Connect with us

Diplomacy

A new chapter in the ill-fated destiny of the Caucasus: Notes from J.D. Vance’s diplomatic foray into Baku and Yerevan

Published

on

The Strategic Partnership Charter, signed between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and United States Vice President J.D. Vance, has elevated the relations between the two states from a mere declaration of intent to the level of a formal, unshakable “covenant.” This document symbolizes not only a rapprochement between the two nations but also the definitive entry of the region into the strategic orbit of the NATO axis. As the American Embassy in Baku has articulated, Washington is acting with a resolute determination to “transform the dormant, gargantuan potential” of the South Caucasus into a lived reality.

The signed charter functions as a foundational instrument, regulating not just the current state of cooperation but its trajectory for decades to come. Among the core pillars of the document is the mutual and unconditional recognition of “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” This constitutes a high-level certification that the era of “frozen conflicts” in the region has reached its conclusion.

Provisions such as the development of transport routes and the establishment of partnerships in strategic sectors signal that the text will not remain a mere paper exercise; rather, it heralds a massive surge in ground-level infrastructure and an onslaught of American capital into the South Caucasus.

A Logistical Revolution: The Middle Corridor and the “Trump Route”

The concrete provisions of the charter focus heavily on regional connectivity. Two monumental projects take center stage here: the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) and the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity).

The Middle Corridor is a commercial artery originating in China and extending through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to Turkey and Europe—completely “bypassing” Russia. According to 2025 data, cargo flow along this route has seen a staggering 62% increase compared to 2024, reaching 4.5 million tons. For Western logistics firms, this path has become a far more profitable and secure alternative to the “Northern Route” passing through Russia. Indeed, the target is for cargo originating in China to reach Europe via this route in a mere 12 days.

The most critical link in this vast network is the 44-kilometer Zangezur Corridor, which will traverse Armenian territory. Following an agreement mediated personally by Donald Trump at the White House on August 8, 2025, the management of this corridor was transferred to the United States for a term of 99 years. This passage, dubbed the “Trump Route,” will connect Nakhchivan with the Azerbaijani mainland, thereby ending the geographical discontinuity of the Turkic republics—or, conversely, resulting in the encirclement of Russia from the south. This derelict line, where tracks had been uprooted since 1991, is now being reconstructed under the control of an American company, with an ownership structure where 30% of profits go to Armenia, 30% to Azerbaijan, and 40% to the American operator.[1]

The Influx of American Capital into the Caucasus

The economic dimension of the charter can be read as something far beyond conventional trade agreements—it is an all-out influx of American capital into Baku. A “digital transformation” is planned with the direct participation of both public and private sector capital from both nations. While cooperation is envisioned in high-tech fields such as artificial intelligence, data processing centers, and the aerospace industry, this process will be bolstered by joint research and development (R&D) activities and innovation platforms. Furthermore, technical support initiatives aimed at cultivating a skilled workforce will transform Azerbaijan’s human capital.

Under the heading of energy security, Azerbaijan’s diversification of supply routes and the support for the transit of mineral resources to global markets are vital for Europe, which has largely abandoned Russian oil and gas due to unilateral sanctions. In the realms of defense and security, there is an unprecedented convergence: the direct sale of defense industry products, joint military exercises and studies, the strengthening of cybersecurity, and humanitarian demining activities all aim for the Azerbaijani military’s “full alignment with NATO standards.”

Nuclear Rupture in Yerevan: The End of Metsamor and Dependence on the West

J.D. Vance’s visit to Yerevan, just one day prior to his arrival in Baku, represents the heaviest blow dealt to Russia’s presence in the Caucasus. The civil nuclear cooperation agreement signed between the US and Armenia fundamentally undermines Yerevan’s energy ties with Russia. The US has pledged up to $9 billion in investment for the Armenian nuclear sector. The primary focus of this investment is the replacement of the Soviet-era Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (VVER-440 reactors)—long the subject of safety debates—with American-designed “Small Modular Reactors” (SMRs).

While Metsamor meets 40% of Armenia’s electricity needs, this partnership with the Russian company Rosatom had begun to be viewed as a “strategic burden” for Yerevan. In his briefing in Yerevan, Vance noted that an initial $5 billion in exports and $4 billion in long-term technical support were on the way.

