including relations with Türkiye, the current state of diplomatic understandings with the United States, and Iran’s nuclear program.

“Hakan Fidan’s comparison is astonishing and incorrect”

When asked about Fidan’s assertions regarding Iran and his comparison of Iranian actions to those of the Israeli government, Baghaei sharply rejected the assessment.

“It is astonishing that a figure of Mr. Fidan’s standing would make such an unwarranted comparison,” Baghaei said. “He knows very well that the Israeli regime is expansionist by nature and seeks to harm the entire region, including Türkiye. How they arrived at such a bizarre comparison remains a major question for us.”

Baghaei asserted that Iran maintains no proxy forces in the region and argued that Israel represents the only true proxy entity in the Middle East. “We ask our Turkish friends to align their analyses with existing realities and to avoid repeating analyses that serve the exploitative interests of the Israeli regime,” the spokesperson added.

The remarks follow recent statements by Fidan, in which he addressed the ongoing conflict involving Hezbollah and Hamas, describing them as Iranian proxies in the region.

“We need to return to a situation where the sovereignty and territorial integrity of every nation is fully recognized,” Fidan had stated. “Iran has long claimed to pursue a preventive security policy by maintaining proxies in these countries, just as the Israelis occupy the rest of the region as part of their own security.”

“The Islamabad Agreement has entered a crisis phase”

Responding to a question regarding the status of the Islamabad Agreement, Baghaei stated: “There is no doubt that this agreement has entered a crisis phase.”

While emphasizing that Iran approaches all negotiations with seriousness and precision, and fulfills its commitments in good faith once an agreement is reached, Baghaei accused the opposing party of failing to honor its pledges.

“They were so eager to breach the agreement that they did not even allow the one-month period specified in Article 5 regarding the Strait of Hormuz to run its course. They began backsliding from the very first days,” Baghaei said. “Looking at the 14 articles of the memorandum of understanding, the Americans dismantled different components of the agreement within this short timeframe. We have maintained from the beginning that it is a matter of ‘commitment for commitment.’ As long as the other party fulfills its obligations, we will remain committed to ours.”

“We reject the IAEA’s request to access damaged facilities”

Asked about the request by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi for inspectors to return to Iran and visit damaged nuclear facilities, Baghaei delivered a flat rejection, stating that the request would not be granted.

Addressing separate reports regarding satellite imagery of nuclear facility reconstruction, Baghaei noted that he had not yet seen the satellite images in question and therefore declined to comment.

“We will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to be threatened by the US”

Commenting on maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and allegations that the United States is providing military escorts to 20 vessels, Baghaei reiterated Iran’s opposition to the presence of extra-regional forces.

Baghaei stated that regional security can only be achieved without foreign intervention, through consultative mechanisms among regional countries. He added that the US military presence is a source of insecurity in the region.

“We will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to become an area of threat against Iran’s interests,” the spokesperson said. “We made genuine efforts to ensure navigation security, but the US was the party that undermined the process. The claims regarding vessel escorts demonstrate that the US is continuing its interventionist and aggressive policies in the region.”

Regarding the interpretation of Article 5 of the memorandum of understanding, Baghaei stated that the text is clear and leaves no room for interpretation.

He noted that provisions designating the management of the strait to Iran, in consultation with Oman, were included in the text to protect Iranian interests. He added that the US is attempting to establish parallel routes by provoking regional countries, which he warned causes environmental issues and jeopardizes maritime safety.

“The declaration by the three European countries is null and void”

Referring to a joint declaration issued by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, Baghaei dismissed the statement as entirely invalid, accusing the European nations of attempting to distort facts.

He stated that the actions of the US and Israel are the source of instability and harm in both the region and the wider world, adding that such declarations do not contribute to any resolution.

Addressing claims made by the French Foreign Minister, Baghaei added that French officials should cease attempting to assume roles in matters that do not concern them.

“We have not conditioned cooperation with Afghanistan on recognition”

Baghaei provided details on a recent visit to Afghanistan by Alireza Jalalzadeh, the Deputy Foreign Minister for Consular Affairs, noting that discussions were conducted within the framework of consular affairs and people-to-people relations.

Highlighting that Iran shares a border of more than 900 kilometers with Afghanistan, hosts a large number of Afghan migrants, and maintains extensive commercial ties, Baghaei said: “We have not conditioned the official recognition of the Afghan administration on the cooperation necessary for the interests of both countries. The recognition process is a legal procedure, and a decision on this matter will be made when the time comes.”

