Netanyahu coalition loses majority in latest poll as conscription crisis mounts

A new public opinion poll published in Israel reveals that the political balance of power has shifted against the current ruling coalition ahead of the country’s upcoming general election.

According to the poll broadcast by Channel 13 television, the anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to secure the majority required to form a government in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.

The current governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to win only 50 seats in the 120-member legislature.

The poll results indicate that the Yashar Party, led by former Chief of General Staff Eisenkot, would win 21 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud party would retain 22 seats, remaining the largest single party in the Knesset.

However, the three parties securing the next highest number of seats behind Likud are all aligned with the anti-Netanyahu bloc.

Opposition parties secure majority to form government

The survey projects that former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Birlikte (Together) Party would win 15 seats, while the left-leaning Democrats Party, led by Yair Golan, would secure 11 seats.

The Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by Avigdor Liberman, is projected to win 10 seats, while a political alliance formed by former Minister Yoaz Hendel and National Unity Party member Hili Tropper is expected to secure four seats in the Knesset.

Channel 13 reported that this projected outcome gives the anti-Netanyahu parties a “clear majority” to form a new government.

In contrast, within Netanyahu’s current ruling coalition, the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party is projected to win eight seats, while the Shas party is expected to secure seven.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) party is projected to win seven seats, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party is expected to win six.

Commenting on the poll results, the Haaretz newspaper noted: “If the election were held today, Netanyahu’s governing coalition would win a total of only 50 seats.”

Arab parties not required for new coalition

According to the poll data, the Arab parties Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al are projected to win five and four seats, respectively. However, the anti-Netanyahu bloc would not require their support to form a new government.

Another Arab party, along with the Blue and White party led by Benny Gantz, is projected to fall below the 3.25% electoral threshold, failing to enter the Knesset.

The general election is scheduled to take place on October 27. While this coalition of parties, referred to in Israel as the “Zionist opposition bloc,” opposes Netanyahu politically, it aligns with the current government on security policies.

These opposition parties, characterized as centrist or right-leaning, hold views similar to those of current government members on issues such as the military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as military action against Iran.

61% of Israelis oppose Netanyahu candidacy

A study published last month by the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute also showed that a large majority of the public views Netanyahu’s political future unfavorably.

According to the study, 61% of surveyed Israelis believe Netanyahu should not run in the upcoming election.

The proportion of those supporting the prime minister’s re-candidacy remains at 35%. Netanyahu continues to stand trial on corruption and bribery charges, with hearings ongoing amid repeated delays.

Conscription crisis intensifies early election pressure

An ongoing dispute among coalition partners over mandatory military service for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews is further increasing pressure on the government.

The continued exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service has drawn sharp criticism, with opposition parties accusing the government of placing the entire burden of the war on secular reservists.

The high command of the Israel Defense Forces has warned that the reserve forces risk collapse due to the unresolved crisis.

This ongoing friction has fueled calls for the dissolution of the Knesset and the holding of early elections, which are otherwise scheduled for 2026. In an effort to establish a political alternative, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid decided in April to merge their parties.