On the other hand, the “North-South Corridor” project, nurtured by Russia with great hope, has effectively been rendered obsolete with the transition of Zangezur to American control. Moscow had initially envisioned that the control of this corridor would remain with its own border guards, but that plan collapsed with the declaration signed in Washington in August 2025.

The roots of Russia’s current defeat extend back to the 2004 Adjara crisis and the subsequent vacillating stances. Those who remained silent when Saakashvili seized Adjara in 2004, and those who failed to protect the 12th Military Base in Batumi, have today completely lost their influence over Karabakh and Zangezur. Adjara is an autonomous region located in southwestern Georgia, on the Turkish border. Aslan Abashidze, who governed the region from the 1990s until 2004, had established a pro-Russian feudal administration independent of the central Tbilisi government. Mikheil Saakashvili, who came to power in Georgia following the Western-backed “Rose Revolution” of 2003, re-established central authority over Adjara in 2004, forcing Abashidze to seek asylum in Russia.

Had Russia pursued a more assertive diplomatic and military line at that time, the 2014 Maidan events might never have occurred, nor would the Caucasus have shifted so drastically toward the Western orbit. Just as the 1940 British and French plans to bomb Baku (Operation Pike) posed a threat then, the American private military companies now establishing themselves in the region represent an equally “horrific” security vulnerability for Russia and Iran.[2]

The signatures penned at the White House on August 8, 2025, began to bear fruit at the start of 2026. Construction of the 224-kilometer Kars-Dilucu railway line was commenced by Kalyon Construction, while Azerbaijan completed the Horadiz-Ağbend line. The 1,000-strong American private military force to be stationed in the region is likely the precursor to much larger military bases, air defense systems, and radar networks.

It may be useful here to refer to the statements of Russian politician and diplomat Nikolay Platonkin, published in recent months in Moskovsky Komsomolets. According to Platonkin, who notes that Azerbaijan’s stance toward Russia is not new but the result of decades of policy that Moscow chose to ignore, the current situation between Moscow and Baku resembles “a typical Turkish soap opera scenario where the head of a respectable family is revealed to have been a mafia leader with a secret second life for years.”

Platonkin, who served as the head of the Armenia desk at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs between 1998 and 2003, stated that Russia has made the same mistake with Azerbaijan as it did with Georgia.

“When Heydar Aliyev came to power, replacing the ultra-nationalist Abulfaz Elchibey, everyone in Moscow rejoiced. Yet throughout this time, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy remained consistently anti-Russian. Within the CIS, there were two groups from the beginning: those who wanted integration (Belarus, Armenia, Central Asia) and those who were anti-Russian and sought to strengthen ties with the West. This second group formed the GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova) alliance. Azerbaijan was always a part of this group,” Platonkin said.

According to Platonkin, the reason Azerbaijan had not joined NATO until now was not a lack of desire, but rather its exclusion due to the Karabakh conflict. The diplomat recalled that Baku, with Western assistance, built infrastructure to export Caspian Sea energy resources by bypassing Russia and eventually forced Moscow out of the vital Gabala Radar Station by demanding exorbitant rent.

Arguing that Armenia, by contrast, had always been a loyal ally, Platonkin made the following claims:

“We have a joint air defense system with Armenia. The Armenians transferred their defense industry facilities to us in exchange for their debts. Armenia’s entire energy sector was privatized by Russia. We saved the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, built during the Soviet era and producing half of the country’s electricity, despite Western demands for its closure. There was even a time when Yerevan paid the salaries of Russian soldiers and officers from its own budget so the base could remain when Moscow was not making payments.”

He further claimed that the plan to place the Zangezur corridor under US control was not new; a similar plan was signed in 2001 at Key West between then-leaders Robert Kocharyan and Heydar Aliyev, but Russia had blocked it.

Platonkin concluded by saying: “NATO is already in the Caspian. Militarily, Azerbaijan is a part of Turkey, and Turkey is a NATO country. Meanwhile, our people are still muttering, ‘Britain wants to infiltrate the Caspian.’ They are already there! Let us impose a tax on the money Azerbaijani workers send home, just as Trump did to the Mexicans. Let’s see how they treat us then.”

Notes:

[1] Rail gauges are not standardized globally. 1435 mm (Standard Gauge): Used in Turkey, most of Europe, the US, and China. 1520 mm (Russian Gauge): Used in former Soviet Union countries (Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, etc.). This discrepancy creates a logistical bottleneck, as trains must wait at borders for their wheelsets (bogies) to be swapped.