“We do not make decisions on behalf of Lebanon”

Rejecting allegations that Iran is interfering in the internal affairs of Lebanon and Oman, Baghaei said: “We do not make decisions on behalf of anyone. The inclusion of Lebanon’s name in the memorandum of understanding demonstrates Iran’s sense of responsibility toward maintaining international security. In the first article of the text, we emphasized the need to end the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. This is not a matter of decision-making; the decision belongs to the Lebanese people.”

Addressing international pressure regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah, Baghaei stated that the Lebanese people are best positioned to understand the value of the resistance’s weapons in protecting their sovereignty, and that any decision on the matter rests solely with them.

“Trump’s claims are false”

Baghaei denied claims made by former US President Donald Trump regarding Iran’s conduct during nuclear negotiations.

“Lying has become a behavioral pattern and an addiction for the US,” Baghaei said. “The talks held in Muscat on Saturday focused exclusively on the Strait of Hormuz. We attempted to establish a mechanism to ensure the safe passage of vessels through Omani mediation, but this outcome was not reached due to pressure exerted on Oman.”

He added that alleged assassination plots against Trump were never a subject of negotiation.

“The death of Lindsey Graham will not grieve free people”

When asked to comment on the death of US Senator Lindsey Graham, Baghaei remarked:

“The Angel of Death is just. One cannot expect the peoples of the region to mourn a figure who built his life philosophy on aggression, war, and terror, and who boasted of being the greatest supporter of genocide. The death of this aggressive senator will not grieve the heart of any free person.”

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NATO leadership sees no evidence of Russian preparations for attack on Baltics by 2030

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13/07/2026

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The military and political leadership of NATO sees no evidence that Russia is preparing for a potential attack on the Baltic states by 2030, according to a report by The Times, citing a senior alliance source.

“I see absolutely no sign that Russia is interested in engaging in any conflict with NATO,” the high-ranking source told the newspaper. The official added that they had no intention of speculating on the date of a potential conflict, as some other officials within the alliance have done.

The Times noted that rhetoric suggesting an open military conflict between NATO and Russia could begin in 2030 is primarily being used to mobilize the resources of the alliance’s member states. The report stated that this framing aims to encourage members to meet a defense spending target set at 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035. Speaking to the newspaper on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Martin O’Donnell, spokesperson for the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), said that allies currently have a “window of opportunity” to build up the capabilities already agreed upon.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has previously stated that the militarization of Europe would require Russia to take additional measures to guarantee its national security.

As the implications of these developments continue to play out in the military arena, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda announced on July 9 that NATO leadership has converted the mandate of the Baltic air policing mission from air patrol to a combat footing.

The day before this decision, leaders attending the NATO summit in Ankara pointed to the “long-term threat Russia poses to Euro-Atlantic security and stability” in a joint declaration.

NATO has repeatedly expressed concerns over a potential conflict with Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged member states not to be “naive” about threats coming from Russia and to increase their defense spending. Similarly, the commander of the German Army, Christian Freuding, asserted on June 12 that his country must “be ready for a Russian attack” by 2029 or sooner, stating, “We must be ready for war.”

In contrast, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko claimed in a June 22 interview with the Izvestia newspaper that NATO and the European Union are preparing for a military conflict with Russia on the horizon of 2030. Grushko noted that from a military perspective, there is now little difference between NATO and the EU regarding aggressive ambitions toward Moscow, and that their main objective is to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.

The Moscow administration has repeatedly emphasized that it has no intention of attacking Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that there are no geopolitical, economic, or military reasons to fight the alliance. Nevertheless, Putin has also stated that “all NATO countries are virtually at war with Russia.”

Last year, representatives of NATO countries approved a declaration agreeing to raise military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Under this target, 3.5% of spending is projected to go directly to the military budget, while 1.5% is to be allocated indirectly to defense through cybersecurity and the modernization of highways.

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Zelenskyy announces sweeping Ukrainian cabinet shakeup as Prime Minister Sviridenko resigns

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13/07/2026

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced a sweeping structural overhaul of the government, confirming that a new prime minister will soon take office.

Following the announcement, the Ukrainian leader held a series of meetings over a two-and-a-half-hour period with potential candidates positioned to succeed Yulia Sviridenko as prime minister.

