The recent ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, following ten days of intense jihadist attacks, has triggered widespread speculation regarding the factors behind this rapid political collapse. Emerging analyses suggest that international political maneuvers may have played a decisive role in this unprecedented event.
Michael Maier, a journalist at the German daily Berliner Zeitung, provocatively asks: “Assad’s fall: A fiasco for Putin or collusion with Trump?” He contends that the swift jihadist takeover of Damascus represents “a clear defeat for Russian President Vladimir Putin.”
Maier asserts that if Russia was caught off guard by these developments, it marks a significant failure of Russian intelligence—on par with its missteps in 2014 during the Ukraine crisis. Citing The New York Times, Maier notes that the rebel offensive was months in the making, with meticulous planning preceding Assad’s ouster.
Maier draws parallels between Russia’s withdrawal of warships from Syria’s Tartous naval base and the chaotic American exit from Afghanistan. He highlights that the implications extend far beyond Syria:
China, reliant on the military strength of Russia and Iran to project influence in the Middle East, now faces a precarious regional situation.
Turkey and Israel emerge as key beneficiaries. Maier argues that both countries have militarily facilitated Assad’s fall and may now pursue territorial gains amidst Syria’s power vacuums.
Maier further points out the shocking ease with which rebel forces advanced to Damascus, seemingly unopposed, as the Syrian army “almost disappeared.” He notes, “Assad was in Moscow for a prolonged period before his downfall. It’s unclear if he ever returned to Syria.” The swift abandonment of previously hard-fought positions by Syrian, Russian, and Iranian forces over the past 13 years underscores the speed of this geopolitical shift.
A U.S.-Russia grand bargain?
Speculation about a possible “grand bargain” between Washington and Moscow is growing. Maier references recent comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested that America’s involvement in Syria should remain limited. However, the U.S. has simultaneously announced that 900 troops will stay in Syria to secure northeastern oil fields.
Maier posits that Russia might benefit from such a deal by redirecting its military focus to Ukraine, consolidating its territorial gains there, and achieving a more stable negotiating position. He suggests Assad’s overthrow could be part of a broader geopolitical trade-off, allowing Russia to maintain influence in Syria through military bases while opening a pathway to territorial concessions in Ukraine.
Hungary’s role
Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán has reportedly contributed to discussions surrounding this “grand bargain.” One potential outcome could involve the repatriation of Syrian refugees from Europe and Turkey, a move that would align with Orbán’s domestic and EU policies.
Maier also speculates that the agreement might curb the regional ambitions of Turkey’s Erdoğan and Israel’s Netanyahu, offering a degree of balance in the Middle East.
According to Maier, these developments could be part of a larger U.S. strategy to drive a wedge between Russia and China. He references U.S. journalist Tucker Carlson’s recent interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, where similar ideas were floated.
Regardless of the underlying motivations, Maier concludes, “Putin has some explaining to do to Chinese President Xi Jinping.”