[2] The 1940 Anglo-French Plan to Bomb Baku (Operation Pike): A secret military plan prepared by Britain and France in the early stages of WWII (during the period when Germany had not yet attacked the USSR, but had signed a non-aggression pact). The Allies planned to bomb the oil fields in Baku to sever the flow of Soviet oil to Nazi Germany. The plan was shelved following the German invasion of France.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Diplomacy

Anthropic uncovers Claude use by Iranian, Houthi, and Russian units

Published

1 day ago

on

11/09/2026

By

Artificial intelligence company Anthropic has disclosed attempted “abuses” of its Claude AI model ranging from conventional weapons to biological research by state-linked entities, foreign intelligence services, and cybercrime networks, publishing the findings in a detailed threat intelligence report.

A significant portion of the report comprised the development of guided missile software by the Houthis in northern Yemen and the conversion of the model into a military reconnaissance tool by Iran-linked actors seeking to target US naval assets in the Middle East.

Covering the period between December 2025 and August 2026, the report shared details of activities detected across seven primary areas: cyberattacks, influence operations, mass surveillance, conventional weapons development, biological risks, and unauthorised model distillation.

The company announced that it had terminated all accounts violating its rules and shared the resulting data with relevant international counterparts.

According to findings by Anthropic’s Threat Intelligence unit, a weapons cell based in northern Yemen, where the Houthis operate, substituted human software engineers with the Claude Code system across three distinct missile development programmes.

These efforts comprised a tactical rocket equipped with a terminal guidance system powered by a commercial smartphone processor, a multi-stage ballistic missile with a target range exceeding 2,000 kilometres, and missile designs carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle.

The cell utilised the artificial intelligence to adapt open-source autopilot software to the smartphone processor, optimize flight control algorithms, and compile firmware.

Structuring their Claude accounts like a virtual engineering team, the Houthis assigned one account to write code, another to conduct research, and a third to review and audit the written code.

The report noted that the group conducted an actual test launch with a guided rocket in the Yemeni theatre.

Immediately following the failure of the live-fire test, the actors were documented returning to the Claude platform within hours to upload telemetry data and diagnose the cause of the malfunction.

The cell was observed successfully compiling offline simulation tools capable of operating independently even if access to Claude were severed.

Iran tracked US warships and personnel

Another military case detailed in the report involved attempts by Iran-linked cyber actors to target US naval forces in the Middle East.

These actors were found to have scraped open-source military data to draft operational targeting manuals directed against American warships and personnel.

Iran extracted name rosters of American military personnel from the captions of publicly accessible military photographs, monitored vessel and aircraft transponder data, authored code to scan commercial satellite imagery, and mapped vulnerabilities in maritime satellite communication terminals.

Other networks linked to the Tehran government were determined to have developed domestic and regional surveillance systems. A Qom-based unit produced a malicious web browser extension disguised as a prayer-time application to harvest credentials from social network users, funneling the data into a central case management system designated “Arman”.

Additionally, official Iranian institutions reportedly cloned authors’ voices using AI and operated multilingual disinformation networks to lay the groundwork for the supreme leadership succession.

Russia also used it for an autonomous kamikaze drone swarm

The report stated that an independent Russia-based software team developed fully autonomous kamikaze uncrewed aerial vehicle swarm software dubbed “DronDoc” or “Serafim”.

Affiliated with a university connected to the Russian Academy of Sciences, the team was said to have trained the artificial intelligence to distinguish between friendly and hostile elements using footage retrieved from the Ukrainian battlefield.

The developed system was designed with the capability to select targets, execute live human classification, and issue detonation commands without requiring human intervention, with simulations run directly against coordinates in the Donetsk region.

Meanwhile, the Russian-origin “Midnight Blizzard” group targeted the Ukrainian drone supply chain and staged attacks aimed at foreign officials and drone engineers by compromising hotel Wi-Fi networks.

A procurement manager stationed at a design bureau in Moscow was also discovered drafting plans via Claude to circumvent European sanctions. The individual was recorded assembling fraudulent tender and logistics correspondence to transport German-made magnetometers, space-grade photovoltaic sheets, and military aviation oxygen systems into Russia through intermediary firms based in China and Hong Kong.

