Opinion
Belarusian influence on the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war
Alexander Lukashenko, dubbed Europe’s last dictator, has been in power in Belarus for almost 30 years. Lukashenko, who came to power in Belarus in the 1994 elections, was elected for the fifth time in 2020. The Lukashenko government in Belarus has good relations with the Russian Federation rather than Europe. In geopolitical terms, this creates the profile of a country that is in Europe but maintains Soviet ties in its relations with Russia.
This should not come as a surprise, as there is a certain space that Russia provides for Belarus. Russia is also the main supporter of Lukashenko, who has been in power since the 1994 elections. In this context, it is inevitable that the more Europe’s ties with Russia weaken, the more pro-Russian Belarus will become. This was also the case during the Russian-Ukrainian war. In the aftermath of the Western sanctions against Russia, Russia’s attempt to expand its economic relations with Belarus in alternative areas was reflected in the growing strategic partnership and economic relations with Belarus. Of course, the deployment of troops and the supply of ammunition to Belarus should also be taken into account. But could these good relations between the two countries lead to Belarus’ involvement in the Ukrainian war? The importance of Belarus for Russia in the Ukrainian war is that it acts as a bridgehead. But is Belarus’ approach to the Ukrainian war at the expected level?
Belarusian influence in the Ukrainian war
The relations between Belarus and Russia are explained on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus with an emphasis on geography as well as “close historical and cultural ties between the peoples”[1]. Of course, Russia’s Tsarist period and the subsequent history of the region as an important part of Russian history is important, but after the disintegration of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1991, we do not see a Europe-oriented Belarus like the Baltic states. In this context, Russia is Belarus’ biggest supporter and strategic partner. Indeed, Belarus’ economic relations with Russia, which account for half of its foreign trade, have grown despite the Russian-Ukrainian war. In 2022, two-way trade between the two countries increased by around 15 per cent. Relations with Ukraine, on the other hand, have stagnated, especially in economic terms. From $6.9 billion in 2021, economic relations fell to $1.6 billion in 2022 and $13.8 million in the first seven months of 2023[2].
Belarus’ policy has become important, especially in the context of the “special military operation” launched by Russia in Ukraine in February 2022. As part of this process, Lukashenko welcomed thousands of Russian soldiers into his country. He even acted as a mediator between the Wagner leader Evgeny Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin, especially when the Wagner Uprising of 2023 is remembered. As a result, Wagner soldiers were stationed on Belarusian territory. In addition, from 2023, some of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons were also deployed on Belarusian territory. After this move, Putin declared that it was “a reminder to those who think of inflicting a strategic defeat”[3] on Russia. It should not be forgotten, however, that Belarus did not take a direct part in the conflict. It continues to play an instrumental role in the region through its alliance with Russia as a deterrent.
In addition to being an important ally for Russia, Belarus is also seen as an important instrument of hybrid warfare in foreign policy, especially in its relations with Europe. This is not a new situation. Russia and Belarus have previously pursued policies such as reducing energy supplies, repairing pipelines to Europe, etc. during periods of problems in relations with Europe. In this respect, the relations between the two countries also reflect their common policy of deterrence.
On the other hand, there are dissenting voices in Belarus regarding the war with Ukraine. The fact that Belarus shares a 1,000-kilometre border with Ukraine makes it necessary to consider the dimension of relations. The reason for this should be seen in the context of Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory with a sudden attack on 6 August and the opening of the Kursk front. The war that has been going on in Ukraine for almost three years has now expanded with the opening of a new front on Russian territory. The possibility of Belarus being the next stage should also be considered. Zelenski’s decision to go to Kursk was reportedly motivated by dwindling support from the EU and the US and the aim of strengthening his hand against Russia. But it is also a reflection of the territorial scope of the spreading war. In other words, with Ukraine’s problems in the ongoing war on its own territory, Russia is now experiencing the war on its own territory. Therefore, new fronts may bring new problems and new instrumentalisations.
Cracks in Belarus’s support for Russia?
The influence of Belarus should be reconsidered at this point. This is due to the growing fear of war in Belarus, as reported by PBS[4] in 2023. It is known that Russia has been sending arms and ammunition to Belarus, but the rhetoric of tactical nuclear war has been in the background. However, the possibility has also been raised that the Belarusian army of some 45,000 soldiers would disobey orders if sent into Ukraine. Indeed, according to a Chatham House poll in 2022, 25% of Belarusians supported Russia’s actions, while 97% of respondents opposed the deployment of Belarusian troops[5], indicating that public and government support in Belarus are at very different poles. On the other hand, it should not be forgotten that Lukashenko has not yet taken any direct aggressive steps.
During the war, Ukraine did not take any direct steps against violations by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on Belarusian territory. Similarly, Belarus has begun to deploy mines and troops on the Ukrainian border in response to possible threats. As I mentioned earlier, this indicates that they are also considering the possibility of targeting Belarusian territory as a new front.
Indeed, the Kursk front changed the course of the Ukrainian-Russian war. For Belarus, there is a war going on right next door that requires constant vigilance. That is why Lukashenko has warned that this war could escalate into World War III as a result of developments in the Kursk region. He has also called on Russia and Ukraine to begin peace negotiations. Although it is not clear whether these calls will be heeded in the near future, the possibility of opening new fronts and a nuclear threat should not be forgotten behind Belarus’s calls for restraint. Although Russia may deploy tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory or use them in case of danger in the context of its own nuclear doctrine, the reality of a possible nuclear threat from two nuclear power plants (Kursk and Zaparoye) should not be forgotten.
* Assoc. Prof. Dr. Merve Suna Özel Özcan, Kırıkkale University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of International Relations. e-mail: [email protected]
[1]https://www.mfa.gov.by/en/bilateral/russia/#:~:text=Traditionally%2C%20Russia%20is%20both%20our,of%20the%20Republic%20of%20Belarus.
[2] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraine-belarus-relations-context-russo-ukrainian-war
[3] https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/cn42re7ldeeo
[4] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/belarusians-wary-of-being-drawn-into-russias-war-in-ukraine
[5] https://en.belaruspolls.org/wave-11
Opinion
India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships
Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.
India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.
Today, India’s achievements extend beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.
India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.
India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.
The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.
Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.
India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.
These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.
To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.
India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.
The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.
In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.
Opinion
Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa
In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.
History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.
Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.
Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.
AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS
Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.
Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.
In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”
China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.
THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY
It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.
The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.
The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.
Opinion
The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues
BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.
Allan Wilson, Journalist
Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.
“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”
Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.
For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.
The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.
“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.
A statue, a warning
The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.
The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.
For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”
Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.
The shrinking window
Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.
This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.
Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.
A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.
The international dimension
The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”
Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.
For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.
“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.
This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.
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