A new public opinion poll published in Israel reveals that the political balance of power has shifted against the current ruling coalition ahead of the country’s upcoming general election.

According to the poll broadcast by Channel 13 television, the anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to secure the majority required to form a government in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.

The current governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to win only 50 seats in the 120-member legislature.

The poll results indicate that the Yashar Party, led by former Chief of General Staff Eisenkot, would win 21 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud party would retain 22 seats, remaining the largest single party in the Knesset.

However, the three parties securing the next highest number of seats behind Likud are all aligned with the anti-Netanyahu bloc.

Opposition parties secure majority to form government

The survey projects that former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Birlikte (Together) Party would win 15 seats, while the left-leaning Democrats Party, led by Yair Golan, would secure 11 seats.

The Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by Avigdor Liberman, is projected to win 10 seats, while a political alliance formed by former Minister Yoaz Hendel and National Unity Party member Hili Tropper is expected to secure four seats in the Knesset.

Channel 13 reported that this projected outcome gives the anti-Netanyahu parties a “clear majority” to form a new government.

In contrast, within Netanyahu’s current ruling coalition, the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party is projected to win eight seats, while the Shas party is expected to secure seven.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) party is projected to win seven seats, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party is expected to win six.

Commenting on the poll results, the Haaretz newspaper noted: “If the election were held today, Netanyahu’s governing coalition would win a total of only 50 seats.”

Arab parties not required for new coalition

According to the poll data, the Arab parties Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al are projected to win five and four seats, respectively. However, the anti-Netanyahu bloc would not require their support to form a new government.

Another Arab party, along with the Blue and White party led by Benny Gantz, is projected to fall below the 3.25% electoral threshold, failing to enter the Knesset.

The general election is scheduled to take place on October 27. While this coalition of parties, referred to in Israel as the “Zionist opposition bloc,” opposes Netanyahu politically, it aligns with the current government on security policies.

These opposition parties, characterized as centrist or right-leaning, hold views similar to those of current government members on issues such as the military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as military action against Iran.

61% of Israelis oppose Netanyahu candidacy

A study published last month by the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute also showed that a large majority of the public views Netanyahu’s political future unfavorably.

According to the study, 61% of surveyed Israelis believe Netanyahu should not run in the upcoming election.

The proportion of those supporting the prime minister’s re-candidacy remains at 35%. Netanyahu continues to stand trial on corruption and bribery charges, with hearings ongoing amid repeated delays.

Conscription crisis intensifies early election pressure

An ongoing dispute among coalition partners over mandatory military service for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews is further increasing pressure on the government.

The continued exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service has drawn sharp criticism, with opposition parties accusing the government of placing the entire burden of the war on secular reservists.

The high command of the Israel Defense Forces has warned that the reserve forces risk collapse due to the unresolved crisis.

This ongoing friction has fueled calls for the dissolution of the Knesset and the holding of early elections, which are otherwise scheduled for 2026. In an effort to establish a political alternative, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid decided in April to merge their parties.

The Houthis are accelerating preparations for attacks on tankers in the Red Sea—one of the world’s most critical maritime trade corridors, located at the opposite end of the Persian Gulf.

According to a report by the Reuters news agency, representatives of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are operating in Yemen to coordinate a potential blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the primary entry point for vessels into the Red Sea.

A source close to the Houthis reported that the group has finalized its attack preparations by deploying missiles and drones in high-altitude areas near the strait and is currently awaiting orders to launch the operation.

Three sources familiar with the matter stated that the directive to attack would be issued if the US conducts strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, as threatened by Donald Trump.

Two senior Iranian officials and another regional source noted that the Iranian leadership has discussed the plan to block entry and exit points to the Red Sea and has conveyed the relevant instructions to the Houthis.

Blocking the Bab al-Mandab Strait in addition to the Strait of Hormuz risks dealing a severe blow to global oil and trade flows. Following previous disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia had redirected approximately 70% of its oil exports via pipelines to its ports on the Red Sea coast.