“Political strategy is changing”

Writing on his Telegram channel, Zelenskyy announced that the structure of the cabinet of ministers will change and that Sviridenko, who is stepping down from her post, will be assigned to a new role.

The Ukrainian president stated that the country is renewing its political strategy. Under the new approach, specific individuals with extensive experience will be put in charge of each priority foreign policy direction to implement agreements reached at the leadership level and to meet the expectations of the Ukrainian people.

Approximately one hour after Zelenskyy’s statement, Sviridenko confirmed her departure from the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine via a message on social media.

Thanking the president for his high valuation of her work, Sviridenko stated that she and Zelenskyy had discussed future steps.

Sviridenko began her career in the Ukrainian government in 2019 as Deputy Minister of Economy. Between 2020 and 2021, she served as deputy head of the presidential office, during which time she participated in negotiations regarding the Donbas.

In November 2021, she assumed control of economic management as First Deputy Prime Minister. In the spring of 2025, she signed a resource agreement with the US on behalf of Ukraine.

Zelenksyy proposed that Sviridenko lead the government in July 2025, and the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, approved her candidacy with 262 votes in a session held on July 17, 2025.

Prior to Sviridenko, Denys Shmyhal had led the cabinet since March 2020. He currently serves as the Minister of Energy.

Priority targets of the new cabinet established

Zelenskyy outlined the primary areas of focus for the renewed government, listing relations with the US—specifically licensing agreements for the production of Patriot systems and security cooperation—as top priorities.

Other core objectives include the European anti-ballistic missile project, the European Union accession process, relations with neighboring states—particularly Poland and Hungary—cooperation with the Middle East, the Gulf countries, and China, as well as relations with international organizations.

The Ukrainian leader also stressed the need to strengthen operations along the front lines and border regions, increase weapons supplies, complete winter preparations, accelerate the transformation of state-owned enterprises, and implement agreements reached with partners regarding the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Who could succeed Sviridenko as prime minister?

The last major reshuffle in the Ukrainian government took place a year ago, with Sviridenko assuming the premiership in July 2025.

Under Ukrainian law, the candidate for prime minister must be proposed by the majority coalition in the Verkhovna Rada.

Once appointed, the prime minister submits the majority of the cabinet members to parliament for approval.

Russian President Vladimir Putin previously stated that the only legitimate power in Ukraine is the Verkhovna Rada. According to Putin’s assessment, the only authority qualified to participate in peace talks is the speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, asserting that Zelenskyy lacks legitimacy and therefore has no authority to sign any document.

According to a report by the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, potential candidates being considered for the premiership include:

  • Sergiy Koretskyy, Chairman of the Board of Naftogaz and Director of Ukrnafta
  • Denys Shmyhal, Minister of Energy
  • Mykhailo Fedorov, Minister of Defense
  • Ihor Terekhov, Mayor of Kharkiv

Zelenskyy announced that he met with all of these officials, as well as Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, during the day.

Sources familiar with the matter who spoke to RBC-Ukraine stated that the president’s decision to renew the government came as a surprise to many. The sources informing the publication also put forward Koretskyy’s name for the premiership.

Sources speaking to Bloomberg also pointed to Koretskyy alongside Shmyhal. The agency reported that both Koretskyy and Shmyhal possess extensive experience in the energy sector, which partially explains their candidacy to succeed Sviridenko.

Meanwhile, Verkhovna Rada Deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak reported that the parliamentary vote on the prime minister’s resignation could take place on July 13 or 14.

Zheleznyak stated that following this vote, the entire government will function in an interim capacity, with Shmyhal temporarily leading the administration in his capacity as deputy prime minister.

According to information shared by Zheleznyak, Sviridenko will become Ukraine’s new ambassador to the US. The Financial Times also reported, citing two sources, that the outgoing prime minister will be appointed to this post.

Zelenskyy stated that he had offered Sviridenko the opportunity to head a new and important direction in relations with a key partner, though he did not share specific details regarding which country or organization this would involve.

Subsequently, a report by the Interfax-Ukraine agency, citing sources, stated that Olga Stefanishyna, who currently serves as Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US, wishes to end her diplomatic service due to personal reasons.

Stefanishyna has held the post for less than a year, with Zelenskyy having signed the decree for her appointment in August 2025.

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