Over one year after the Taliban’s ascent to power in Afghanistan, the security situation has somehow been getting inferior and more attacks against foreign missions have occurred. The economic situation is dire too and there is continuing migration and internal displacement as well.
Since seizing power on August 15 2021, the Taliban have repeatedly claimed they have achieved full territorial control, established security and removed “islands of illegitimate power”.
However, while physical security has improved by some measures but a significant rise in attacks by the Islamic State (IS) also known as Daesh group, targeting Shia and other minorities is one of many reminders that Afghanistan is far from secure. IS also carried suicide attacks mimicking Taliban tactics to target high-profile Taliban members and supporters.
Taliban had once said that they will eliminate Daesh within a month and assured of a strong war against the group. But the situation is quite different at the moment. The Daesh, besides Afghan targets, also carried out deadly attacks against Russians, Pakistanis and Chinese.
Vicious nature of the ongoing conflict
Indeed, Afghanistan is in a transition period, and new non-state actors are emerging. IS is a cover umbrella at the moment, and there is not enough understanding or evidence of the new actors, which is complicating the already vicious nature of the ongoing conflicts in the war-hit country. Undoubtedly, attacks on Russians, Pakistanis and Chinese are the beginning of a new pattern.
Just one day before the attack on a Chinese hotel in downtown Kabul, China’s Ambassador to Afghanistan Wang Yu met with Taliban’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Stanekzai and called for improved security at the embassy in Kabul. Stanekzai said at the meeting the security of foreign diplomatic missions in Afghanistan is their priority.
The meeting was necessary if we take note of the patterns of the recent attacks on Russian and Pakistan embassies. Two Russian embassy staff was among at least six people killed in a suicide bombing in 5th September. Many more were wounded. The attack is the first on a foreign mission in Afghanistan since the Taliban swept to power last year.
The second bombing was against the Pakistani embassy in December 3 that claimed by the Daesh group. The Taliban claimed they have arrested a member of the militant Islamic State group behind the shooting that left one security guard critically injured.
The target was Head of Mission Ubaidur Rehman Nizamani, who remained unhurt in the attack, and Pakistan strongly condemned the attack, but added the embassy would continue to function normally and there were no plans to withdraw diplomats from Kabul.
After these two attacks, China was worried, knowing that Daesh has a history of complicated untraceable attacks and China could be the next target.
China urged citizens to leave Afghanistan
China advised its citizens in Afghanistan to leave the country “as soon as possible,” following a coordinated attack again carried out by Daesh militants on a Chinese-owned hotel in the heart of Kabul.
The evacuation order is aimed at a great setback for Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers who seek foreign investments to improve its fragile economy. China is among few embassies that remained open and active in Afghanistan since Taliban takeover of the country more than a year ago.
Daesh, a key rival of the Taliban, posted pictures of its two fighters who carried out Monday’s attack on Longan Hotel, which left three assailants dead. Emergency hospital said they received 21 casualties, where three of them died upon arrival. Five Chinese citizens were among those wounded in the attack.
Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin called the attack “egregious in nature” and said China was “deeply shocked.”
Wang called for a “thorough investigation” and urged the Taliban government “to take resolute and strong measures to ensure the safety of Chinese citizens, institutions and projects in Afghanistan.”
“In view of the current security situation in Afghanistan, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs once again advised Chinese citizens and institutions in Afghanistan to evacuate from Afghanistan as soon as possible,” Wang said.
China’s interest in Afghanistan
The Taliban has to maintain security of the Chinese firms who have tentatively sought to pursue opportunities in exploiting Afghanistan’s vast, undeveloped resource deposits, especially the Mes Aynak mine that is believed to hold the world’s largest copper deposit.
In October, Taliban government spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid highlighted China as a key part of Afghanistan’s economic development. In return, China vowed to help improve Afghanistan’s economy and called on the United States to unfreeze Afghan assets held abroad and end sanctions on the Taliban government.
China also has economic and mining interests in Afghanistan. China apparently showed willingness to help Taliban in the most proper way in almost all areas, but Beijing wants Taliban commitments to prevent China’s Uyghur opponents from setting up operations in Afghanistan. However, before receiving any threat from the specific group, Daesh was the first to announce hostility with China. Though the Daesh attack did not cause much harm, it was significant as it marked the first major attack on Chinese interests in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Taliban need to deal with the group as several hundreds have been killed in Daesh attacks since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan last year.
Afghanistan needs an anti-terror security belt
As we said that Afghanistan is in a transition period, and there are many non-state actors where the Taliban really don’t have enough knowledge about them, have made it difficult for the Taliban to follow the security dynamics in the context of changing the geopolitical environment of Asia on a daily basis. The Taliban are also so busy in other issues that they can’t just examine the threats, or cannot predict specific targets based on intelligence information. Afghanistan needs an anti-terror security belt to fight Daesh group.
Meanwhile, the US providing Taliban with $40 millions UN managed cash per months to counter terrorism. It is understandable that the US want to contain and control the Taliban; however, this could be backfiring sans a proper mechanism and analyzing of security threats.
