And Trump came… What will happen now?

We have reached the conclusion of the sentences beginning with “If he wins the elections, if the Deep State doesn’t kill him.” First, he won the elections held on November 5 by a landslide. Even with the Republicans securing victories in Congress, all speculations ceased. Then, the attempts by the Biden-Kamala Harris administration, which lost the elections, to escalate the war in Ukraine—particularly—raised questions about what other tactics and methods the American Deep State might employ until January 20, when Trump would take office. However, such possibilities were also dismissed—at least for the time being—and finally, Trump was sworn in and assumed office.

Well prepared

It is immediately apparent that Trump has come extraordinarily prepared for his first term. As soon as he took office, he signed decrees fulfilling many of his campaign promises. The most significant issue in terms of U.S. domestic political and social debates was the matter of migrants, or rather, fugitives. Trump and Elon Musk, his staunchest supporters, initiated a crucial debate for America. According to them, the Biden administration’s allowance of these fugitives to enter through the Mexican border was not only negligent but also served a strategic purpose.

They argued that these migrants were being directed especially to the “swing states,” which can vote for different parties in every election and thus have a substantial influence on the outcome. In these states, the margin between Democrats and Republicans is sometimes three or five thousand votes, occasionally ten or twenty thousand, allowing one party to take the lead. With a certain number of immigrants settled in these states gaining the right to vote in a short period, it would be possible for the Democrats to win most elections. Consequently, democratic elections in America could lose their significance, as Democrats would secure victories unless faced with major setbacks.

Trump’s first order of business was to immediately sign a decree halting Biden’s policies that allowed the mass entry of individuals America did not need and to deport all illegal immigrants who had entered the country unlawfully. The appointments made for migrants who applied to legalize their status were canceled, paving the way for their repatriation. According to Trump, an unprecedented repatriation operation is about to commence.

On the other hand, Trump appears to have come well-prepared for his battle against the Deep State this time. While pardoning almost all convicts from the January 6, 2021, Congressional Raid, he has also sent a clear message to thousands of senior bureaucrats: “We will not work with you.” Senior officials from the CIA, FBI, intelligence agencies, and other critical state institutions played a major role in attempts to undermine Trump during his first term.

What he said in foreign policy, what he wanted to do, and possible scenarios

Trump’s statements and omissions during his inauguration, along with his frequently expressed views on foreign policy, should all be analyzed separately. Some are symbolic, with meanings not yet fully understood, such as the American reclamation of the Panama Canal and the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico as the American Gulf. Others include threats, such as the Trump administration’s designation of Mexican drug cartels as international terrorist organizations. If the Trump administration intends to dismantle these cartels through direct military interventions in Mexico, we can anticipate that U.S.-Mexico relations will face very serious challenges.

The transfer of ownership of the Panama Canal to the United States, thereby delivering a significant blow to China’s logistics capabilities, is among the issues that need emphasis. The fact that Trump did not mention the Ukraine war, relations with Europe, and NATO during the handover ceremony could be interpreted as a sign that he does not prioritize these issues or that his previous statements on these matters align with American interests. Similarly, the omission of Greenland and Canada from the ceremony…

Greenland and Canada: Breaking point for the collective West

Trump’s announcement days before taking office to annex Greenland and Canada to the United States could create serious fractures within the Collective West. The Danish island of Greenland could bring the United States closer to the Arctic and, as the world warms in the medium term, significantly enhance its power in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding maritime jurisdictions. Canada, with the second-largest land area in the world after Russia, would make many indirect, if not direct, contributions to American ambitions in the Arctic. Moreover, the territory of this second-largest state, with a relatively small population (around 41 million), is likely to possess substantial underground resources, similar to Greenland.

But how can Greenland and Canada be annexed? No state can easily recognize the sovereignty of another without objection. Slogans emphasizing that these territories are not for sale are already prevalent in Canadian and Danish politics. Additionally, how will the new situation, arising from the intimidation and subordination of these countries to the United States, affect relations within the Collective West and the ties between Europe and America?

Greenland (2,196,000 km²) is about four times the size of Türkiye and approximately fifty times the size of Denmark, to which it belongs, yet it has a population of only fifty-six thousand (56,000). Since America’s encouragement of the island’s administration to secede from Denmark through a referendum and become part of the United States would involve coercion, to whom will Denmark— a member of both NATO and the EU—turn for help in such a situation?

What will the leading EU countries say when the U.S. takes Denmark’s island? When it comes to Cyprus and the Aegean, what will EU spokespersons, who immediately issue anti-Türkiye statements in response to Greek complaints, say when Denmark’s sovereign territory is seized? Moreover, in such a case, how will they respond to Crimea’s decision to join Russia through a referendum?

The Canadian issue is equally complicated, if not equally simple. Through intimidation, coercion, or force, the U.S. could turn Canada into America’s fifty-first province, as Trump suggested. How will NATO members, especially European ones, react when Canada—a NATO member—is forced into such a process? They may not have the power and capability to stop this coercion, but their official acceptance would have intriguing consequences. Can there be any concept of a Western Bloc when the United States is collapsing into its allies or some of their territories?

It is clear that all this will quickly lead us to a multipolar world order, which American officials are reluctant to acknowledge. Diplomats, devoid of lessons from world political history and who view Washington as their eternal pole, may claim that the international order will become anarchic. However, world political history and the history of balance-of-power politics will guide us in understanding these issues.

World history has always been multipolar. The bipolar world order after the Second World War, which caused enormous losses, was exceptional due to its ideological nature. The unipolar world order established under American leadership after the collapse of the Soviet Union was entirely exceptional and temporary. It was very difficult to sustain. Moreover, nearly five hundred years of colonialism teach that colonial states have never acted in unison, even when pursuing the same goals; they have been in fierce competition with each other and have often even risked war for this cause.

While bipolar and especially unipolar world orders have been exceptions, the states that suffered from the policies pursued by colonialism and/or Western Bloc countries have always felt trapped. The competition among Western countries seems to have created space for non-Western powers (China, Russia, Brazil, India) to rise rapidly, making the international system less Western-centered on one hand, and opening up more room for maneuver both for themselves and for medium-sized countries like Türkiye on the other. Therefore, there may be no need to be overly concerned in advance about such a new world order, the course of which we cannot determine. In fact, Türkiye can benefit significantly from this situation by effectively utilizing the opportunities created by unfolding events through policies based on national interest.