America
US voter support for Iran conflict collapses as fuel prices surge and midterm risks mount
American voter support for the war in Iran is eroding rapidly following the collapse of the ceasefire process, with public opposition reaching historic levels in a remarkably short timeframe.
According to a survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, four out of five respondents anticipate that the hostilities will persist for a long time. Meanwhile, nearly half of those surveyed in a The Economist/YouGov poll estimate that the war will last for a year or longer. As public backing for the military campaign disintegrates, Donald Trump’s net approval rating for his decision to attack Iran has plummeted to minus 30%.
While it took six years of active involvement in the Vietnam War for public opposition to reach such a critical threshold, the war in Iran has generated a comparable level of rejection in just six months.
Speaking to The Economist, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia emphasized that the key takeaway is not merely the depth of the opposition, but the unprecedented speed with which it has formed. Sabato noted that the conflict in Iran has registered the lowest level of public support of any American military engagement since polling on such interventions began, a trend that has remained constant since day one. Warning that a prolonged conflict will inevitably drive up costs, Sabato projected that this dynamic will translate into a severe political penalty for Trump and the Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections.
Historically, US military interventions have initially enjoyed robust public support before gradually decaying over time. For instance, the US-led operations launched against the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001 initially secured the backing of approximately 90% of the public.
At the time, President George W. Bush presented a clear, direct justification for the invasion, targeting the Taliban for harboring the terrorists responsible for the September 11 attacks. According to Gallup data, it took 13 years for public support for the occupation—which ultimately claimed the lives of more than 2,000 US service members and wounded another 20,000—to fall below 50%.
Economic consequences directly impact voters
Thus far, 17 US service members have been killed in Trump’s war in Iran. While this figure is low from a strictly military standpoint, the economic ramifications of the conflict have directly and rapidly disrupted the daily lives of American consumers.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which was fully open prior to the military operations, has triggered a sharp rise in fuel prices. Although Trump has asserted that the US military presence has broken the regional blockade and enabled oil to flow at higher volumes than ever, concrete economic data does not support his claims.
The price of Brent crude oil has climbed from $72 to $88 per barrel since the beginning of July. In the domestic retail market, the average price of gasoline in the US has risen from approximately $3 per gallon before the war to nearly $4 per gallon.
Gallup historical data shows that during the Vietnam War, which involved large numbers of American ground troops, voters consistently identified the conflict as the most important problem facing the nation.
While the war in Iran has not yet been designated in those exact terms, voters consistently identify the high cost of living and a lack of leadership as their primary concerns in current polling. This shift indicates that despite the relatively low number of military casualties, the war in Iran is poised to become a major electoral liability for the Republican Party.
Support for the military campaign is also sharply polarized along political lines. Among Democratic voters, the net approval rating for the war stands at minus 84%, while among independents it rests at minus 52%.
Even within the “MAGA” Republican base—the only major demographic group to back the initiative, with a 72% approval rating—cracks are beginning to appear. According to a Washington Post/Ipsos poll, more than half of Trump’s core supporters indicated for the first time that they approve of his job performance only “partially” rather than “strongly.” Among Republicans who do not self-identify with the MAGA movement, support for the war has swung from a positive net approval of 26% in April to a net negative of 25%.
Budgetary debates in Congress
In response to the shifting public mood, Democratic lawmakers are intensifying their opposition. During the July 14 confirmation hearing for Jules Hurst, the nominee to oversee the Pentagon’s budget, Democratic senators accused the administration of systematically understating the financial toll of the conflict.
The Pentagon has put the cost of the war at approximately $30 billion, asserting that the figure primarily reflects spent munitions and fuel.
However, Senator Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat from Michigan, estimated that the true cost is more than six times that amount when factoring in the repair costs for American bases and the broader economic damages suffered by consumers. Slotkin also criticized the Pentagon’s commercial relationships with companies in which Trump’s sons hold business interests.
Conversely, Representative Mike Lawler, a Republican fighting to retain his seat in a highly competitive district in New York, dismissed the opposition’s criticisms as “nonsense.”
Lawler argued that Trump made a difficult but necessary decision to eliminate the threats posed by Iran’s nuclear program and its active sponsorship of terrorist groups. While acknowledging that he does not know how long the conflict will last, Lawler maintained that the Iranian regime is untrustworthy and only understands the language of military force. His Democratic opponent, military veteran Cait Conley, countered that Trump has dragged the United States into a conflict lacking clear military objectives or a viable exit strategy.
According to The Economist‘s midterm election forecasting model, Lawler faces a 68% probability of losing his seat in November. The same model projects an 82% probability that Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives, and a 45% chance of taking control of the Senate.
Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace observed that Trump’s compounding difficulties in extricating the US from Iran recall the famous lament of former US President Lyndon Johnson during the Vietnam War: “I feel like a hitchhiker caught in a hailstorm on a Texas highway. I can’t run, I can’t hide, and I can’t make it stop.”
America
Thiel targets Pope and Obama over AI in new ‘Antichrist’ lectures
Peter Thiel has argued that former President Barack Obama and Pope Leo XIV are stoking public fears over artificial intelligence merely to enhance their own popularity.
In newly disclosed “Antichrist” lectures obtained by Politico, Thiel specifically targeted the two leaders while warning against the Antichrist, which he sees as halting technological progress and advocating a regulatory “one-world government”.
“A lot of people know that AI is politically unpopular, and they want to use that to boost their own popularity,” Thiel reportedly said during his address in Nashville.
Thiel continued:
“Both Obama and the pope fall into this category. Obama knows that Democrats have no ideas, but at least they can oppose AI.”
Obama recently called on Democrats to develop a comprehensive approach to the regulation of artificial intelligence.
Referring to Leo’s first encyclical on AI, “Magnifica Humanitas”, Thiel said: “The Church needed a politically popular issue to divert attention from child sexual abuse scandals, and it found it in AI.”
On the pontiff, he stated verbatim:
“AI is the greatest threat to late modernity. The pope realizes this. That is why he wrote his first encyclical… The Church needed a politically popular issue to divert attention from child sexual abuse scandals, and it found it in AI.”
In recent months, Pope Leo has gone on the offensive against artificial intelligence. The leader of the Catholic world recently said that this technology could create a “paradise of machines” that could endanger humanity.
Thiel’s relationship with the Catholic Church is fraught. This spring, largely in response to Thiel’s earlier lectures on the “Antichrist”, Vatican adviser Father Paolo Benanti penned an article entitled “The American Heresy: Should We Burn Peter Thiel?”
Throughout the lectures, Thiel framed familiar technology debates in religious terms.
Citing Matthew 24:24, for instance, the investor quoted:
“For false christs and false prophets will arise and perform great signs and wonders, so as to deceive, if possible, even the elect.”
Regarding this verse, he asked in Nashville: “And what about the psychology of the Antichrist? Could he see himself as the Christ?”
In his Nashville lectures, he also delved into the concept of the “Katechon”, drawn from the Second Epistle to the Thessalonians, which restrains the arrival and rise to power of the Antichrist.
Figures who may have briefly assumed the role of the Katechon throughout history included Charlemagne and Klemens von Metternich.
“If anti-communism is the Katechon holding back communists trying to create a communist one-world state, then neoliberalism is anti-communism in a world without communists,” Thiel said.
In both San Francisco and Nashville, Thiel devoted a significant portion of his opening lecture to addressing “effective altruism”.
This ideology rests on the premise that human beings should always act to minimise existential risk to the species and maximise positive long-term impact.
Many effective altruists and affiliated groups are based in San Francisco and work on artificial intelligence research.
In Nashville, Thiel criticised their ideas. This stance reflects the fact that they have dominated much of the recent AI safety debate, showing Thiel’s concern over the growing influence of this group.
Thiel stated:
“One reason [the effective altruists’] strategy works, of course, is that an apocalypse is impossible to undo. You only have one planet. Even Greta [Thunberg] was right about that. … So you can’t just ignore the risks. But we must also take seriously that when you establish a near-totalitarian one-world government empowered to stop all dangerous scientific work, undoing that will not be easy either… There is no historical example suggesting this global warden would willingly surrender power. Effective altruist ideology has brainwashed a significant portion of the people working on AI.”
The remarks delivered by Thiel in his lectures on 28 September and on Monday provide a rare glimpse into the conservative tech billionaire’s shifting political priorities over time.
Thiel’s opposition to regulation is not new. That perspective is widely shared among Silicon Valley venture capitalists.
What distinguishes Thiel from his peers in the conservative tech sector is his decision to frame political disputes in religious terms while simultaneously attacking the leader of the Catholic Church.
This shift could reverberate across the political arena. Thiel was an early backer of President Donald Trump and served as a major financial sponsor of Vice President JD Vance’s transition from venture capital into politics.
Politico noted that Thiel’s attacks on the church could complicate matters for Vance, a Catholic convert.
Democrats positioning themselves for the 2028 presidential election have already begun targeting Vance over his ties to the billionaire investor.
America
Energy firms enlist ex-US officials to tap Venezuelan oil
Service in the US administration has become one of the most valuable assets opening doors in the search for fresh profits across the Venezuelan energy sector.
Following the protracted crisis that ultimately brought the Venezuelan oil sector under substantial supervision by Washington, investors are enlisting former government officials who possess an intimate understanding of policy toward the country and maintain official contacts.
According to a report by The Washington Post (WP), energy companies and investors have begun employing former bureaucrats who served in the administration of Donald Trump.
Former officials move to the private sector
Michael Jensen, the former senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the White House National Security Council, features prominently among these figures.
Just three days after stepping down from his administration post in May, Jensen travelled to Venezuela alongside cryptocurrency billionaire Fred Ehrsam.
As of 1 June, Jensen serves as chief operating officer at Primavera, an energy firm founded by Ehrsam.
Last month, Primavera signed production agreements with the Venezuelan state oil company, PDVSA.
Another former government official, Brittany Caelm, left her role on the White House National Energy Dominance Council in August to join Sable Offshore.
According to reporting by the WP and the Financial Times, the company is conducting negotiations with the Venezuelan government over the operation of oilfields.
Micah Thomas Ketchel, a former adviser at the State Department, also joined the lobbying firm Ballard Partners following his departure from the administration and began working on the Venezuela portfolio.
US law imposes various post-government employment restrictions on former officials.
Company representatives stated that Jensen, Caelm, and Ketchel consulted ethics lawyers and complied with applicable rules.
Richard Painter, a former chief White House ethics counsel, also noted that Jensen’s transition to the private sector did not violate the law, provided that the relevant restrictions were respected.
Trump announces massive deal for oilfields
In January, following the abduction and detention of elected President Nicolas Maduro, US President Donald Trump urged American oil companies to invest in Venezuela to increase heavy crude production and shipments to US refineries.
Prior to this call, companies had demanded security guarantees alongside changes to the country’s legal and commercial regulations.
Maduro and his wife were abducted in a US operation carried out in January and taken to the US. Venezuelan authorities characterised the episode as a military assault, reporting that approximately 100 people were killed.
In the US proceedings against Maduro, two hearings took place in January and March, during which Maduro maintained his innocence.
Amid the rapprochement between Caracas and Washington, American oil and natural gas companies accelerated preparations to expand their operations in Venezuela.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on 28 August that companies were close to concluding investment deals worth billions of dollars.
Chevron, the only major American oil company that maintained operations in the country, weighed taking over two additional heavy oilfields, while Halliburton engaged in talks to supply equipment.
During this process, the Trump administration also addressed the issue of direct access to Venezuela’s most prolific oilfields.
According to the WSJ, these discussions encompassed 17 oilfields with estimated proven reserves totalling approximately 90 billion barrels.
On 29 August, Trump announced that an agreement had been reached with Venezuela.
Trump stated that the pact provides for more than 65 billion barrels of the country’s oil reserves to come under US control, declaring: “The US just signed the largest oil deal in world history with Venezuela.”
America
How will Brazil’s presidential runoff work?
The second round will determine which candidate secures a majority of the valid votes.
By Micaela Ovelar, São Paulo
Brazil’s presidential election will be decided in a runoff between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers’ Party (PT). With all voting machines counted, Bolsonaro finished the October 4 first round with 47.03% of valid votes, ahead of Lula’s 45.16%. Neither secured the majority required for an outright victory, sending the two candidates to a second round on October 25.
Bolsonaro received 56,104,503 votes, while Lula obtained 53,879,538—a difference of 2,224,965 votes, or approximately 1.87 percentage points. Bolsonaro therefore enters the runoff as the first-round leader.
The election also settled legislative contests and most gubernatorial races. In São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral state, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) secured reelection in the first round. Nationwide, 20 gubernatorial contests were decided without a runoff.
The presidential count
The two leading candidates together accounted for 92.19% of valid presidential votes. The remaining candidates shared 7.81%
|
Candidate |
Party |
Votes |
Share of valid votes |
Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Flávio Bolsonaro |
Liberal Party (PL) |
56,104,503 |
47.03% |
2,224,965 |
|
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva |
Workers’ Party (PT) |
53,879,538 |
45.16% |
1.87 % |
Source: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (SEC).
Augusto Cury, of Avante, placed third with approximately 2.89% of valid votes (3,448,569), followed by Renan Santos, of Missão, with 2.24% (2,675,887), and Ronaldo Caiado, of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), with 2.18% (2,605,148). Romeu Zema, of Novo, received 0.27% (326,488). None advanced to the runoff.
Cury and Santos subsequently said they would not endorse either finalist. Their announcements do not determine how their supporters will vote on October 25: ballots cast for eliminated candidates cannot be automatically assigned to Bolsonaro or Lula.
The completed count also differed from the final polls, which had placed Lula ahead with 45%, against Bolsonaro’s 42%. The election result instead gave Bolsonaro a narrow lead.
The territorial distribution showed Lula ahead in the Northeast, while Bolsonaro prevailed in the three southern states: Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. Across the country, Bolsonaro led in 14 states and the Federal District, while Lula finished ahead in 12 states. These results contribute to a single nationwide presidential count rather than awarding separate electoral mandates for individual state victories.
How the election works
Brazil elects its president and vice president on a joint ticket through a two-round system. A ticket wins in the first round only by obtaining more than half of valid votes. Blank and invalid ballots are excluded from that calculation. If no ticket crosses the threshold, the two highest-placed candidates advance to a runoff.
The October 4 election combined presidential voting with contests for governors, the Chamber of Deputies, the Senate and state or Federal District legislatures. All 513 Chamber seats and 54 of the Senate’s 81 seats were contested. The Senate election renewed two-thirds of the chamber, with voters choosing two different senatorial candidates in each state and the Federal District.
Voting in Brazilian territory ended at 5 p.m., Brasília time, after which electoral authorities published the count. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE in Portuguese) provides results through its official results website and mobile application.
The October 25 runoff will decide the presidency and gubernatorial contests requiring a second round. Legislative elections are determined through the first-round vote and do not proceed to a runoff.
Participation and abstention
Approximately 125.3 million people voted in the presidential election, representing a turnout of 78.92%. Around 33.5 million registered voters did not participate, producing an abstention rate of 21.08%.
The count also recorded approximately 2.3 million blank ballots and 3.67 million invalid ballots. Together, these represented roughly 4.77% of ballots cast, leaving approximately 119.3 million valid presidential votes. Bolsonaro’s 47.03% and Lula’s 45.16% refer to that valid-vote total, not to all ballots cast or the entire registered electorate.
Abstention is distinct from blank or invalid voting. An abstaining voter did not cast a ballot; someone who submitted a blank or invalid ballot participated without recording a valid candidate choice. Neither group should automatically be described as undecided voters.
Those who did not participate on October 4 will have another opportunity to vote in the second round. Of course, the first-round figures do not establish how many will return to the polls or which finalist they will choose.
São Paulo and state results
São Paulo entered the election with approximately 34.1 million registered voters, around 21.5% of Brazil’s electorate. It is the country’s largest electoral state and forms part of the Southeast alongside Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo. Its weight in the national electorate makes it particularly important when examining presidential results.
The state’s gubernatorial contest ended in the first round. Tarcísio de Freitas, of Republicanos, won reelection with almost 63% of valid votes (14,491,874), defeating PT candidate Fernando Haddad (8,423,656). This is a gap of approximately 26 percentage points between them.
Across Brazil, 20 gubernatorial races were settled on October 4, the highest first-round total of elections since 1994. That exceeded the 15 contests decided in the first round in 2022 and the previous high of 18 in 2010.
Other first-round winners included Cleitinho Azevedo in Minas Gerais, Sérgio Moro in Paraná and Luciano Zucco in Rio Grande do Sul. PT incumbents Jerônimo Rodrigues, Elmano de Freitas and Rafael Fonteles won reelection in Bahia, Ceará and Piauí, respectively. Six gubernatorial runoffs have been confirmed: Acre, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Rio Grande do Norte, Tocantins, and the Federal District.
Rio de Janeiro Case
In Rio de Janeiro, Douglas Ruas had 49.27% and Eduardo Paes 42.76%. Anthony Garotinho’s withdrawal of an appeal concerning his rejected candidacy could change which votes enter the calculation, potentially lifting Ruas above the first-round threshold. Rio de Janeiro remains an unresolved case because a pending electoral decision could affect the total number of valid votes. Formal action by electoral authorities was still required, so the contest could not yet be presented as a settled first-round victory. However, the electoral justice system is highly likely to announce a first-round victory for Douglas Ruas, who is also a candidate from Bolsonaro’s political party, the PL.
Brazilian voters abroad
Brazilians registered abroad participated in the presidential contest, with approximately 341,800 casting ballots in 186 cities, according to TSE data. Around 916,500 voters were eligible to vote overseas. Unlike the nationwide result, the overseas count placed Lula ahead. He received 157,387 votes, or 47.57% of valid ballots cast abroad, against approximately 143,900 votes, or 43.49%, for Bolsonaro. Lula led in 64 countries and Bolsonaro in 37.
The distribution varied sharply by country. Bolsonaro obtained 61.10% in the United States and 71.76% in Japan. Lula led in Portugal with 52.45%, Argentina with 64.44%, Canada with 57.75% and Germany with 71.93%. Overseas ballots form part of the national presidential total rather than a separate electoral contest.
Brazil now heads to the October 25 runoff with Bolsonaro ahead in the first-round count, but the presidency is still undecided. The second round will determine which ticket secures a majority of valid votes.
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