Guy B. Roberts, one of the most influential figures in the Trump administration, former Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Deputy Secretary General at NATO, spoke to Harici: “There is a very powerful Jewish lobby in Washington with access to the highest levels of government. Consequently, there remains strong support for Israel despite allegations of Israeli atrocities in Gaza.”
Under former President Donald Trump, Guy B. Roberts served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs and was former Deputy Secretary General at NATO for weapons of mass destruction defense.
Guy B. Roberts answered Dr. Esra Karahindiba’s questions on the upcoming US Presidential elections, conflicts in the Middle East and US foreign policy.
How do you see the killing of Ismael Haniyah, the leader of Hamas? There are discussions that the assasination came after Netanyahu’s visit to Biden and there might be a kind of deal or Biden’s permission for this killing considering such an act would exterminates all possibilities of a ceasefire, deal or peace. After the attack to Hezbollah leader and Hamas leader now, Türkiye raise the concerns about the wider regional war. What is your take on this?
I believe this is a dangerous escalation that could very well result in a massive response. It is imperative that there be a halt to this cycle of attack and counter attack. Otherwise, there will be no end to the violence that will spill over into future generations.
It is hard to negotiate with someone you assassinate! It isn’t clear yet as to who instigated the attack in Iran. It could have been a faction within either Hamas or the PLO who do not want a ceasefire or settlement negotiations. I do, however, assume it was the Israelis. I fully expect a kinetic response any day now and we will be no closer to resolving the tragedy that is Gaza.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent address to Congress has sparked significant protests besides support by the majority of Congress members. What are your thoughts on the implications of his speech for US-Israel relations and the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape considering the disproportionate acts of Israel against the civilians in Gaza? How do you assess the current regional crisis triggered by Israel’s recent attack on Lebanon? What are the immediate geopolitical repercussions for the Middle East? Considering the historical tensions between Israel and Lebanon, how might this recent escalation affect the stability of neighboring countries and the broader region?
There is a very powerful Jewish lobby in Washington with access to the highest levels of government. Consequently, there remains strong support for Israel despite allegations of Israeli atrocities in Gaza. The question of civilian casualties is a tough one. On the one hand, under the law of armed conflict combatants can only use proportionate force to achieve their military objectives. On the other hand, the principle of distinction requires combatants to separate themselves from civilians during combat. As I see it the Israeli are using is proportionate force and Hamas is hiding among civilians while fighting. Sorting that out will be a challenge.
As long as Hamas and the PLO and others continue to advocate the total destruction of Israel there will never be a just peace. Israel is here to stay. If they would accept that all things are possible and I believe Israel would agree to just about anything.
Given your experience in national security, what are your expectations for the upcoming US elections, and how do you foresee the results impacting US foreign policy and defense strategies?
It is unlikely that foreign policy will have primacy in the election. There may be some debate about providing less support to our NATO allies especially after James David Vance’s statements criticizing our support for Ukraine. The American public is divided on continuing support to Ukraine as is our NATO allies. China’s hegemonic aspirations will be the major foreign policy issue. Key issues in the campaign will be illegal immigration, abortion, and inflation. The current defense budget has bipartisan support totalling about 7% of the US budget. Increasing the defense budget is an issue that will wait until after the election.
With recent news about an assassination attempt on former President Trump, how do you think such incidents affect national security and the public’s trust in the security apparatus? Secret Service has received a serious criticism and what is the latest public perception? Democrats think that the attack has nothing to do with Biden’s campaign and devilizing Trump. What is your take on this?
There was a hearing in Congress yesterday where the Secret Service was roundly criticized. Some see a cover-up and a conspiracy. I’d prefer to wait until the full investigation is completed by the FBI. Meanwhile, Trump will capitalize on the attempt for votes in November.
How do you assess the current state of US-Türkiye relations, particularly in the context of NATO and regional security and Ankara’s position of “balance policy”?
There are two parts to this question. At the working level I’ve seen nothing but professionalism and enthusiastic cooperation between Turkish officials and NATO and the US in particular. At the political level there is a number of tension points that strain Turkey’s relationship. These include Cyprus, Armenia, Kurds, and the 2 million refugees from Syria. These are big issues that don’t lend themselves to easy answers. Water and oil and gas reserves off the coast are additional flashpoints. The US should do more to be attentive to Turkish concerns and issues. It is not helpful that President Erdagon is seeking rapprochement with Syria and being sympathetic with Russia.
What potential scenarios do you foresee in the upcoming US elections, and how might different outcomes influence America’s strategic priorities in terms of defense and international alliances?
As I stated, foreign policy issues, unless something happens like an all out war between Israel and Hezbollah, will take a back seat to the things that concern Americans most. Those are illegal immigration, abortion, inflation and possibly climate change. China will likely be the only broad foreign policy issue and some small side issue of getting NATO allies to do more for their own defense.
What should be the top priorities for the next administration regarding nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs? How can the US ensure it remains prepared for modern security threats?
The main challenge is stopping Iran’s nuclear weapons program before they have one. Several countries (Turkey, Saudi Arabia) have publicly stated that they will seriously pursue such a capability under that circumstance. The US needs to do more to assure allies that its integrated deterrence posture is sufficient to protect them from a NBC attack. Russian use of riot control agents against Ukraine in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, Syria’s use of mustard and chlorine bombs demonstrate how fragile these prohibitions are. I remain very concerned about the potential consequences of using biological agents (COVID) and the massive consequences of their use. Nations working together to build bio surveillance networks will be a key challenge in the next decade.
What are the policies which will be sustained in the American politics no matter what the election results are?
Abortion, growing isolationist views, economic issues, nuclear modernization and defense budgets…
Given the current geopolitical landscape, do you foresee the United States continuing its strategic pressure and military presence in the Asia-Pacific region? If so, what are the key objectives and potential repercussions of this policy for both the U.S. and the countries within the region?
In the 1950s we had a defense organization called SEATO (Southeast Treaty Organization) to provide collectsive security in the region. It didn’t work out and was dissolved. I see the US leading an effort to create a similar type arrangement. We already have defense treaties with Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. We have partner relationships with Thailand and Brunei and good cooperative arrangements with Vietnam. The US continues to increase its military presence in Guam, the Marianas, Solomon Islands in an attempt to counter Chinese territorial claims and influence in the region. Whether the US can build up its presence and influence remains to be seen in light of the debate next year over US defense budget. A recent bi-partisan Congressional Commission concluded the US cannot defend against two simulaneious wars land needs a major plus up in the budget to do so.