In the event of a direct conflict with the Houthis, the Riyadh administration could find itself unable to transport oil to Asian countries, which represent its most critical buyers.

Currently, approximately 7% of global energy resources are transported via the Red Sea route.

Four years ago, the Houthis targeted Saudi Arabian territory but subsequently suspended their attacks under a ceasefire agreement.

When the group began targeting civilian vessels in the Red Sea again in 2024, many shipping companies diverted their routes around the southern tip of Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, a shift that lengthened delivery times and increased transportation costs.

Following US bombardments of Houthi positions during the final months of the Joe Biden administration and particularly after Trump’s return to the White House, vessel traffic in the Red Sea had intensified once again.

However, the Houthis, who accused Saudi Arabia on Monday of bombing airports, launched fresh missile strikes against the kingdom’s territory this week. Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at the risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, evaluated the escalating tension:

“An escalation in conflict that spills over into Red Sea export infrastructure and shipping would jeopardize the only major alternative oil export route from the region.”

Two regional sources close to the Saudi government stated that the Riyadh administration takes the threats from Iran and the Houthis extremely seriously and is aware that the Yemeni group’s actions regarding the Red Sea are being taken in close coordination with Iran.

US President Trump, who on Tuesday reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports, had previously threatened to bomb power plants in the country.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Trump has also been considering the option of seizing control of islands along the Strait of Hormuz, including Kharg Island, which hosts the port handling 90% of Iran’s oil and petroleum product exports.

Dr. Ahmed Moustafa, Director & Founder, Asia Center for Studies & Translation, Egypt

When Lionel Messi struck his record-ext ninth consecutive World Cup goal to drag Argentina past Egypt in a bruising Round of 16 encounter, the roar from the 80,000 fans inside Houston’s NRG Stadium was matched only by the quiet sigh of relief in FIFA’s Zurich headquarters. The 39-year-old Argentine is not merely a player; he is a walking, dribbling balance sheet. And his continued presence in the tournament may be worth as much as $800 million to the sport’s global governing body and its commercial partners.

But beneath the spectacle of the expanded 48-team, 104-match tournament—the most nakedly commercial World Cup in history—runs a parallel narrative of governance gaps, betting economies operating in the shadows, and questions about whether football’s governing body is stewarding the sport or simply monetizing it.

The Messi dividend

FIFA’s 2023–2026 commercial cycle is budgeted to generate a record $13 billion in revenue, with the World Cup itself contributing $8.9 billion. Broadcasting rights account for $3.9 billion, marketing rights for $1.8 billion, and ticketing and hospitality for a staggering $3.0 billion—more than triple the Qatar 2022 figure.

Yet these projections rest on a fragile assumption: that the tournament’s biggest stars remain on the pitch long enough to sustain global viewership. Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are not merely athletes; they are global brands that FIFA and its sponsors—Adidas, Coca-Cola, Visa, Aramco, and others—have bet heavily upon. Industry analysts estimate Adidas’ FIFA partnership alone at $800 million through 2030, a contract whose value is inextricably linked to the presence of its highest-profile ambassador, Messi.

Had Argentina fallen to Egypt in the Round of 16, the financial aftershocks would have extended far beyond ticket sales. FIFA’s new dynamic pricing model has pushed some match tickets to ten times their Qatar 2022 equivalents, with resale platform commissions of 15% flowing directly to the federation. An early exit for Argentina would have cratered demand for quarter-final and semi-final tickets in the U.S. markets where Messi’s Inter Miami has built a devoted following. Digital engagement metrics—already up 130% in impressions and 485% in video views over 2022—would likely have tapered.

