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And Trump came… What will happen now?

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We have reached the conclusion of the sentences beginning with “If he wins the elections, if the Deep State doesn’t kill him.” First, he won the elections held on November 5 by a landslide. Even with the Republicans securing victories in Congress, all speculations ceased. Then, the attempts by the Biden-Kamala Harris administration, which lost the elections, to escalate the war in Ukraine—particularly—raised questions about what other tactics and methods the American Deep State might employ until January 20, when Trump would take office. However, such possibilities were also dismissed—at least for the time being—and finally, Trump was sworn in and assumed office.

Well prepared

It is immediately apparent that Trump has come extraordinarily prepared for his first term. As soon as he took office, he signed decrees fulfilling many of his campaign promises. The most significant issue in terms of U.S. domestic political and social debates was the matter of migrants, or rather, fugitives. Trump and Elon Musk, his staunchest supporters, initiated a crucial debate for America. According to them, the Biden administration’s allowance of these fugitives to enter through the Mexican border was not only negligent but also served a strategic purpose.

They argued that these migrants were being directed especially to the “swing states,” which can vote for different parties in every election and thus have a substantial influence on the outcome. In these states, the margin between Democrats and Republicans is sometimes three or five thousand votes, occasionally ten or twenty thousand, allowing one party to take the lead. With a certain number of immigrants settled in these states gaining the right to vote in a short period, it would be possible for the Democrats to win most elections. Consequently, democratic elections in America could lose their significance, as Democrats would secure victories unless faced with major setbacks.

Trump’s first order of business was to immediately sign a decree halting Biden’s policies that allowed the mass entry of individuals America did not need and to deport all illegal immigrants who had entered the country unlawfully. The appointments made for migrants who applied to legalize their status were canceled, paving the way for their repatriation. According to Trump, an unprecedented repatriation operation is about to commence.

On the other hand, Trump appears to have come well-prepared for his battle against the Deep State this time. While pardoning almost all convicts from the January 6, 2021, Congressional Raid, he has also sent a clear message to thousands of senior bureaucrats: “We will not work with you.” Senior officials from the CIA, FBI, intelligence agencies, and other critical state institutions played a major role in attempts to undermine Trump during his first term.

What he said in foreign policy, what he wanted to do, and possible scenarios

Trump’s statements and omissions during his inauguration, along with his frequently expressed views on foreign policy, should all be analyzed separately. Some are symbolic, with meanings not yet fully understood, such as the American reclamation of the Panama Canal and the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico as the American Gulf. Others include threats, such as the Trump administration’s designation of Mexican drug cartels as international terrorist organizations. If the Trump administration intends to dismantle these cartels through direct military interventions in Mexico, we can anticipate that U.S.-Mexico relations will face very serious challenges.

The transfer of ownership of the Panama Canal to the United States, thereby delivering a significant blow to China’s logistics capabilities, is among the issues that need emphasis. The fact that Trump did not mention the Ukraine war, relations with Europe, and NATO during the handover ceremony could be interpreted as a sign that he does not prioritize these issues or that his previous statements on these matters align with American interests. Similarly, the omission of Greenland and Canada from the ceremony…

Greenland and Canada: Breaking point for the collective West

Trump’s announcement days before taking office to annex Greenland and Canada to the United States could create serious fractures within the Collective West. The Danish island of Greenland could bring the United States closer to the Arctic and, as the world warms in the medium term, significantly enhance its power in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding maritime jurisdictions. Canada, with the second-largest land area in the world after Russia, would make many indirect, if not direct, contributions to American ambitions in the Arctic. Moreover, the territory of this second-largest state, with a relatively small population (around 41 million), is likely to possess substantial underground resources, similar to Greenland.

But how can Greenland and Canada be annexed? No state can easily recognize the sovereignty of another without objection. Slogans emphasizing that these territories are not for sale are already prevalent in Canadian and Danish politics. Additionally, how will the new situation, arising from the intimidation and subordination of these countries to the United States, affect relations within the Collective West and the ties between Europe and America?

Greenland (2,196,000 km²) is about four times the size of Türkiye and approximately fifty times the size of Denmark, to which it belongs, yet it has a population of only fifty-six thousand (56,000). Since America’s encouragement of the island’s administration to secede from Denmark through a referendum and become part of the United States would involve coercion, to whom will Denmark— a member of both NATO and the EU—turn for help in such a situation?

What will the leading EU countries say when the U.S. takes Denmark’s island? When it comes to Cyprus and the Aegean, what will EU spokespersons, who immediately issue anti-Türkiye statements in response to Greek complaints, say when Denmark’s sovereign territory is seized? Moreover, in such a case, how will they respond to Crimea’s decision to join Russia through a referendum?

The Canadian issue is equally complicated, if not equally simple. Through intimidation, coercion, or force, the U.S. could turn Canada into America’s fifty-first province, as Trump suggested. How will NATO members, especially European ones, react when Canada—a NATO member—is forced into such a process? They may not have the power and capability to stop this coercion, but their official acceptance would have intriguing consequences. Can there be any concept of a Western Bloc when the United States is collapsing into its allies or some of their territories?

It is clear that all this will quickly lead us to a multipolar world order, which American officials are reluctant to acknowledge. Diplomats, devoid of lessons from world political history and who view Washington as their eternal pole, may claim that the international order will become anarchic. However, world political history and the history of balance-of-power politics will guide us in understanding these issues.

World history has always been multipolar. The bipolar world order after the Second World War, which caused enormous losses, was exceptional due to its ideological nature. The unipolar world order established under American leadership after the collapse of the Soviet Union was entirely exceptional and temporary. It was very difficult to sustain. Moreover, nearly five hundred years of colonialism teach that colonial states have never acted in unison, even when pursuing the same goals; they have been in fierce competition with each other and have often even risked war for this cause.

While bipolar and especially unipolar world orders have been exceptions, the states that suffered from the policies pursued by colonialism and/or Western Bloc countries have always felt trapped. The competition among Western countries seems to have created space for non-Western powers (China, Russia, Brazil, India) to rise rapidly, making the international system less Western-centered on one hand, and opening up more room for maneuver both for themselves and for medium-sized countries like Türkiye on the other. Therefore, there may be no need to be overly concerned in advance about such a new world order, the course of which we cannot determine. In fact, Türkiye can benefit significantly from this situation by effectively utilizing the opportunities created by unfolding events through policies based on national interest.

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India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

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BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

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