Biological threats and pathogen engineering

The report disclosed five concrete cases regarding the deployment of artificial intelligence in hazardous biological research. Virologists attached to a military research institute were documented using AI for gain-of-function research aimed at enhancing the transmissibility and immune-evasion capabilities of the mosquito-borne Chikungunya virus.

Similarly, experimental designs were prepared to adapt the H5 avian influenza variant, which carries a 50% mortality rate in humans, to mammals and confer airborne transmission capabilities, while immune-evasion mechanisms of pathogens from the smallpox virus family were modelled.

The identities of paralytic neurotoxins subject to export control lists and haemorrhagic fever virus proteins featured on the World Health Organization’s priority epidemic list were deliberately masked and submitted to the AI for analysis.

In addition, a consultant working on behalf of the Malian State Intelligence Service designed a mass surveillance platform designated “Lakana 360” with the assistance of Claude.

The system was designed to monitor approximately 25 million SIM cards registered across three mobile operators in the country without requiring court orders, intercept audio recordings, and cross-reference records with biometric databases.

Separately, leading Chinese artificial intelligence firms including Alibaba, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Zhipu, and Xiaomi were alleged to have initiated hundreds of millions of unauthorised sessions to extract the logical reasoning chains of Claude models. Moonshot and DeepSeek platforms reportedly routed their own users’ queries secretly through Claude, in the process exposing Chinese police surveillance feeds from hundreds of cameras covering military facilities in Chengdu, internal credentials of Chinese state-owned enterprises, and live database access codes connected to the Russian Defence Ministry to third parties.

Türkiye detail in the report

The report also detailed cases involving the abuse of the Claude AI model, incorporating findings concerning an Istanbul-based technology firm.

In case GTG-84005 of the intelligence report, an operation aimed at commercial election manipulation targeting voters in Malaysia was intercepted.

According to the findings, the operation operated under the guise of a startup providing cyber intelligence and counter-disinformation tools. Anthropic determined that Istanbul-based BBS Bilisim Teknolojileri was behind the infrastructure.

According to documents, the company marketed the architecture as a paid influence operation service styled as a “military-grade, AI-powered, real-time political operations ecosystem”.

Managing roughly 1,000 synthetic X accounts, the system processed demographic and electoral data across 222 parliamentary constituencies in Malaysia, calibrating targeting around sensitive social fault lines including ethnicity, religion, and the monarchy.

The network also circulated content from Russian and Chinese state media masquerading as independent Malaysian news via an artificial media outlet designated “Malaysia Pulse”, while manufacturing fraudulent intelligence dossiers targeting an opposition politician and civil society organisations.

Anthropic reported that the network received a request to generate 1 million artificial impressions in support of the Malaysian Prime Minister and sought to secure a contract with the country’s national communications regulatory authority.

While no evidence emerged that the undertaking succeeded, the associated user accounts were closed and operational digital indicators were shared.

Continue Reading

Diplomacy

EU pursues closer ties with Israel on space and air defence

Published

3 days ago

on

09/09/2026

By

The EU is turning to Israel to bolster its new initiatives in high-tech air defence and space capabilities.

Shimrit Maman, head of the Israel Space Agency, travelled to Brussels this week and met on Tuesday with European Commissioner for Startups, Research and Innovation Ekaterina Zaharieva to discuss key sectors, including artificial intelligence and robotics.

The visit took place ahead of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first major speech on space, scheduled for Thursday at a summit in Paris.

In the speech, Von der Leyen is expected to warn against mounting hostilities and emphasise the necessity of strengthening Europe’s presence in space.

“It’s very hard to do everything by yourself,” Maman told Politico, adding that the militarization of space is “already happening, it’s just we are not aware of the extent,” and noting that allies are showing growing interest in “dual-use” technologies intended for both civilian and defence purposes:

“One thing we’re working on is early-warning systems. For example, during the last wave [of missile attacks] with Iran, we saw this very clearly. How we were getting the alerts to all the civilians in Israel, and that made the casualties so low. This is part of the system. We’re working on a very holistic view, where you can alert in advance, the system alerts the citizens.”

Following several years of effective disengagement caused by political tensions surrounding the invasion of Gaza, the EU has recently begun forging closer military and technological ties with Israel through a series of agreements.

Competition from Washington and strategic rivalry with Moscow and Beijing have nevertheless underlined the requirement for allies possessing sophisticated industrial capacity.

In 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen backed calls by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to create an EU-funded air defence shield.

