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Netanyahu coalition loses majority in latest poll as conscription crisis mounts

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A new public opinion poll published in Israel reveals that the political balance of power has shifted against the current ruling coalition ahead of the country’s upcoming general election.

According to the poll broadcast by Channel 13 television, the anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to secure the majority required to form a government in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.

The current governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to win only 50 seats in the 120-member legislature.

The poll results indicate that the Yashar Party, led by former Chief of General Staff Eisenkot, would win 21 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud party would retain 22 seats, remaining the largest single party in the Knesset.

However, the three parties securing the next highest number of seats behind Likud are all aligned with the anti-Netanyahu bloc.

Opposition parties secure majority to form government

The survey projects that former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Birlikte (Together) Party would win 15 seats, while the left-leaning Democrats Party, led by Yair Golan, would secure 11 seats.

The Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by Avigdor Liberman, is projected to win 10 seats, while a political alliance formed by former Minister Yoaz Hendel and National Unity Party member Hili Tropper is expected to secure four seats in the Knesset.

Channel 13 reported that this projected outcome gives the anti-Netanyahu parties a “clear majority” to form a new government.

In contrast, within Netanyahu’s current ruling coalition, the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party is projected to win eight seats, while the Shas party is expected to secure seven.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) party is projected to win seven seats, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party is expected to win six.

Commenting on the poll results, the Haaretz newspaper noted: “If the election were held today, Netanyahu’s governing coalition would win a total of only 50 seats.”

Arab parties not required for new coalition

According to the poll data, the Arab parties Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al are projected to win five and four seats, respectively. However, the anti-Netanyahu bloc would not require their support to form a new government.

Another Arab party, along with the Blue and White party led by Benny Gantz, is projected to fall below the 3.25% electoral threshold, failing to enter the Knesset.

The general election is scheduled to take place on October 27. While this coalition of parties, referred to in Israel as the “Zionist opposition bloc,” opposes Netanyahu politically, it aligns with the current government on security policies.

These opposition parties, characterized as centrist or right-leaning, hold views similar to those of current government members on issues such as the military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as military action against Iran.

61% of Israelis oppose Netanyahu candidacy

A study published last month by the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute also showed that a large majority of the public views Netanyahu’s political future unfavorably.

According to the study, 61% of surveyed Israelis believe Netanyahu should not run in the upcoming election.

The proportion of those supporting the prime minister’s re-candidacy remains at 35%. Netanyahu continues to stand trial on corruption and bribery charges, with hearings ongoing amid repeated delays.

Conscription crisis intensifies early election pressure

An ongoing dispute among coalition partners over mandatory military service for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews is further increasing pressure on the government.

The continued exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service has drawn sharp criticism, with opposition parties accusing the government of placing the entire burden of the war on secular reservists.

The high command of the Israel Defense Forces has warned that the reserve forces risk collapse due to the unresolved crisis.

This ongoing friction has fueled calls for the dissolution of the Knesset and the holding of early elections, which are otherwise scheduled for 2026. In an effort to establish a political alternative, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid decided in April to merge their parties.

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Over 3,000 Palestinians displaced as Israel’s Hebron siege hits day 5

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The Israeli army’s siege of the city of Hebron in the occupied West Bank has entered its fifth day. More than 3,000 Palestinians have been forced to flee their homes as raids, house demolitions, and forced evictions continue across the city.

According to data shared by Hebron Municipality on 26 October, the number of displaced people has reached 3,189. More than 200 of them are infants.

Municipal authorities announced that roughly half of the total displaced population consists of children and youths under the age of 18.

Palestinian officials in the besieged city declared a state of emergency and established an urgent crisis desk.

Rami Khamis, a member of the crisis desk, highlighted civic solidarity in remarks to Al Jazeera, saying local residents and benefactors who refused to let their fellow citizens stay in temporary shelters opened their homes to displaced families.

A Palestinian forced to abandon his home in haste recounted his ordeal to Al Jazeera on 26 October.

Explaining that they fled with only the clothes on their backs, the resident said their savings, household goods, and official documents were left behind. After placing his family in a relatively safe place, he attempted to return to salvage their belongings, but could not reach the house because the area was no longer safe.

The siege began immediately after an attack on 23 October in which two Israeli soldiers were killed. The two Palestinians who carried out the assault were killed at the scene by Israeli forces.

Citing this incident, the Israeli army blockaded the city and launched wide-ranging operations. The British newspaper The Guardian described the measures carried out in Hebron as “collective punishment”.

Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi also condemned both the siege in Hebron and the military incursions spreading across the occupied West Bank in a statement on 26 October.

Emphasising that these steps constitute collective punishment, Mardawi warned that escalating tensions on the ground could lead to grave consequences.

Mardawi further argued that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government are using these attacks for propaganda and electoral calculations, stating that military pressure will not break Palestinian resilience and that calculations regarding annexation and mass expulsion will fail to achieve their goal.

Operation rift in Israeli leadership

As the blockade entered its fifth day, a divergence of opinion emerged between Israel’s military brass and the government.

According to a report in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clashed over the future of the operation.

Zamir argued that the military campaign on the ground had delivered whatever benefit it could provide and that it was now time to bring it to an end.

Military officials said tangible gains achieved throughout the operation remained limited, indicating that whether to sustain the current push required reassessment.

Indeed, the newspaper reported that Israeli forces managed to seize only a limited number of weapons in the city, failing to uncover any unusual arsenals or major arms caches.

However, Chief of Staff Zamir’s proposal to end the operation was rejected. Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Defence Minister dismissed the recommendation and decided to continue the offensive.

At least 70 Palestinians have been detained in Hebron since the siege and operations began. The Israeli army is also continuing extensive demolition activities targeting civilian homes across the city.

