Notes from Antalya: At least there’s dialogue!

After spending three days at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum (ADF) as part of the Harici team, I returned with critical impressions regarding both the direction of Turkish foreign policy and the state of the world. Beyond Jeffrey Sachs’s headline-grabbing statement that “Syria was a US-Israel project,” the forum’s most crucial aspect, rather than sensational statements stirring things up, was that global and regional actors – who often struggle to come together or find environments for dialogue – saw Türkiye as a hub in this multipolar world where they could exchange a few words. The number and level of participants helped us better understand the countries Türkiye wants to do business with, and those that want to do business with Türkiye. Ministers and even heads of state from many countries – from the Balkans to the Caucasus, from Africa to Asia – found themselves having tea with counterparts not necessarily considered to be “on the same side.” This sets the ADF apart from similar global diplomatic summits.

A new hub in multipolarity

Whichever panel we attended, the main theme was clearly “multipolarity.” From economic policies to artificial intelligence, from war to the search for trade partners, all discussions revolved around the dissolution of the unipolar world that persisted since the end of the Cold War, and how 19th-century-style geopolitically-driven foreign policy finds resonance today. However, unlike Davos or a BRICS summit, many states that have chosen different paths found a voice at this forum.

For instance, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, who made headlines with the “foreign agent” law and faced protests for allegedly steering his country away from the European Union, was sitting side-by-side with Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović, who was explaining how wonderful and easy joining the EU would be. While we were downstairs requesting an interview with the Iranian delegation, whose militias fought alongside Assad in the Syrian Civil War, Ahmed al-Shara [also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a key figure aiming to overthrow Assad in Syria] walked right past us just a few steps away. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke in an opposite room just a few hours after his Ukrainian counterpart. Even the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan held a panel discussion together.

Such a scene is not something you encounter in many parts of the world. In this period where the world faces the risk of trade or military conflicts, being recognized as a place where anyone can initiate dialogue when needed is a significant advantage for Turkish diplomacy. When we discuss our regional and global interests with other states, the potential cost of alienating Türkiye —losing access to such a diplomatic middle ground— will score points in our favor in all consultations.

Furthermore, the high level of participation primarily from the Balkans, Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia indicates Türkiye’s ambition to become one of the smaller poles that could form outside the Western or BRICS axes. While Türkiye’s early recognition of multipolarity and its positioning accordingly – unlike many Western states – is a plus, not everything is so positive. Although Türkiye’s relationship with the EU gains significant importance during this period of serious security vulnerabilities for the bloc, it was both saddening and surprising that during the forum, Turkic states other than Azerbaijan and Türkiye bowed to the EU’s wishes regarding the TRNC [Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus]. EU states, facing energy shortages and watching their industries shrink after their conflict with Russia, have sought solutions by focusing on Central Asia. Despite their somewhat desperate position, they managed, merely with the promise of investment, to get Kazakhstan to open an embassy in the Republic of Cyprus, and Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to declare their respect for its territorial integrity. Türkiye “conceding such a goal” [suffering a diplomatic setback] to the EU during a period when its geopolitical hand is strong has opened up debate on how effectively we are leveraging our advantages.

Of course, alongside this, there is the Gaza issue. Netanyahu’s claim that some major powers could be persuaded by Trump’s alleged plan to expel Palestinians from Gaza had turned eyes towards Türkiye before the forum. However, the Gaza issue became one of the most discussed topics throughout the forum. While keeping the issue on the agenda is hopeful, uncertainty remains about whether Trump and Netanyahu can carry out their potentially disastrous plan for Gazans.

One notable detail was the relatively low participation from Western Europeans or Americans at the ADF. Although Stephen Doughty, the UK’s Shadow Minister responsible for Europe and North America, attended, it’s fair to say that the bloc we know as the collective West wasn’t particularly enthusiastic about the ADF. Of course, they have quite a bit on their plate. The Trump tariffs, which stirred things up before the forum, also became one of the main topics at the ADF. The tariffs announced almost hourly on a reciprocal basis put participating ministers and heads of state in a rather difficult position. While many hoped their countries wouldn’t suffer severe damage from the tariffs, they stressed that global trade could grind to a halt.

Jeffrey Sachs was also among those heavily criticizing Trump’s tariff policy. I asked Sachs whether Trump’s policy could succeed in bringing back the industries the US had sent abroad years ago under the pretext of globalization. Sachs replied that the way to bring back industries is not to impose tariffs on 150 countries, but to take steps within the country to motivate companies. He also stated that the US does not have to fight countries like China. Perhaps Sachs delivered his most crucial line here:

“Fortunately, diplomacy is cheap. That’s why we are at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, not the Antalya Military Forum!”

Between Israel’s massacres in Gaza, Trump’s tariffs, and the uncertainty over whether the Ukraine War will end, a bleak picture emerges regarding the direction of the world. However, not everything is so pessimistic. In his speech, Sergey Lavrov replaced the usual phrase collective West with “Europe and the UK.” Except for a couple of jabs at Biden and Obama, Lavrov avoided harsh rhetoric towards the US. Unlike last year, this time he spoke in English, not Russian. Apparently, Russia now sees a need to communicate its position to the English-speaking world. And this shows us the following: even as trade wars, regional crises, and Israel’s genocidal actions continue to grow worldwide, perhaps there’s a positive shift compared to the last few years dominated by global fears of nuclear war; at least now, there is dialogue!