Three senior officials involved in the discussions said, however, that the plans stalled after officials in the Commission and several national capitals concluded that the project would require reliance on Israeli air defence technology, which was considered too sensitive one year into the Gaza conflict.

Yet Israel’s Rafael, which is expanding its European operations significantly, has now confirmed that it will open a factory to manufacture the Iron Dome air defence system at a former Volkswagen plant in Germany.

One week ago, Greece signed a 3 billion euro agreement with the Israel Ministry of Defense.

The deal provides for the establishment of a new multi-layered air defence network designed to shoot down drones, hostile jets, and rockets.

“We see everything integrating into this multi-layer defence approach,” Maman said, highlighting satellite imagery and artificial intelligence modelling as primary focal points for joint development efforts:

“I’m not only seeing defence as ballistic missiles from Iran… think about a fire, a flash flood or even a long drought… we have a proven track record, and we’re getting really good results.”

Continue Reading

Diplomacy

UK reassures US that new Israeli settlement sanctions are symbolic

Published

4 days ago

on

08/09/2026

By

The UK has reportedly engaged in behind-the-scenes talks to avoid a backlash from the US over anti-Israel sanctions scheduled for announcement today.

According to a report by Bloomberg, Andy Burnham’s government is expected to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank today.

Burnham is seeking to pursue a firmer stance on an issue of high importance to the governing Labour Party, though one that risks angering US President Donald Trump.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will unveil a new sanctions regime targeting Israel but limited to Jewish settlements in the West Bank, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Burnham and Trump spoke by telephone on Monday, the Prime Minister’s Office said. A statement noted that the two leaders discussed a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinian territories.

The discussion suggests that Burnham used the call to notify Trump that sanctions against Israel were imminent.

The proposals under review included a new sanctions regime with measures to block the exchange of goods and services with Israeli settlements.

Miliband also evaluated expanding existing human rights sanctions to encompass the blocking of aid, which has drawn criticism for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The Foreign Secretary further considered explicitly endorsing the International Court of Justice’s non-binding 2024 opinion that declared Israel’s occupation of territory currently recognised by the UK as the State of Palestine to be unlawful.

Even so, UK officials fear the announcement could cause an early setback in Burnham’s relationship with Trump.

To defuse a backlash from the Trump administration, British diplomats privately informed the US that the sanctions are largely symbolic and will have no tangible impact on the UK’s broader trade or security ties with Israel, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

The proposals were drawn up after Israel decided to issue tenders for the construction of 1,200 settlement housing units in an area of the West Bank.

Disputes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians have intensified in recent months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a difficult battle to retain his seat in a general election scheduled for 27 October.

Burnham joined the leaders of Canada and five European governments, including France, Germany, and Italy, in signing a statement that condemned the housing plan as “unacceptable” and urged Netanyahu to withdraw the tender.

In a separate statement, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz condemned a call by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir for “nightly assassinations” in Gaza.

Burnham is eager to demonstrate early to the Labour Party that he is adopting a more critical approach toward Israel than his predecessor, Keir Starmer.

Although Starmer hardened his stance against Israel during his two years in office, including by formally recognising the State of Palestine, his initial refusal to demand that Netanyahu halt military operations in Gaza divided the party.

This division led to a decline in Labour’s poll ratings and boosted electoral gains for the Green Party across the country.

Burnham’s return to Parliament last month led to Starmer’s resignation. Burnham apologised for Labour’s handling of Israel’s military operation in Gaza under his predecessor, stating that the party “did not adopt the right stance”.

Last month, Burnham’s new Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, who faced intense competition from a Muslim independent candidate in his northeast London constituency at the last general election, stated that Israel had fallen “short” of international standards.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told the BBC’s “Newsday” programme that there would “undoubtedly” be a US response.

Accusing the Labour Party of “discriminating against the Israeli government”, Huckabee said: “It is like throwing a rock and not knowing where it lands. The UK is a sovereign country and can do as it pleases, but so is the US.”

Republican Florida Congressman Randy Fine also warned that British firms would be barred from doing business with local governments in the state if sanctions were imposed.

In a post on X, Fine said: “Florida has made its stance clear. Any company—or country—that boycotts Israel will be boycotted by Florida.”

Labour MPs and Jewish groups have warned the government that any sanctions against the settlements could amount to a “de facto boycott” of Israeli goods and compromise the safety of British Jews.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey