After the Busan summit, can China and the US overcome the challenges?

On October 30, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a landmark meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, recalibrating and setting the tone again for the development of bilateral relations. Both sides agreed to strengthen cooperation in trade, energy, and other fields and to promote cultural exchanges; they also agreed that the heads of state would maintain regular contact. Trump expressed his hope to visit China early next year and invited President Xi to visit the United States. At the same time, the two sides’ economic and trade teams announced several breakthrough advances from the latest round of negotiations.

Observers believe that the successful breakthrough of the China-U.S. trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur laid a good foundation and created a harmonious atmosphere for the Busan Summit; the summit itself and the consensus reached undoubtedly established a new direction and tone for stabilizing and advancing China-U.S. relations, bringing encouraging optimism to the international community and injecting stability and vitality into the global geopolitical and economic systems. In short, from the Kuala Lumpur negotiations to the Busan Summit, China-U.S. relations have basically bid farewell to the long-term turbulence, twists, and crises that began after 2018. It seems that “the light boat has passed ten thousand mountains,” and is sailing toward a new world conducive to the development and prosperity of both countries and to global stability and peace. However, considering the complexity of major-power relations, a rational assessment of current China-U.S. relations should be that “the heavy ship is still crossing a thousand ridges.”

The 100-minute Busan Summit marked the first meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in six years, and the first China-U.S. summit in Trump’s new term, coinciding with the completion of the fourth round of China-U.S. trade talks. Thus, not only did both sides attach great importance to it, but the international community also watched closely. The China-U.S. relationship is the most important in the world; its trajectory determines not only the future of both nations but also global security and destiny. It can be said that mainstream international opinion hopes that the two great ships of China and the United States will move toward each other, coexist peacefully, advance harmoniously, and work together in unity.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi Jinping emphasized during the talks that the heads of state play the role of steering and guiding bilateral relations; as the world’s two largest economies with different national conditions, differences and even frictions are natural and normal; China has adhered to one blueprint for more than 70 years, focusing on doing its own work well and sharing development opportunities with the world, with no intention of challenging or replacing anyone; China’s development and revitalization are not in conflict with Trump’s call to “Make America Great Again” and can complement each other for shared prosperity; China and the United States should take a broad view, focusing on the long-term benefits of cooperation rather than falling into a vicious cycle of mutual retaliation; both countries have the will and responsibility to promote peaceful solutions to regional hotspots and can jointly demonstrate major-power responsibility, working together on significant, practical, and beneficial undertakings for both nations and the world.

Trump said, “It is an honor to meet President Xi. China is a great country, and President Xi is a respected great leader and my good friend for many years. We have a very pleasant relationship. U.S.-China relations have always been good and will be better in the future. I hope both China and the United States will have an even better future. China is the United States’ greatest partner, and the two countries working together can accomplish many great things in the world. Future U.S.-China cooperation will achieve even greater results.”

At the Busan Summit, both heads of state stated that China would host the 2026 APEC Economic Leaders’ Informal Meeting and that the United States would host the G20 Summit, expressing satisfaction with each other’s success. They also agreed to exchange visits next year.

During Trump’s first presidency, he paid a state visit to China. After his re-election in 2024, he repeatedly expressed his desire to visit China again as soon as possible. However, for well-known reasons, his second visit to China had long remained uncertain. The Busan Summit confirmed that Trump would visit China early next year and that President Xi would later pay a return visit to the United States, a major positive development eagerly anticipated by both countries and the international community. It indicates that the stability of China-U.S. relations in the coming year, or even several years, is within reach, and further improvement is the shared will of both leaders and the trend of the times and the global situation.

Observers also noted that during the Busan summit talks, neither the Chinese nor U.S. heads of state mentioned the Taiwan issue, indicating that this matter—China’s internal affair that has always obstructed China-U.S. relations—seems no longer on the two sides’ topic list, in stark contrast to their meeting in Osaka, Japan six years ago. On September 19 this year, when Xi Jinping and Donald Trump held a phone consultation, the Taiwan topic did not appear in news reports either. Therefore, the two most recent instances of direct communication between the Chinese and U.S. leaders released an extraordinary signal externally, and are undoubtedly a major step forward in overcoming the “Taiwan obstacle” in China-U.S. relations. Recently, the well-known American think tank Rand Corporation suggested that the U.S. government “support China’s gradual unification,” which can be described as a new line of thinking in U.S. think tanks’ approach to relations with China. Considered together, these signs clearly show that China-U.S. relations differ from the past.

After the China-U.S. leaders’ meeting in Busan, the consensus results of the Kuala Lumpur consultations by the two countries’ economic and trade teams were made public. The good news spread rapidly across the world and was encouraging, mainly including the following aspects:

1.The U.S. side will cancel the additional 10% so-called “fentanyl tariff” on Chinese goods (including goods from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region). The additional 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods (including goods from the HKSAR and the MSAR) will continue to be suspended for one year. The Chinese side will correspondingly adjust countermeasures against the above U.S. tariffs. Both sides agreed to continue extending certain tariff-exclusion measures.

2.The U.S. side will suspend for one year implementation of the “50%” de minimis rule in the export-control measures it announced on September 29. The Chinese side will suspend for one year implementation of relevant export-control and other measures it announced on October 9, and will study and refine specific plans.

3.The U.S. side will suspend for one year its Section 301 investigative measures regarding China’s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries. After the U.S. side suspends the relevant measures, the Chinese side will correspondingly suspend for one year its countermeasures against the U.S. side.

In addition, the two sides also reached consensus on cooperation in fentanyl counter-narcotics, expanding trade in agricultural products, and handling certain individual corporate cases. The two sides further confirmed the outcomes of the Madrid economic and trade consultations; the U.S. side made positive commitments in fields such as investment, and the Chinese side will properly resolve issues related to TikTok with the U.S. side.

Economic and trade cooperation is the ballast stone of China-U.S. relations. Although Donald Trump’s second-term policy toward China “started low and moved low,” the posture is commendable and the momentum is good. However, in April of this year he launched a global tariff war, beginning with attacks on neighboring countries and allies and soon pointing the sword at China. China came prepared, quickly launching a “combination punch of eleven arrows” to counter, and promoted the completion of four rounds of marathon trade negotiations between China and the United States:

— May 10–11 this year, Geneva, Switzerland: China and the United States reached a consensus on tariff reductions;
— July 28–29, Stockholm, Sweden: China and the United States agreed to extend the tariff-suspension period;
— September 14–17, Madrid, Spain: China and the United States focused on tariffs and export controls;
— October 24–27, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: China and the United States reached the above package consensus.

The harvest from the half-year series of China-U.S. trade negotiations, especially the major outcomes recently achieved, paved the way for the smooth holding of the China-U.S. Busan summit; and the new consensus reached by the two heads of state at the Busan summit has in turn provided driving force and top-level guarantees for follow-up negotiations to thoroughly resolve economic and trade disputes, and will provide new expectations and clarify a new direction for expanding China-U.S. economic and trade and energy cooperation, as well as people-to-people exchanges.

From the four rounds of China-U.S. trade negotiations to the China-U.S. summit in Busan, we can draw major insights for handling China-U.S. relations:

First, “Let him be strong, the clear breeze brushes the mountain ridge; let him be overbearing, the bright moon shines on the great river.” As a major country in the world, China must unswervingly follow the path of peaceful development, strive around the dream of building a strong country and national rejuvenation, and avoid all external interference; it must always “bite the green mountain and not let go,” using strong economic development, great comprehensive strength, and sustained social stability to respond to a world where change and turmoil intertwine.

Second, “A train runs fast because the locomotive leads.” The healthy and stable development of China-U.S. relations relies on the strategic judgment, strategic mutual trust, personal friendship, and frequent communication of the two countries’ leaders. President Xi Jinping not only has a far-reaching view of the overall, strategic, and key essential characteristics of China-U.S. relations, but has also repeatedly stressed: “We have a thousand reasons to get China-U.S. relations right, and not a single reason to wreck them”; “China never bets on the United States to lose, never interferes in U.S. internal affairs, and has no intention of challenging or replacing the United States; we are pleased to see a confident, open, developing, and prosperous United States.” These assertions set the general policy for China in handling relations with the United States. From his campaign for a second term, Donald Trump no longer listed China as a main topic, nor did he promise armed support for “Taiwan independence.” After taking office he released a large amount of positive and healthy information toward China, restrained his subordinates in managing statements regarding China, and held three phone calls with President Xi Jinping. The positive guidance, steady steering, and command of the overall situation by the Chinese and U.S. heads of state have played an irreplaceable navigational role in stabilizing and recovering the bilateral relationship.

Third, be reasonable, advantageous, and measured; talk business when discussing business; contend without breaking. China and the United States are the two largest economies in the world and important trading partners for each other. In the 53 years since normalization of relations, they have achieved many major and mutually beneficial outcomes, while also accumulating many political differences, economic problems, and trade frictions. However, as long as both sides adhere to the principle of avoiding the politicization of economic and trade issues, avoiding the economization of political issues, and avoiding the instrumentalization of the economic and trade relationship, they will certainly find proper solutions and reach a new consensus and a new realm of mutual benefit, win–win cooperation, and mutual achievement.

Fourth, “When elephants fight, the lawn suffers.” China and the United States are, respectively, a world-class power and a major power; their bilateral relationship is vital, a tug on one hair moves the whole body, and it concerns global stability and peace. The China–U.S. trade war has seriously affected the world’s industrial, supply, and value chains, and has impacted the future and destiny of the world trade system, the economic system, and globalization. If China and the United States fight viciously, both will be hurt and defeated and the world will suffer; if China and the United States reconcile, both countries will profit and the world will benefit. This has become a highly shared understanding and a basic consensus of international public opinion. Therefore, in line with the responsibility and mission of seeking the well-being of the two peoples and safeguarding world peace and development, China and the United States must properly handle their bilateral relations, must assume major-power responsibilities, and abide by major-power obligations.

The China–U.S. summit in Busan is a high point of a “V-shaped” reversal after a cliff-like deterioration of relations lasting seven years, but the bilateral relationship has still not returned to its best historical state, nor has a new normal of stable development yet formed. Although the leaders of the two countries stress “to be partners and to be friends,” this prospect is still far from the ideal state of being “true partners and true friends,” let alone “good partners and good friends.”

Given the huge differences between China and the United States—especially the United States’ political system, social system, and national positioning, which lead to continued uncertainty in its domestic and foreign affairs—even if the great ship of China–U.S. relations sails into safe waters with calm seas and bright sunshine, it will inevitably encounter sudden changes of weather, high winds and rough waves, and even the test of stormy seas. However, for China, it must always maintain strong strategic confidence, strategic composure, strategic direction, strategic will, and strategic wisdom, and, with the posture of a great and powerful country of “let the winds blow from the east, south, west, and north; I remain unmoved,” meet changes in the situation and changes in the world.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.