University of Liverpool football finance expert Professor Kieran Maguire notes that FIFA “will go to any length to have the global brands of football at their main events.” The federation’s decision to defer Cristiano Ronaldo’s red-card suspension and its reversal of Folarin Balogun’s ban ahead of the U.S. Round of 16 match—reportedly after presidential pressure—have already chipped away at the tournament’s integrity, according to critics. Egypt manager Hossam Hassan went further, calling the Argentina-Egypt encounter “completely rigged,” a claim FIFA’s chief refereeing officer Pierluigi Collina has dismissed.

Testing, transparency, and the commercial conflict

Against this backdrop, questions have been raised about the uniformity of FIFA’s anti-doping regime. FIFA has expanded its partnership with the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) for the 2026 tournament, promising “a strong, transparent anti-doping program that players and fans can trust.” All samples are analyzed exclusively by WADA-accredited laboratories complying with ISO/IEC 17025 and International Standard for Laboratories requirements.

Yet the procedural rigor has not silenced skepticism. Observers note that while FIFA’s regulations are aligned with the World Anti-Doping Code, the practical application of testing—particularly around high-value commercial assets—raises governance concerns. The organization’s financial health depends on stars remaining marketable. With Messi earning an estimated $70 million annually on the pitch and a comparable sum from endorsements, the commercial incentive to ensure marquee players remain available is structural, if not conspiratorial.

Critics argue that without full public disclosure of testing schedules, sample selection methodologies, and results management protocols for star athletes, the anti-doping program risks the perception of selectivity. The intersection of multi-billion-dollar sponsorship contracts and athlete availability creates a conflict of interest that FIFA has yet to adequately address.

The shadow economy of the betting boom

If FIFA’s formal revenue streams are transparent in their accounting, the informal economy swirling around the tournament is decidedly less so. The 2026 World Cup sits at the center of a global betting market projected to handle between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion in legal U.S. wagers alone, with industry hold rates of 7–9% generating $197–$387 million in gross gaming revenue for licensed operators.

But these figures represent only the regulated surface. Gaming Compliance International estimates that more than half a trillion dollars will be gambled on the tournament globally, with a significant portion flowing through unlicensed crypto operators and illegal prediction markets. These shadow platforms operate without anti-money laundering controls, consumer protections, or regulatory oversight, exploiting the World Cup’s global viewership to target fans through scam websites and unregulated wagering.

FIFA is not a passive observer of this economy. In January 2026, the federation appointed Stats Perform as its first official worldwide distributor of betting data and betting streaming rights, exclusively distributing live streams and data for all 104 matches to licensed sportsbooks. In May, it named Betano—owned by Kaizen Gaming—as an Official Tournament Supporter for Europe and South America, marking the betting operator’s third consecutive FIFA tournament partnership.

The question is not whether FIFA profits from betting—it does, through data rights, sponsorships, and the audience engagement that wagering drives—but whether it adequately polices the ecosystem it monetizes. FIFA’s own regulations contain detailed match-fixing provisions, but regulatory gaps and the rapid growth of online gambling allow misconduct to persist through the exploitation of underpaid athletes and weak implementation. The 2015 corruption scandal, which saw officials allegedly receive more than $150 million in bribes for broadcasting and commercial rights, exposed how FIFA’s revenue streams could be systematically diverted for personal enrichment.

The broadcasting access gap

For all its commercial success, the 2026 tournament has highlighted a growing tension between revenue maximization and public access. FIFA has struck broadcast deals covering more than 175 territories, with media rights revenues forecast to reach $3.8 billion, a 22% increase from 2022.

Yet the expansion to 48 teams and 104 matches—while enriching FIFA—has diluted the per-game value of broadcast rights by 19%, and the total volume of global broadcast deals has dropped 11%, from 495 in 2022 to 443 in 2026. In Asia, regional partnership agreements plummeted from 60 to 24, forcing FIFA to accept lower fees to avoid blackouts—notably in China, where the CCTV deal dropped from a reported $250 million to $60 million.