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US envoy says Syria interim leader Sharaa seeks Israel normalization

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US Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack stated that Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, wants to normalize relations with Israel.

At the same time, he called for an end to Israel’s military operations in Syria and questioned whether Washington should intervene to halt them.

Speaking at the Global Security Forum held in Doha, Qatar, Barrack said Sharaa had managed difficult circumstances well and was trying to reassure Israel that his government poses no threat.

“I think President Sharaa has done a very good job under very difficult circumstances,” Barrack said, describing the message he believes the Syrian leader is conveying to Israel: “I am not aggressive, I have no problem with Israel, I want relations with Israel to normalize.”

Barrack also urged Israel to stop its operations in Syria, while voicing uncertainty over whether the US should step in to end them:

“It’s time to stop this [Israel’s actions in Syria]. I don’t know if it’s time for the US to intervene to stop it.”

Israel intensified its military operations in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad on 8 December 2024. Israeli forces entered the demilitarized “buffer zone” along the Golan Heights and took up positions on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon (Jabal al-Shaykh), with Israel describing the deployment as a temporary security measure.

Israeli air strikes have also targeted military facilities and weapons depots across the country.

Barrack pointed to Syria’s political transition as an example of how groups once viewed as adversaries could be incorporated into new political and security structures.

“You can take Nusra, which was once designated a foreign terrorist organization; following the transformation that took place on December 8, many people today evaluate this example as ‘here is a model,'” the US diplomat said.

The Nusra Front was a jihadist group that emerged during the Syrian civil war and, after pledging allegiance to al-Qaeda, announced its departure from the network. The organization was designated as “terrorist” by several countries and bodies, primarily the US and the UN.

The group’s leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Julani), subsequently headed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the offensive that ousted Assad.

Barrack also highlighted the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the Syrian national army as an outcome many had previously considered unlikely.

“Nobody thought you could reintegrate this Kurdish entity, the SDF, into a national army, but it happened,” the US official said.

Damascus and the Kurdish-led forces signed an agreement on 10 March 2025 to integrate the SDF’s military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state.

However, delays occurred in the implementation of the agreement due to disputes over integration terms and the future of self-administration in the region.

Barrack nevertheless expressed doubts about the effectiveness of earlier US interventions in the Middle East, citing Washington’s involvement in what he characterized as “23 regime changes” across the wider region.

“Whenever we have tried to intervene, to change a person or a regime, it seems to have been a mistake,” Barrack said, while also questioning the value of US intervention in Yemen, describing it as apparently “senseless.”

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US and Israel weigh Iran strikes after midterm vote, reports say

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The US and Israeli defence ministries have drawn up plans for a fresh assault on Iran, with the envisioned offensive under consideration to launch after the US Congressional midterm elections on 3 November.

Citing sources, The New York Times reported that the blueprint anticipates a brief but intense campaign.

As military units step up their drills, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed prospective strike options with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The list of targets encompasses Iran’s nuclear sites, its energy infrastructure, and its arsenals of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Several officials who spoke to the newspaper argued that a new wave of attacks could deal a heavy blow to the Iranian economy, forcing the leadership in Tehran into concessions.

Conversely, other sources doubt whether a resumption of fighting would prove any more successful than the earlier campaign conducted between February and April.

That previous offensive drove energy prices higher and drained US stockpiles of interceptor missiles.

It remains unclear whether US President Donald Trump will authorise the operation.

Domestic political calculations in Israel could also influence the trajectory of the plans, given that the country faces general elections on 27 October.

While some experts speaking to the newspaper contended that Netanyahu could leverage the threat of war to form a national unity government, others pointed to the opposition’s distrust of the prime minister.

Washington fears regional spillover

The US administration also harbours concerns that the fighting could engulf the wider region. On Wednesday, the US State Department ordered non-essential government personnel and their family members to leave Saudi Arabia following attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis.

A US military build-up, comprising three aircraft carriers, fighter aircraft, and special forces units, is slated to be fully deployed to the region by early November.

The targets under review include the deep underground nuclear facility code-named “Pickaxe”. Trump suggested that the high-yield GBU-43/B bomb, known as the “mother of all bombs”, could be deployed against the site, though experts doubt whether the ordnance can destroy a complex buried so deeply.

For its part, Tehran is preparing for a potential escalation, threatening to broaden its target list. Retaliatory options under consideration by Iran reportedly include data centres and subsea internet cables, in addition to shipping and energy facilities.

Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to an Iranian negotiator, dismissed US hopes of wrapping up a new campaign within 72 hours as a “fantasy”. Mohammadi warned that Tehran’s response would be more severe and unpredictable.

The Financial Times previously reported that an Israeli strike on Iran set for 10 October had been called off because the US president was unwilling to risk a broader conflict ahead of the Congressional midterms.

According to that report, the Israeli military had prepared a multi-day assault on nuclear sites, Iranian government targets, power plants, and civilian infrastructure on Netanyahu’s orders. The strikes had been designed to exceed the intensity of the campaign begun in February.

Washington seeks to secure an agreement from Tehran covering both the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear programme.

“It will either be a deal or a strike,” one source told the Financial Times, adding that an operation could get under way in the coming weeks.

Another official who spoke to the paper suggested that Israeli preparations might serve as leverage to squeeze Iran in negotiations.

Axios also reported that the Pentagon had issued orders to prepare for renewed strikes, though the directive contained no specific date and Trump has yet to take a final decision.

The US and Israel launched their offensive against Iran on 28 February. Iran hit back by targeting US and Israeli assets across the region and curbing vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Although both sides signed a memorandum of understanding in June that provided for a ceasefire and talks to lift the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, reciprocal attacks between the US and Iran have persisted.

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