More troubling for football’s global democratic ethos is the erosion of free-to-air access. While European regulations mandate some public service broadcaster coverage, many qualified nations—particularly in the Global South—have seen matches locked behind paywalls or unavailable entirely. FIFA’s “preferred platform” agreements with TikTok and YouTube allow broadcasters to stream select content, but these are commercial arrangements designed to drive engagement and ad revenue, not to guarantee universal access.

For countries that invested years in qualification campaigns, the deprivation of free domestic airing represents a broken social contract. The tournament’s $80.1 billion in projected gross economic output—$30.5 billion for the U.S. alone—does little for nations whose fans cannot watch their own teams compete.

The development deficit

FIFA is a nonprofit under Swiss law, and its budget pledges substantial reinvestment: $2.25 billion for the FIFA Forward program, $660 million for the Football Development Fund, and $3.86 billion total for Development & Education across the 2023–2026 cycle. Official documents highlight projects from Rwanda’s $4.7 million national team accommodation facility to women’s football initiatives across Concacaf.

But the scale of these investments pales beside the commercial extraction. The 2026 World Cup will generate roughly $3.0 billion in ticketing and hospitality revenue alone—three times the entire development budget for the four-year cycle. Critics argue that for every dollar FIFA spends on grassroots football, it collects ten from the sport’s poorest communities through broadcast and betting margins they cannot afford.

The result is a two-tiered global football economy: elite players and wealthy federations harvest the commercial bounty, while early skillful players in under-resourced nations lack pitches, coaching, and pathways to professionalism. FIFA’s governance model—centralizing revenue in Zurich while distributing development funds through member associations with spotty accountability—has repeatedly been criticized for inefficiency and opacity. The 2015 corruption scandal revealed not just individual malfeasance but a structural tendency to prioritize commercial rights over sporting development.

FIFA and the Zionist entity

FIFA’s stance toward Israel has become a lightning rod for the politicization of world football. Throughout the 2026 cycle, over thirty legal experts and multiple federations—including Turkey and twelve Middle Eastern associations—demanded Israel’s suspension from FIFA and UEFA competitions, citing conduct in Gaza. Spain openly considered boycotting the World Cup had Israel qualified, while the Trump administration lobbied FIFA to resist any ban. Infantino’s own gestures—attempting to stage a handshake between Israeli and Palestinian federation heads and pledging $75 million to a Trump-linked Gaza reconstruction board—have drawn accusations of legitimizing occupation rather than enforcing neutrality.

Neither Israel nor Palestine qualified for the 2026 tournament, rendering the immediate suspension debate moot. As for Messi, the Argentine captain has generally steered clear of geopolitical alignment; his 2019 visit to Israel was controversial; they alleged it is commercial, not political. There is no verified evidence so far of Israeli state support for the Argentina team or Messi as a strategic asset. What remains evident is that FIFA’s reluctance to apply the same suspension standard to Israel that it applied to Russia after 2022 has exposed the federation to charges of double standards—suggesting that geopolitical alliances, not sporting integrity, increasingly dictate who gets to play.

Looking ahead

As the 2026 World Cup enters its final stages, the tension between commerce and integrity will only intensify. FIFA has built a financial architecture of unprecedented scale—$13 billion cycles, billion-dollar betting partnerships, dynamic-priced tickets, and social media streaming deals. But it has not built the governance architecture to match.

The questions raised by this tournament—about selective accountability for star players, about the shadow economy of unregulated betting, about access for the fans who fund the spectacle through their attention and their wagers, and about whether record revenues translate into genuine global development—will define FIFA’s credibility long after the final whistle.

For now, the show goes on. Messi remains on the pitch. The betting windows stay open. And the money keeps flowing—in Zurich, in the boardrooms of Adidas and Betano, and in the unlicensed crypto exchanges that FIFA cannot control but whose existence its spectacle makes possible.

Whether football’s governing body is stewarding the world’s game or simply auctioning it to the highest bidder is a question that, like the tournament itself, belongs to the global public. And it is one that FIFA has yet to satisfactorily answer.